Progressive Democrats have had some big victories during the 2018 primary season.
On Tuesday, the Boston City councilwoman Ayanna Pressley became the second Democratic primary challenger of the cycle to successfully oust an incumbent. Pressley was instantly (though maybe not correctly) compared to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a young democratic socialist who beat longtime Rep. Joe Crowley in NY-14’s June Democratic primary. And less than two weeks ago, Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum (a black progressive) won the Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary against former Rep. Gwen Graham, the more moderate candidate. And before that, Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (a black progressive) beat Stacey Evans, who wanted to appeal to disaffected Republicans. And Kara Eastman, who favored Medicare-for-All, beat former Rep. Brad Ashford in Nebraska’s 2nd District.
These wins suggest that there’s some energy around both racial diversity and more progressive policy in the Democratic Party. And they raise an obvious question: Who’s the next to fall?
Maybe Delaware senator Tom Carper.
Carper is a relatively moderate Democrat—his DW-NOMINATE score (which basically measures how often senators vote together) puts him on the right side of the Democratic Party in a state where Democrats often win by wide margins. He’s also running against Kerri Harris, a black progressive in a state with a significant nonwhite population. In other words, there’s real commonality between Carper and other Democrats who have had trouble in their primaries.
If there really is a “Democratic Tea Party” (and there’s evidence that democratic socialists aren’t as strong as the Tea Party) you would guess that they would score a win on the Senate side at some point.
That point may or may not be Delaware.
We have basically no recent public polling in this race, so we’re sort of flying blind. And while incumbents usually win, it’s unwise to bet that they’ll never lose, especially when the conditions point to a closer race. Just ask Joe Crowley and Mike Capuano.
But whether or not Harris pulls off an upset, the margin will likely provide us with some valuable information. A narrow or even a modest Carper win should probably count as a show of strength for the Democratic progressive win. And if Carper runs away with the nomination, it’s an important counterpoint to emerging narratives about what’s happening on the left.
