AT LEAST THEY’RE TALKING: The only progress made in the nearly eight hours of talks in Geneva between U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was that each side was able to tell the other that its key demands were non-negotiable.
“We were firm … in pushing back on security proposals that are simply nonstarters for the United States,” said Sherman in a conference call for reporters. “We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s ‘Open Door’ policy, which has always been central to the NATO Alliance. We will not forgo bilateral cooperation with sovereign states that wish to work with the United States.”
In a separate briefing for reporters, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that “no progress” was made, and he insisted that “For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine never, never, ever becomes a member of NATO … We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances, not safeguards, but guarantees.”
“But I don’t consider the situation hopeless,” Ryabakov added. “I think the usefulness of the talks in Geneva is mainly that, for the first time, we were able to talk about issues that before existed but as if behind the scenes.”
“We had serious, as I said, straightforward, businesslike, candid discussions,” said Sherman, who in the past has worked with Ryabkov on the Syria chemical weapons and Iran nuclear deals. “We know each other very, very well. So we can be very straight-up with each other to the extent that we can be, knowing that we are here for our national interests and are very loyal to those national interests.”
THE US DEMANDS: While Russia told the U.S. that it has no plans to invade Ukraine and that the massive military buildup on Ukraine’s border are merely maneuvers and exercises, Sherman said she called on Russia to demonstrate its non-hostile intentions by pulling back its troops
“They can prove that, in fact, they have no intention by de-escalating and returning troops to barracks,” she said. “Return the troops to barracks or tell us what exercises are ongoing and what their purpose is. That’s not at all clear. One doesn’t normally send 100,000 troops to a border just to sort of exercise. It’s quite extraordinary, and it is all on the border of Ukraine. So, clearly, it was meant to send a decisive message.”
WHAT THE US IS OFFERING: While refusing to budge on the big sticking points, Sherman offered two areas where she thought accommodations could be made to ease Russia’s security concerns, so long as any concessions were met by reciprocal moves on the other side.
“We … made clear that the United States is open to discussing the future of certain missile systems in Europe — along the lines of the now defunct INF Treaty between the U.S. and Russia,” said Sherman. “We shared that we are also open to discussing ways we can set reciprocal limits on the size and scope of military exercises and to improve transparency about those exercises.”
Sherman is at NATO headquarters today, briefing allies ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of the NATO-Russia Council.
US CAN’T TELL IF RUSSIA USING TALKS AS PRETENSE FOR WAR
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NOT HAPPENING TODAY: What was planned as a closed joint hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Armed Services Committee this morning on “U.S. Policy on Afghanistan” has been postponed until later this month.
The secret testimony from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will now come before a classified session of the Armed Services Committee on Jan. 26 at 10 a.m.
ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER NORTH KOREA MISSILE LAUNCH: North Korea fired off another ballistic missile this morning, Korea time, the second test in a week.
The missile was launched from the northern province of Jagang and traveled some 430 miles before plunging into the East Sea, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, which said the missile reached a speed of Mach 10, ten times the speed of sound.
“We assess that it has improved compared with the ballistic missile launched on Jan. 5,” the JCS as reported by South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.
At the Pentagon yesterday, spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. was still assessing whether last week’s test was of a sophisticated hypersonic missile with a maneuverable warhead, but he noted under U.S. resolutions, all ballistic missile tests by the North are banned.
GITMO TRANSFER APPROVED: Guled Duran, a Guantanamo detainee from Somalia who has never been charged with a crime, has been approved for transfer to a third country, the New York Times reports, making him the first high-value detainee brought there from a CIA black site to be approved for release.
The Pentagon did not confirm the report, but spokesman John Kirby said the Biden administration is still working to fulfill the president’s promise to close the prison camp in Cuba, which turns 20 today.
“We are in a review right now about the way forward,” Kirby said at yesterday’s Pentagon briefing. “My colleagues at the National Security Council staff. They’re running that process. But we continue to be committed to closing down that facility. And of course, that means whittling down the population, which is very small right now.”
There are 39 prisoners left at Guantanamo, down from a peak of 680 in 2003, and Kirby gave the following breakdown.
“Thirteen of the remaining detainees are eligible for transfer. The diplomatic processes underway to work to transfer, repatriate them as appropriate,” he said. “Fourteen are eligible for a periodic review board. All of them have undergone a review since the start of this administration. Ten are involved in the military commission’s process, with charges pending or a trial or pretrial proceedings that are underway, and two detainees have been convicted in military commissions.”
Included in the 10 who face trial by military commission is Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, the self-proclaimed mastermind of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The two convicted include a former Maryland resident, Majid Khan, who is expected to complete his sentence next month.
LEADERSHIP CHANGES ON THE HASC: Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, the lead Republican of the House Armed Services Committee, has announced that two of the committee’s subcommittees will be getting new ranking members, who would be in line to take over as chairmen should the GOP retake the House after the midterm elections.
Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn will serve as the ranking member of the subcommittee on strategic forces, while and Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, a former Green Beret, will be the ranking member of the subcommittee on readiness.
AIR FORCE NOMINEES: Among the latest nominations sent to the Senate by the White House are Frank Calvelli, to be an assistant secretary of the Air Force, and Kristyn E. Jones, to also be an assistant secretary of the Air Force.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US can’t tell if Russia using talks as pretense for war
Washington Examiner: Navy extends boot camp for ‘character development’
Washington Examiner: Army reverses reprimand for officer who attended Black Lives Matter protest
New York Times: Russia Positioning Helicopters, in Possible Sign of Ukraine Plans
Honolulu Star-Advertiser: U.S. Military Tracking Russian Military Vessel Near Hawaii
Washington Post: Navy complies with order to fix Pearl Harbor facility that leaked fuel into tap water
Stars and Stripes: US military elevates coronavirus restrictions in South Korea in wake of latest surge
Air Force Magazine: USAF Aircraft Availability on Long Downward Trend, CBO Says
Defense News: The Air Force and Boeing haven’t yet fixed the troubled KC-46 Pegasus vision system
AP: Biden’s low profile on Guantanamo rankles as prison turns 20
New York Times: 20 Years Later, the Story Behind the Guantánamo Photo That Won’t Go Away
19fortyfive.com: Who Is Michael Kurilla, the Next Potential Commander of CENTCOM?
Wall Street Journal: China Names Former Xinjiang Commander To Lead Troops In Hong Kong
19fortyfive.com: Iran Posts Video Simulating Missiles Blasting Israeli Nuclear Reactor
Defense News: For their next acts, former Trump administration DoD officials look beyond traditional defense contractors
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: The Crackdown in Kazakhstan Is a Win for Russia (Or Is It?)
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Forget Ukraine: Is Russia Slowly Taking Control of Kazakhstan?
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: How Putin’s plans for Ukraine could pay off
The Cipher Brief: Dynamics in the Middle East are shifting but in which direction?
Calendar
TUESDAY | JANUARY 11
10 a.m. 216 Dirksen — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing: “The Domestic Terrorism Threat One Year After January 6.” with testimony from Assistant Attorney General for National Security Matthew Olsen; and Jill Sanborn, executive assistant director of the FBI’s National Security Branch http://judiciary.senate.gov
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Understanding Recent Turmoil in Kazakhstan,” with former U.S. Ambassador to Kazakhstan George Krol https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/understanding-recent-turmoil-kazakhstan
10:30 a.m. — New America virtual discussion: “Guantanamo at Twenty: What is the Future of the Prison Camp?” with Karen Greenberg, director of the Fordham Law School’s Center on National Security and author of “Subtle Tools: The Dismantling of American Democracy From the War on Terror to Donald Trump”; Thomas Wilner, co-founder of Close Guantanamo; Andy Worthington, co-founder of Close Guantanamo and author of The Guantanamo Files: The Stories of the 774 Detainees in America; and Peter Bergen, vice president of global studies and fellows at New America https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/events
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility: The Current Crisis, the Response, and the Way Forward,” with testimony from Vice Adm. Yancy Lindsey, commander, Navy Installations Command; Rear Adm. Blake Converse, deputy commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet; Rear Adm. John Korka, commander, Naval Facilities Engineering Systems Command; Rear Adm. Peter Stamatopoulos, commander, Naval Supply Systems Command; and Capt. Michael McGinnis, Pacific fleet surgeon, commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — House Appropriations Legislative Branch Subcommittee hearing on “Security of the Capitol Campus since the Attack of January 6, 2021,” with testimony from House Sergeant-at-Arms William J. Walker; U.S. Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger; and Architect of the Capitol J. Brett Blanton http://appropriations.house.gov
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Evolving at the Pace of Cyber Threats,” with Kevin Walsh, director of information technology and security, Government Accountability Office; David Ortega, principal solutions architect, Thales Digital Identity and Security Group; and James Hanson, group publisher, Federal Nextgov https://www.govexec.com/feature/Evolving-at-the-Pace-of-Cyber-Threats
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 12
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual “Schriever Spacepower Forum” with Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency; and Christopher Stone, senior fellow for space studies, Mitchell Institute Spacepower Advantage Center of Excellence https://mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual event: “The Crisis in Kazakhstan,” with Lisa Curtis, director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, CNAS; Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director, Transatlantic Security Program, CNAS; Paul Stronski, senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for international Peace; and Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer, CNAS https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event-the-crisis-in-kazakhstan
10 a.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Is Governance the Taliban’s Achilles Heel? Assessing Five Months of Rights and Services Reversals in Afghanistan,” with Rahmatullah Amiri, independent researcher and author; Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia at USIP; Belquis Ahmadi, senior program officer for Afghanistan at USIP; and Andrew Watkins, senior expert on Afghanistan at USIP https://www.usip.org/events/governance-talibans-achilles-heel
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “China’s Coercive Missile Strategy and the US Response,” with Mark Lewis, executive director, Emerging Technologies Institute, National Defense Industrial Association; Christopher Yeaw, associate executive director, strategic deterrence and nuclear programs, National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska; Timothy Walton, fellow, Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, Hudson Institute; and Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative, Hudson Institute https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-china
2 a.m. EST/8:30 a.m. CET — NATO’s Military Committee, its highest military authority, meets for two days in Brussels, Belgium, with opening remarks by Adm. Rob Bauer, of the Royal Netherlands Navy, chair of the Military Committee. The meeting includes all the military chefs from the 30 NATO nations, as well as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Gen. Tod Wolters. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Emerging Technologies & Long Range Strike,” with Army Lt. Gen. L. Neil Thurgood, director for hypersonics, directed energy, space and rapid acquisition in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics and Technology https://www.csis.org/events/emerging-technologies-long-range-strike
7:30 a.m. EST/1:30 p.m. CET Brussels, Belgium — Press conference at NATO headquarters by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg following the meeting of the NATO-Russia Council https://www.nato.int
THURSDAY | JANUARY 13
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on nominations of Celeste Wallander to be assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, Melissa Dalton to be assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs, and John Plumb to be assistant secretary of defense for space policy
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with former South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Wi Sung-lac, foreign policy adviser to South Korean Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-Myung; and Sue Mi Terry, director of the Wilson Center’s Center for Korean History and Public Policy https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-39-wi-sung-lac
3:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation with Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
2 p.m. — Quincey Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on “Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong,” with author Alexander Downe, associate professor at George Washington University and co-director of the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies; and Trita Parsi, co-founder and former president of the National Iranian American Council https://quincyinst.org/event/book-talk
5 p.m. — Institute of World Politics webinar: “Global Security in the Era of Advanced AI,” with Mark Beall, senior manager for strategy at Amazon Web Services https://www.eventbrite.com/e/global-security-in-the-era
5:30 p.m. — National Security Institute NatSec Nightcap event: “Maintaining U.S. Global Leadership and Confronting Tomorrow’s Threats,” with former U.S. Central Commander retired Army Gen. Joseph Votel; and Jamil Jaffer, founder and executive director, National Security Institute https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu/natsec-nightcap
FRIDAY | JANUARY 14
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and U.S. Naval Institute event: “Maritime Security Dialogue: 5th Fleet Mission and Operations Update,” with Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, commander, U.S. naval forces, Central Command, U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces; and retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, chief executive officer and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“We are fed up with loose talk, half-promises, misinterpretations of what happened at different forms of negotiations behind closed doors … We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances, not safeguards, but guarantees.”
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, after Monday’s talks in Geneva in which the U.S. rejected Russia’s demands to curb NATO expansion.
