Just more than one year into the special counsel investigation, the first glow of the light at the end of the tunnel seemed to appear this weekend, thanks to Rudy Giuliani.
Acting in his capacity as President Trump’s personal lawyer, Giuliani told the New York Times that a timeline shared by Robert Mueller’s office said investigators aimed to complete the special counsel probe into whether Trump obstructed the Russia investigation by Sept. 1, so long as the president sits for an interview.
To be clear, of course, the obstruction inquiry is but one part of Mueller’s larger investigation, and his work will continue past that day either way.
Tactically, Giuliani’s decision to publicly reveal the obstruction timeline was a smart one, giving ammunition to the White House and embattled GOP candidates should Mueller exceed that date, dragging into the fall without a conclusion. But, as Nate Silver points out, while Sept. 1 is more than two months before the midterm elections, two months isn’t all that much time.
Depending upon the results of the probe, an end-of-summer announcement could also dramatically reshape the conversation about the rest of the investigation as well, all in the waning days of a competitive and polarizing campaign season.
If Trump is fully cleared, Democrats will have to make a decision whether to accept it and move on, or start questioning the legitimacy of those findings. If Trump is not cleared, it’s an understatement to say Republicans will have much work to do in little time. Giuliani seemed to imply a conclusion by Sept. 1 would make Mueller’s findings a non-issue come November, but it’s almost inevitable those findings will, at best, consume the news cycle and distract candidates from talking about their preferred topics and, at worst, completely shake up the conversation.
As we enter the early days of summer, Giuliani’s revelation that a conclusion in the obstruction probe should be expected before the midterms sets the stage for an incredibly contentious sprint to the finish line after Labor Day.
