Support for President Trump among white evangelicals, one of his key constituencies, slipped in June, a poll taken by the Pew Research Center found.
Trump’s approval rating with the demographic rests at 72%, down 6 percentage points from where a similar poll found it in April, versus a 5-point drop that occurred among the population in general. The share of evangelicals who say they “strongly approve” of the job he’s doing, specifically in the areas of the coronavirus pandemic and the protests following the death of George Floyd, is also down, from 67% to 59%.
While support for the president among evangelicals remains high, political analysts have said that to win in November, Trump needs to increase his support among them. According to the poll, 82% of evangelicals say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Trump, chiefly because they feel they cannot vote for former Vice President Joe Biden.
Christian Broadcasting Network chief political analyst David Brody told Politico in mid-June that Trump needs to get more than 80% of the evangelical vote if he hopes to win in 2020.
“Here’s the problem for Trump: He needs to be at 81 percent or north to win reelection. Any slippage and he doesn’t get a second term, and that’s where Joe Biden comes into play,” Brody said. “In this environment, with everything from the coronavirus to George Floyd and Trump calling himself the ‘law-and-order president,’ Biden could potentially pick off a percent or 2 from that 81 percent number.”
Pew polling found that in 2016, about 77% of evangelicals voted for Trump while only 16% voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The poll, which was taken in mid-June, was colored by recent memories of Trump’s controversial visit to St. John’s Episcopal Church, as well as a Supreme Court decision favoring transgender rights, with the majority opinion written by Trump appointee Neil Gorsuch. Gorsuch’s flip to the liberal wing of the court drew outrage from many religious conservatives.
