Republicans believe Gov. Rick Scott entering the Florida Senate race will provide a major boost for a party seeking to avoid a Democratic wave in the midterm elections.
After months of holding back one of the worst-kept secret in politics, Scott announced his 2018 campaign against Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. Nelson is running for a fourth term in what many are expecting to be a nasty and expensive race. Scott is a Republican favorite, a top ally of President Trump, and a fundraising howitzer who the GOP believes could help tilt the Senate map in their favor.
“I think it could well make the difference in the majority,” said Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the No. 2-ranking Senate Republican. “He’s run two statewide races in Florida. He’s popular. He’s navigated all the difficult challenges down there from Parkland to hurricane recovery in a really impressive way. I think he’s the real deal.”
The race is likely to be Nelson’s toughest since he won his seat in 2000, largely due to the heavy fundraising deficit he is set to face in what could eclipse the 2016 Pennsylvania Senate contest ($180 million) as the most expensive in history.
According to Dan Eberhart, an Arizona oil investor and donor to Scott and Republicans, the two-term governor is aiming to raise upwards of $110 million for the campaign, with 40 percent of that amount likely to come from out of state. Scott indicated Monday that he is willing to dip into his personal fortune to help out also, pointing to his 2014 re-election when he dumped $13 million into the race, following the $73 million he spent in winning his first term years earlier. In a year when Republicans have been vastly out-raised by Democrats, it’s a nice change of pace for the party in power.
“Republicans have been waiting for this day for months. It’s finally here, and it’s one of the biggest developments on the entire Senate map,” said one GOP strategist. “It’s such a huge gift to Republicans.”
“Nelson’s never faced anything like this,” the strategist added. “Never in his entire career.”
Right after Scott’s announcement, there were signs of concern within the Democratic ranks. A horde of top fundraisers in the party — Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Doug Jones, D-Ala., and Tim Kaine, D-Va., — sent out fundraising pitches to boost the incumbent Democrat. Additionally, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, along with the Senate Majority PAC and others, immediately launched online ad campaigns against Scott, saying he will only “look out for himself.”
Due to Florida’s standing as a pre-eminent swing state in recent elections, Democrats see a down-to-the-wire race coming down the pike and believe the national political scene could be their ticket to a Nelson win.
“Actually I do think Nelson has a slight edge, due to environment,” said Steve Schale, who twice ran former President Barack Obama’s operations in the state. “But last two Govs & last two POTUS all were one point races. No reason to think this isn’t similar kind of margin.”
One issue facing Democrats is their likely inability to go dollar-for-dollar with Scott and the challenge he poses resource-wise. With ten incumbents running in states won by Trump, along with contests in Nevada and Arizona where they hope to go on offense, Democrats will be forced to weigh whether to spend heavily in the Sunshine State or to spread the wealth.
“Democrats are going to have to make a choice: Do they spend money that they don’t have in a race they’re not sure they can win? Or do they put the money in races to defend incumbents that they feel a little bit better about?” said the GOP strategist. “It’s that big of a problem for them.”
The strategist likened Scott’s entrance to Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., seeking re-election at the last minute in 2016 and forcing Democrats to divert resources away from former Rep. Patrick Murphy in the final weeks.
While the fundraising prowess helps, Republicans also point to Scott’s level of organization in the state. Eberhart likened his nascent Senate operation to that of a presidential organization.
“This is not like the congressman trying to step it up a level,” Eberhart said. “This is a serious political juggernaut that’s ready for battle.”
Even Nelson himself acknowledged the financial advantage soon after the announcement, saying the GOP governor has “unlimited money.” This leaves Republicans with a dose of optimism as they look ahead seven months.
“He’s the perfect candidate for Florida,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., co-chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “I think Scott’s got a great foundation. I think he’ll get a lot a lot of support inside Florida and across the nation, so I think he’s going to be a formidable candidate.”
