The American public discourse was roiled by President Trump’s cancellation of his Camp David summit with the Taliban and his announcement that talks with the insurgent group are “dead.” But the feeling among the majority of Afghans is one of relief.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who had been frozen out of the U.S. negotiations with the Taliban, can breathe a sigh of relief. His chances are now far better to win the Sept. 28 presidential elections.
Afghans in general were worried that the U.S. government would abandon them, giving an advantage to the insurgent group that could lead to further chaos and instability. There were fierce debates inside Kabul about what the possible peace deal with the Taliban would mean for human rights, democracy, freedom of speech, and the hard gains made during the past 18 years.
The peace deal paved the way to presidential elections, but the fighting has resumed. Two separate suicide attacks in Kabul and Parwan killed at least 48 people and injured dozens of others. One attack occurred at an election rally in Parwan province, where Ghani was due to speak. The other blast happened near the U.S. embassy in Kabul. Kabul remains in the dark and without power because the Taliban have blown up the infrastructure that transmits electricity from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Surprised with Trump’s tweets regarding the halting of peace talks, perplexed Taliban leaders have have turned to Moscow and Iran (major U.S. rivals in the region) to generate pressure for the talks’ resumption. Iran and Russia have been trying to increase their influence in the region and reportedly have been providing military training, financing, and weapons to the Taliban.
What should be the next step? War is in the interest of neither the Taliban nor the United States. The longer the war drags on, more people are killed and the country is pushed backward. Yet either a peace deal with concessions to the Taliban or U.S. withdrawal without a peace deal means more violence and a greater vacuum for brutal enemies such as ISIS, al Qaeda, and other terrorist networks to fill.
Meanwhile, the terrorists can look forward to next week’s election as another Taliban target.
Afghans will vote on Sept. 28. Afghanistan’s 2014 elections were flawed, but heavy voter turnout demonstrated that Afghan citizens prefer democracy over Taliban rule. It is in the interest of the U.S. and western allies to strengthen the Afghan state by fully supporting the September 2019 elections. Once the new government is in place, the U.S. and Afghan governments should seek a peace deal jointly, assuming the Taliban really wants one, which will be durable and acceptable for the majority of Afghans.
Afghans are tired of war and wish for an end to the fighting. There is a unanimous national and international consensus in favor of finding a political settlement that incorporates the Taliban into the Afghan political system. Every Afghan hopes for peace, but it must be a sustainable, long-term peace agreement that is acceptable to both sides and preserves the Afghan constitution, the nation’s institutions, the rights of women, democracy, and security.
It would be wise for the Taliban to engage into an intra-Afghan dialogue to orchestrate a workable broad-based government preserving the gains that have been made. As Ghani and Trump both pointed out, there can be no peace without a truce or ceasefire. Taliban should consider that as a precondition for the resumption of peace talks.
Ahmad Shah Katawazai is a member of the Academy of Sciences of Afghanistan and a former diplomat at the Afghan Embassy Washington D.C. Follow him on twitter @askatawazai.
