Political opportunities are plentiful for Republicans in 2022, and now they spy another developing in domestic aftershocks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Chief among the political risks for President Joe Biden, Republican strategists believe, is that war in Europe involving a major energy-producing nation, Russia, will exacerbate historically high inflation in the United States and send crude oil and natural gas prices sky-high. Secondarily, Republicans speculate that any chance Biden has of reviving his political standing before the midterm elections could be hampered by a conflict if voters conclude the president is being whipsawed by events.
Republican strategist David Carney, who is based in New Hampshire, said the political peril for the Democrats is tied to how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects “gas prices, inflation,” and views of Biden’s leadership as it relates to “overall competence.”
Domestic problems tend to predominate in midterm elections, and that is likely to be the case this November. Polling shows voters are worried most about inflation, rising crime, illegal immigration, gun violence, healthcare, and climate change. But foreign policy and national security matters occasionally affect midterm election voting. It happened in 2014 in former President Barack Obama’s second term, when the rise of ISIS caused voters to worry about terrorism.
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Roughly eight months before Election Day and with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine barely a week old, it is uncertain if the war will significantly affect the choices voters make in the fall, if at all. Voters are clearly paying attention to the war, said David Winston, a Republican pollster in Washington.
“How does it relate to their day-to-day with their family? I don’t think that’s clear at this point,” he explained. “Typically, domestic economic issues have always been a dominant element when there are problems. And inflation is clearly a problem.”
Biden has come under heavy criticism from Republicans for what they argue was a failure to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine.
The initial economic and diplomatic sanctions that the administration levied against Moscow in the run-up to the invasion were insufficient, Republicans said. And broadly speaking, Republicans believe the president’s mishandling of the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan precipitated the war by giving Putin the impression the U.S. would essentially look the other way in the face of any unprovoked and unlawful aggression.
Democrats have responded to Republican criticism by crediting administration diplomacy for creating the conditions for a unified European and NATO response to Moscow that in some instances has been even more aggressive than Washington’s.
Biden has implemented tougher sanctions on Russia, and Putin personally, since the invasion began. During his first State of the Union address Tuesday evening, the president referred to Putin as a “dictator” and signaled that more pressure on the Russian strongman was on the way, warning in an ad-libbed line that “he has no idea what’s coming.”
Some Republicans acknowledge that Biden may yet handle the crisis in Eastern Europe in a manner that improves his job approval rating and makes Democrats on the 2022 ballot more competitive. “There could be an upside,” said a GOP strategist in the Midwest. But if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine works its way into voters’ lists of priorities in the coming months, most Republicans are betting it will accrue to their benefit.
Biden defeated former President Donald Trump in large part because voters craved normalcy and competence. As crises have mushroomed on Biden’s watch and doubts have grown about his competency, his job approval rating has fallen to 40%, where it has hovered for months.
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not directly Biden’s fault. But Republicans see a scenario in which voters see the war in Europe, with its implications for the economy and U.S. national security, as another reason to rebuke the White House in November to register their disappointment with a president who has not steered the country back to normal nor seemed able to manage events in a way that is reassuring or provides confidence.
“It’s going to be an issue, in a broader sense, of … leadership,” a Republican operative said.
