Montana Gov. Steve Bullock is an anomaly. He’s the Democratic governor of a rural, red state and a moderate who’s won reelection in counties Trump swept in 2016. But will his “electability,” as he calls it, be enough to move his long-shot campaign forward? He certainly thinks so.
“I come from a state where a lot of people voted for Donald Trump. Let’s not kid ourselves. He will be hard to beat,” Bullock said during last night’s Democratic primary debate. “Look, I’m a pro-choice, pro-union, populist Democrat who won three elections in a red state. Not by compromising our values, but by getting stuff done. That’s how we win back the places we lost: showing up, listening, focusing on the challenges of everyday Americans.”
Bullock certainly seems to understand Trump’s appeal. And his policies might just be moderate enough to win over the centrist economic voters who went red for Trump in 2016 — if, of course, he can win over the Democratic Party’s left-leaning primary base.
As governor, Bullock remains pretty popular: His net approval rating in the first quake of 2019 was +26 points, according to Morning Consult, and in 2016 he won a second gubernatorial term with 50% of the vote, 15 points more than Hillary Clinton. This is a remarkable achievement, considering Montana has traditionally considered itself conservative — a point he could hardly stop making last night.
But Bullock’s success in Big Sky Country won’t be enough to secure the Democratic nomination, and it might not be enough to win a national general election. Montana might lean Republican, but party identification is relatively weak in the state, making it easier for a reasonable Democrat, like Bullock, to be elected. Montana is perhaps one of the only states in which third-party candidates have been historically successful. The state also has a high elasticity score, according to FiveThirtyEight, which means it has a high number of persuadable voters.
The national voters Bullock hopes to “convert” aren’t going to be nearly as persuadable. The moderates Trump won over in 2016 are deeply concerned with the direction of the Democratic Party. A HuffingtonPost/YouGov poll earlier this year found that 41% of Americans said the Democratic Party was too extreme, and many of the Democrats’ key policies, like “Medicare for all,” are beginning to scare off moderate voters. Not to mention Bullock’s lack of name recognition. Before last night, when he made his debate stage debut, 54% of potential Democratic primary voters nationwide had never heard of Bullock, according to a Morning Consult poll.
Bullock could be right: He might very well be one of the Democratic Party’s best chances at beating Trump. Unfortunately, his party and its base voters don’t care.
