‘THE RESPONSIBLE AND PRUDENT PATH FORWARD’: For the third time in this budget cycle, Congress will fund the government on a temporary basis at last year’s level because of its inability to come to an agreement on a full-year budget.
Yesterday, the House passed a continuing resolution, 272-162, that will keep the money flowing for another month, until March 11. The stopgap bill now goes to the Senate.
“It is the responsible and prudent path forward that eliminates the risk of a shutdown,” said Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York.
‘IS THIS MERELY AN INCONVENIENCE?’: On Capitol Hill, lawmakers expressed growing frustration over the cascading effect of continued delays.
“We’re now spending money for the Pentagon that was decided more than a year ago, and that’s because of our failure to have a defense appropriation bill,” said Mississippi Republican Sen. Roger Wicker, during the Senate confirmation hearing for the new head of the U.S. Central Command,
“People in this town, from the administration, really to DOD, to the Congress, seem to sort of view this as an inconvenience and a little bit of a lapse. Is this merely an inconvenience?” Wicker asked Army Lt. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, in line to be the chief of the U.S. Central Command.
“I can tell you my personal experience in the 18th Airborne Corps. When we have prolonged CRs, it affects readiness. It affects our ability to train. It affects our combat training centers, our rotor-wing flight hours,” Kurilla responded. “It can disrupt modernization. I have an Armored Brigade Combat Team that’s in a yearlong modernization window … CRs can disrupt that.”
“And lastly, it can affect quality of life,” he said. “It stops the prevention of new starts, such as military construction for barracks, motor pools, and child development centers.”
TIME TO CANCEL VACATION? Among the 162 votes against the Continuing Resolution in the House yesterday was Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, who called on his colleagues to skip their scheduled two-week recess and work something out.
“Rather than cancel an unnecessary — and unearned — vacation, we’re once again punting on our most basic responsibility: funding the U.S. government,” Gallagher said in a statement. “This is crazy. Continuing Resolutions are a disaster, particularly for our military, and if negotiators still can’t reach an agreement five months after their deadline, we need to cancel recess, lock ourselves in a room, and get to work until we’ve come to an agreement.”
“We’re almost there. You know, this is the grind. We’re making sausage. It’s painful to live through,” said Democratic Rep. Brenda Lawrence of Michigan, vice chairwoman of the House Appropriations Committee, on CNN. “You know, we are in the most partisan state that I can recall. Everything is about partisan. But our budget is where we come together, Democrats and Republicans.
“We are going to do the CR and continue to fight for another day where we can get this passed this budget,” Lawrence said.
INFLATION IS THE THIEF OF BUYING POWER: Last year, members of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees congratulated themselves for the bipartisan agreement to add upwards of $35 billion to the defense budget originally submitted by the Biden Pentagon.
But since then, inflation has raged, and by the time the Pentagon gets the extra money, it won’t be worth nearly as much, argues retired Maj. Gen. Arnold Punaro, a former Senate Armed Services Committee staff director and current board chairman for the National Defense Industrial Association.
“While Congress continues to punt their responsibilities, the Defense Department has lost $30 billion in purchasing power since October 1, 2021,” Punaro said in an email. “This is particularly harmful to the defense industrial base, especially the thousands of small businesses that provide the backbone of the supply chain for the high technologies essential to countering our peer adversaries.”
How does Punaro come up with the $30 billion figure? The inability of the Pentagon to access the increase of $36 billion enacted by the 2022 National Defense Authorization Acts amounts to $3 billion a month, he figures.
“The higher than budgeted inflation that eroded purchasing power, so that’s another $2-$3 billion a month. So, five months at $6 billion a month in lost purchasing power is $30 billion,” he says.
POORER BY THE MINUTE: Mackenzie Eaglen, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, makes the same argument in an opinion piece published today.
“The Pentagon is losing between $4 and 6 billion a month when accounting for the loss of spending increase Congress provided this year … and inflation running from three to 7%,” Eaglen writes.
“While the Hill voted to authorize a 5% topline increase of $36 billion, appropriators have yet to ‘cut the check’ for these finances. The federal government is stuck at Trump-era levels of spending — to say nothing of hundreds of misaligned accounts and priorities due to the fiscal freeze,” she says. “In addition to the spending lock, another two to four billion dollars are essentially lost each month for the military as those funds are being used to instead cover inflation costs far above planned levels, with no end in sight.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Judiciary Committee hears from various legal experts and human rights advocates at 10 a.m. in a hearing on “Targeted Killing and the Rule of Law: The Legal and Human Costs of 20 Years of U.S. Drone Strikes.”
At yesterday’s confirmation hearing for CENTCOM nominee Lt. Gen. Michael Kurilla, Massachusetts Democrat Sen. Elizabeth Warren pressed Kurilla on what he would do to reduce the risk to innocent civilians in military operations.
“Senator, every civilian casualty is a tragedy. I know that there is a process right now down at CENTCOM, and if confirmed, I will look to see how I can improve upon that process,” Kurilla replied.
“General, if confirmed, will you commit to prioritizing reforms that will mitigate civilian casualties resulting from U.S. operations and improving accountability and transparency at the Pentagon on this issue?” Warren asked.
“Senator, I will.”
CENTCOM COMMANDER TO GO FROM CAPITOL HILL TO EUROPE FOR DEPLOYMENT
MORE ON THE CHAOS IN KABUL: Through a Freedom of Information request, the Washington Post has obtained a 2,000 page Army investigative report that, while focused on the deadly ISIS attack that killed 13 American troops and 170 Afghans, also provides new insight into the frustrations of senior military leaders about the lack of planning for the massive evacuation effort.
“Military personnel would have been ‘much better prepared to conduct a more orderly’ evacuation, Navy Rear Adm. Peter Vasely, the top U.S. commander on the ground during the operation, told Army investigators, ‘if policymakers had paid attention to the indicators of what was happening on the ground,’” the story from reporters Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton recounted.
“There was frustration with the National Security Council and sort of this understanding that if you were going to evacuate, and you knew you needed to evacuate, needed to stage people, you needed to stage food, you need to be ready,” Lamothe said on CNN yesterday. “And there was friction to that in terms of when you would sequence evacuation and start making it more obvious that you needed to do it.”
Among the revelations in the report: “At the embassy, U.S. troops went room to room on Aug. 15, pressing people to meet deadlines and get ready to go, an Army officer from the 10th Mountain Division told investigators. Some State Department personnel were ‘intoxicated and cowering in rooms,’ and others were ‘operating like it was day-to-day operations with absolutely no sense of urgency or recognition of the situation,’ the officer said.”
WALKING A FINE LINE ON IRAN: “Iran is the No. 1 destabilizing factor in the Middle East right now with their malign behavior,” testified Kurilla at yesterday’s Senate hearing, but the nominee to head CENTCOM avoided taking a position on whether rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was a good idea.
“The U.S. policy of Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon — I believe that any enforceable agreement should make sure that they do not get a nuclear weapon,” Kurilla said, the key word being “enforceable.”
“I’m not aware of the exact details of the ongoing negotiations, but I am supportive of any enforceable agreement that limits Tehran’s ability to gain nuclear weapons,” he said at another point, but he did concede that there is a risk with sanctions relief that “Iran would use some of that money to support its proxies and terrorism in the region. And if they did, it could increase risk to our forces in the region.”
’FIVE MINUTES AWAY’: IS IRAN CLOSER TO NUCLEAR DEAL OR NUCLEAR BOMB?
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russia to pull troops out of Belarus following exercises
Washington Examiner: Army General tapped to lead CENTCOM promises investigation into attack on Syrian dam on ‘no strike’ list
Washington Examiner: CENTCOM commander to go from Capitol Hill to Europe for deployment
Washington Examiner: Army unveils first climate change strategy, calls for net-zero GHG emissions by 2050
Washington Examiner: ‘Five minutes away’: Is Iran closer to nuclear deal or nuclear bomb?
Washington Post: Putin’s Pieces Nearly In Place
Stars and Stripes: Russian Amphibious Ships In Black Sea Exercise Raise More Questions About Putin’s Intentions
AP: Ukraine projects calm over Russia fears despite US rhetoric
New York Times: Putin Is Operating on His Own Timetable, and It May Be a Long One
Breaking Defense: Defense Department Still Lacks FY23 Topline Budget Figure: Wormuth
USNI News: CMC Berger: Marine Corps Needs Both LAW And Large Amphibious Ships
Popular Mechanics: How the World’s Greatest Aircraft Carrier Became a $13 Billion Fiasco
Washington Times: China Fumes As U.S. Approves $100 Million Patriot Missile Deal With Taiwan
Reuters: North Korea Boasts Of ‘Shaking The World’ By Testing Missiles That Can Strike U.S.
New York Times: North Korea Builds a Base Near China to Store ICBMs
Task & Purpose: An Army officer may have nuked his career with a single tweet
Air Force Magazine: Air Force Grants First Religious Accommodations to COVID-19 Vaccine
Air Force Magazine: Inflation to be 2023 Budget Request Headline, Experts Say
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: How Inflation Makes The US Military Poorer Overnight
19fortyfive.com: How Inflation Makes the US Military Poorer Overnight (Mackenzie Eaglen AEI)
19fortyfive.com: China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Has a Flaw: It Can’t Fire Laser Weapons
19fortyfive.com: Eurofighter Typhoon: The Fighter Jet Russia Fears Most?
19fortyfive.com: Restraint Doesn’t Mean Abandoning Ukraine to Russia
19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Crisis Update: Can Emmanuel Macron Strike a Deal with Russia?
Forbes: Opinion: Ukraine Tensions Should Be A Reminder Of Germany’s Nuclear Role In NATO, Which Will Soon Depend On 30 Super Hornet Fighters
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 9
9 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy, Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “Perspectives on Defense Department Strategic Nuclear Deterrence: Modernize and Sustain the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent, with Drew Walter, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear matters https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
10 a.m. SVC-217 — Senate Foreign Relations Committee CLOSED hearing: “Iran: Update on Vienna Discussions,” with testimony from Robert Malley, State Department special envoy for Iran. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/iran-update-on-vienna-discussions
10 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on “‘Targeted Killing’ and the Rule of Law: The Legal and Human Costs of 20 Years of U.S. Drone Strikes,” with testimony from Hina Shamsi, director, of the American Civil Liberties Union’s National Security Project, New York, N.Y.; Radhya Al-Mutawakel, chairperson of Mwatana for Human Rights, Sana’a, Yemen; Stephen Pomper, chief of policy for the International Crisis Group, Washington, D.C.; retired Gen. John Jumper, former Air Force Chief of Staff, Spotsylvania, Va.; and Nathan Sales, former ambassador-at-large and coordinator for counterterrorism in the State Department http://judiciary.senate.gov
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics Vice Adm. Ricky Williamson https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Saudi Arabia and Iraq: An evolving relationship,” with Kenneth Pollack, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; Katherine Harvey, adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies; Bruce Riedel, director of the Brookings Intelligence Project; and Ranj Alaaldin, nonresident fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/saudi-arabia-and-iraq
10:30 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Policy Implications for Success or Failure,” with former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran Norman Roule, senior adviser at United Against a Nuclear Iran; Mohammed Alsulami, founder and president of Rasanah, the International Institute for Iranian Studies; David Des Roches, associate professor at National Defense University; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR https://www.youtube.com/watch
11 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Parliamentary Perspectives: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis,” with Tobias Ellwood, chair of the U.K. House of Commons Defense Select Committee; Eerik-Niiles Kross, member of the Estonian Foreign Affairs Committee; Miriam Lexmann, member of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs; and former Lithuanian Ambassador to the United States Zygimantas Pavilionis, member of the Lithuanian Seimas https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/parliamentary-perspectives/
11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion on the Army’s “campaign to gain a strategic advantage in the cloud and use data in ways that provide warfighters a decisive advantage,” with Dovarius Peoples, Army Corp of Engineers CIO/G6; Angelica “Angel” Phaneuf, chief information security officer at the Army Software Factory; Paul Puckett, director of the Army Enterprise Cloud Management Office; Rob Schadey, business mission area director at the Army Program Executive Office Enterprise Information Systems; and Army Col. Melissa Solsbury, chief data officer at Project Ridgeway and 18th Airborne Corps https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/AFCEADCArmyLuncheon
12 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual event: “Rethinking Human Capital: Before and After Service,” with Bishop Garrison, senior adviser to the secretary of defense for human capital and diversity https://www.cnas.org/events/cnas-special-event
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Germany’s Worldview and the Crisis in Ukraine,” with Ulrich Speck, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund; Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Liana Fix, program director for international affairs at Korber-Stiftung; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2065-virtual-event
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 10
4:45 a.m. Brussels — Joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
8 a.m. 2520 Wasser Terrace, Herndon, Va. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Space Force IT Day, with the theme “Advancing Space Force Priorities: Delivering New Capabilities and Accelerating Innovation,” with Space Force Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson; Defense CIO John Sherman; Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer at the Space Force; Col. Steve Landry, innovation and digital transformation director at the Space Force; and Michael Torres, enterprise IT chief at the U.S. Space Force https://afceanova.swoogo.com/SpaceForce
9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with Office of Naval Research Chief Rear Adm. Lorin Selby https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration virtual conference: “U.S.-Korea Defense Cooperation in the Biden Administration,” with South Korean Minister Kang Eun Ho, head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration; retired Gen. Robert Brown, former commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, and current president and CEO of the Association of the U.S. Army; Seth Jones, director, CSIS International Security Program; and Victor Cha, senior vice president and Korea Chair, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/csis-dapa-conference
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “How the U.S. Army Will Overcome Its Challenges: What Policy and Defense Professionals Need to Know,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.heritage.org/defense/event
11 a.m. — Foreign Press Association Zoom briefing on Russia, Ukraine and China, with former national security adviser John Bolton; and Ian Williams, president, FPA. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Conflict and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” with Carla Freeman, senior China expert at USIP; Daniel Markey, senior adviser for South Asia at USIP; Andrew Scobell, fellow on China at USIP; and Vikram Singh, senior adviser at the USIP Asia Center https://www.usip.org/events/conflict-and-cooperation-indo-pacific
1 p.m. — Defense One, Nextgov and Route Fifty virtual discussion: “Cyber Defenders: Securing 2022, with Chris Painter, associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Program; and Nick Marinos, managing director for information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office https://events.nextgov.com/cyberdefenders2022/
2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Russia’s Aggression Toward Ukraine: The German View,” with German Minister of State Tobias Lindner https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russias-aggression-towards-ukraine
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: The View from Kyiv,” with former Ukrainian Parliament member Svitlana Zalishchuk, adviser to the CEO at Naftogaz; Hanna Hopko, Russian warfare expert and former chair of the Ukrainian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee; Nolan Peterson, senior editor at Coffee or Die Magazine and former special operations pilot at the Air Force; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2067-virtual-event-russian-aggression
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today,” with author Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies https://www.csis.org/events/what-can-cold-war-teach-us-about-us-china-rivalry
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 11
9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program virtual discussion: “How to Avert an Economic Collapse in Afghanistan,” with former Afghan Finance Minister Khalid Payenda; former Afghan Central Bank Governor Khalil Sediq; Khisrow Fazli, CEO of Ghazanfar Bank; and Julia Friedlander, former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hindsight-front
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with former Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung-han, professor at Korea University https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-41-kim-sung-han
12:30 p.m. — New York University’s Brademas Center virtual discussion: “What’s at Stake in Ukraine?” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, research associate at the Free University of Berlin’s Institute of East European Studies; Sophie Lambroschini, associate researcher at the Marc Bloch Center, Berlin; Adam Tooze, professor at Columbia University; Masha Gessen, staff writer at the New Yorker; Zvi Ben-Dor Benite, professor of history at New York University; and Stefanos Geroulanos, professor of European intellectual history at New York University https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 14
12 p.m. — Project 2049 Institute event: “Taiwan’s Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios,” with Amb. Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative to the U.S.; Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Rep. Elaine Luria D-Va.; and others https://project2049.net/event/taiwans-global-gravity
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
7 a.m. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” with Chief Warrant Officer 5 Rick Knowlton, the senior warrant officer adviser for the Army Talent Management Task Force; CW5 Patrick Nelligan, command chief warrant officer of the Army Reserve Command; and CW5 Teresa Domeier, command chief warrant officer of the Army National Guard https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/-Noon-Report-Talent-Management
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“As the United States rightfully prioritizes competition with China, we must remain engaged in the Middle East and Central and South Asia. We must be clear-eyed about the fact that the United States Central Command area of responsibility remains home to America’s national interests.”
Army Lt. Gen. Michael “Erik” Kurilla, nominee to head the U.S. Central Command, at his confirmation hearing Tuesday.
