Hats off to Ukrainian planners for a brilliant maneuver — feinting a counteroffensive in the Kherson Oblast, then launching their main effort into the Kharkiv Oblast, catching Russian ground forces off-guard. This has forced the Russians to abandon their equipment, adopt civilian clothing, escape back to the Russian side of the border, and thus cede previously captured territory back to the Ukraine military.
The territory taken is significant in size and symbolic value. While actual battle stats remain elusive, somewhere between a rout and a series of decisive victories, one must remain vigilant to Murphy’s Laws of War: “If your attack is going well, it’s an ambush.” Surprise, speed, and violence of action are all critical, but situational awareness and communication on the battlefield are essential to a well-coordinated attack. The enemy always gets a vote. So while images of abandoned tanks, armored personnel carriers, ammunition, and equipment are evident, we haven’t seen abundant images of Russian soldiers surrendering. If they were available, they would be posted — Ukraine must remain cautiously optimistic.
Russia has not thrown in the towel just yet. While soldiers have escaped back across the border, they will likely be rounded up, reassembled, and thrust back into the fight elsewhere. For that very reason, while pursuit across the border is not an option, their physical presence remains a threat, and therefore, a valid target for artillery and drone strikes. No sanctuary should be afforded.
Putin’s initial reaction has been more artillery — a resumption of bombing civilian targets in the Kharkiv area — knocking out the electric and water services. Russian forces continue to occupy the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant as well, a move clearly meant to threaten or blackmail Ukraine and Europe with a nuclear disaster, posing another escalation threat.
Still, the point of the day goes to Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who coined the phrase “Westsplaining” when describing how the West, i.e., the United States and other pre-Soviet-Union-collapse NATO member countries lectured Ukraine and other former-Soviet-Union-occupied countries on Russian capabilities. His message was, “No more Westsplaining. No more dithering. No more negotiations with terrorists. Those who doubted Ukraine’s strength should be apologizing.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has never been concerned with fears of escalation, only his country’s extermination. He never considered negotiations to cede Ukrainian territory in exchange for a ceasefire or peace, only the return of all Russian-occupied territory — Crimea and the Donbas region. And now, after nearly seven months of combating Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special military operation, Ukraine is on the cusp of bringing a collapse of Russian ground forces.
The West needs to listen to Kyiv more and Westsplain less. Give Ukraine what it needs to get it done.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), DIA, NSA, and NGA. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
