As US and Iran nuclear talks come down to the wire, Tehran touts new missile capable of reaching Israel

“Iran continues to advance its ballistic missile, diversifying what is already the largest ballistic missile inventory in the Middle East,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “The Kheibar Shekan appears to be an upgrade of the Fateh class of solid-propellant systems, both in reported range and accuracy. Iran’s continued investment in solid-propellant systems is proof that the bar for the use of these weapons is dropping.”

WHAT MESSAGE IS IRAN SENDING? “Are they messaging? Frankly, we see their malign activities as much more than messaging,” said spokesman John Kirby at the Pentagon. “I mean, they are malign activities on their own. They are destabilizing in the region. They’re supporting terrorist groups across the region. They are harassing maritime shipping.”

“They are advancing a ballistic missile program that is designed for offensive purposes to inflict harm and damage, potentially lethal, on other states, other peoples, and our allies and partners.”

‘SOBERING’ CLOSED-DOOR SESSION: The unveiling of Iran’s newest missile came as members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee were receiving a closed-door briefing about how close Iran is getting to having the capability to build a nuclear weapon.

The classified session was described as “sobering” by Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine and “shocking” by Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy. The Biden administration continues to describe Iran’s breakout time as “weeks.”

“A deal that addresses the core concerns of all sides is in sight,” said White House press secretary Jen Psaki yesterday, “but if it is not reached in the coming weeks, Iran’s ongoing nuclear advances will make it impossible for us to return to the JCPOA.”

‘FIVE MINUTES AWAY’: IS IRAN CLOSER TO NUCLEAR DEAL OR NUCLEAR BOMB?

33 SENATORS VOW TO BLOCK ANY DEAL: A group of Republican senators has written President Joe Biden warning him they plan to block any deal with Iran if it is not submitted to Congress for approval under the provisions of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015.

“We write to call attention to a range of obligations that your administration is statutorily mandated to fulfill in relation to Congressional oversight over any such agreement, and to ensure that your officials know we are committed to providing availability, assistance, and resources so you can fully meet these mandates,” the GOP senators wrote.

“We also write to emphasize that we are committed to using the full range of options and leverage available to United States Senators to ensure that you meet those obligations, and that the implementation of any agreement will be severely if not terminally hampered if you do not.”

MILITARY OPTIONS: If talks fail, the obvious next step is one no one seems to want to talk about — a military strike by the U.S. or Israel to take out Iran’s deeply buried nuclear facilities.

Psaki said in December that Biden asked his national security team “to prepare a range of contingencies,” saying, “We are at a pivotal point because of the progress that they have made in recent years.”

At the White House yesterday, national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with his Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata. “They underscored their shared determination to address security challenges impacting the Middle East, including the threats posed by Iran and its proxies,” the White House said in a statement. “Mr. Sullivan reiterated President Biden’s unwavering support to Israel’s security and to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”

At his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday, the Army general nominated to be the next U.S. Central Commander was asked by Maine Sen. Angus King if the U.S. had “realistic options” for eliminating Iran’s nuclear capability.

“Senator, my current job, I’m not aware of the current military options,” said Lt. Gen. Michael Kurilla, commander of the 18th Airborne Corps. “My only concern would be that you can never take away the intellectual knowledge that they have on how to increase their nuclear capability. And then the reaction that Iran would have of any strike on them.”

AS WINDOW CLOSES ON REVIVING IRAN DEAL, DOOR OPENS ON MILITARY OPTIONS

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HAPPENING TODAY: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg this morning at NATO headquarters.

“This is a dangerous moment for European security,” said Stoltenberg. “The number of Russian forces is going up — the warning time for a possible attack is going down. NATO is not a threat to Russia, but we must be prepared for the worst while remaining strongly committed to finding a political solution.”

The latest estimates are that Russia has 140,000 troops surrounding Ukraine, with more capability and support elements arriving every day.

“This is probably the most dangerous moment … the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades, and we’ve got to get it right,” said Johnson.

US TROOPS READY TO ASSIST AMERICANS LEAVING UKRAINE BY LAND: The Pentagon confirmed yesterday that — if needed — some of the additional U.S. troops being deployed to Poland and Romania could be pressed into service to assist American citizens who cross the border to the NATO countries.

“When the secretary decided to send leading elements of the 82nd Airborne … we said from the very get-go that one of the reasons why we chose that unit is they’re multi-mission,” said John Kirby at yesterday’s briefing. “That’s their job, that’s what they do.”

“They’re going to be ready to do a number of contingencies,” Kirby said. “So, I can’t rule out the fact that these soldiers could be used in some degree with evacuation assistance on the other side of that border. And certainly, they’re going to be prepared to do that.”

Kirby said there is still plenty of time and plenty of ways for Americans to leave the country.

“If Americans are listening carefully and following the guidance by the State Department and by the president of the United States, they should be leaving now,” he said. “They should have been leaving before now. And there’s plenty of ways to do that, just by going into Kyiv and jumping on an airplane or getting in a car and driving across the country. I mean, it’s not a military conflict zone right now.”

US TROOPS PREPARING TO HELP AMERICANS FLEEING UKRAINE SHOULD RUSSIA INVADE

MORE EYES AND EARS: Members of the Senate Intelligence Committee have sent a bipartisan letter to President Joe Biden, urging him to do more to make sure Ukraine has the kind of actionable intelligence the U.S. military would have if it was facing an invasion force from Russia.

“We request that the United States share intelligence with Ukraine to the fullest extent possible. Russia is the aggressor, and we need to arm Ukraine with critical information needed to defend their country,” the senators wrote. “This is in the interest of U.S. national security, as well as that of our allies and partners in the region. Russia’s threats to Ukraine are a threat to democracies around the world, and we urge you to do as much as possible to support Ukraine at this critical moment.”

The letter is signed by Chairman Mark Warner of Virginia, Vice Chairman Marco Rubio of Florida, and 14 other members of the committee.

GALLAGHER JOINS HOUSE INTEL PANEL: Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher has been selected by Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy to serve on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

“As a Marine Corps Counterintelligence/Human Intelligence Officer, I saw first-hand the importance of intelligence in creating decision advantage for the leaders of this country,” said Gallagher in a statement. “After two decades of prioritizing counterterrorism operations, our challenge is now to adapt the intelligence community to face the threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party, whose core identity is shaped by the role that intelligence operations and United Front Work played in its ascendency to power within China.”

BLOOMBERG’S NEW GIG: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has nominated former New York mayor and media mogul Michael Bloomberg to be the next chairman of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Board.

Spokesman John Kirby said Bloomberg would “leverage his experience and strategic insights on innovation, business and public service” to ensure “the department has access to the best and brightest minds in science technology and innovation.”

The volunteer civilian advisory board was led by Google CEO Eric Schmidt in 2020. It is charged with making recommendations on emerging technologies and innovative approaches to development.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: US troops preparing to help Americans fleeing Ukraine should Russia invade

Washington Examiner: Air Force approves first religious exemption requests for COVID-19 vaccine

Washington Examiner: Experts highlight need for drone program accountability in Senate testimony

Washington Examiner: Vladimir Putin inserts ‘crazy’ threat of nuclear war into Ukraine diplomacy

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Where are the French and German air forces?

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Time for Minsk III, or why Ukraine is wary of a Minsk-ing of words

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Why Taiwan faces disaster

Washington Post: Russia Begins Major Military Exercise That West Fears Is Cover For Attacking Ukraine

USNI News: 3 More Russian Navy Amphibs Enter The Black Sea

The Drive: It Looks Like Russia Wants To All But Wall Off Ukraine’s Coastlines Next Week

AP: British envoy in Moscow to try to ease Ukraine crisis

Air Force Magazine: E-8C JSTARS Battle Management Aircraft Spotted Operating from Ramstein

Bloomberg: US Sends Warship, Jets to Gulf to Fend Off Attacks on UAE

19fortyfive.com: Why the US Air Force Is Sending F-22 Raptors to the Middle East

New York Times: A U.S. Jet Is At The Bottom Of The South China Sea. What Now?

Inside Defense: Merz: Navy Focused On Readiness In Next Budget

Air Force Magazine: Six B-21s in Production, Fuel Control Software Already Tested

Reuters: With Blinken In Pacific, Marshall Islands Says Talks On U.S. Military Access ‘Stalled’

Seapower Magazine: Commandant Sees Bigger Role For Marine Raiders In Great Power Competition

National Interest: The Marines Are Getting Ready For Amphibious Operations Again

National Defense Magazine: Navy Minesweepers Look To AI To Boost Speed, Reduce Risk

Military.com: Air Force Making Uniform Changes With Women in Mind, While Space Force Is Working to Fix Those Baggy Pants

Marine Corps Times: The Marines Need More Female Drill Instructors To Make Gender-Integration Work

19fortyfive.com: Why NATO Can’t Match Russia’s 2,000 Tactical Nuclear Weapons

19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Why America Wins If Russia Invades Ukraine or Not

19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Real Goal Might Not Be Ukraine: A Takeover of Belarus?

Calendar

THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 10

4:45 a.m. Brussels — Joint news conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

8 a.m. 2520 Wasser Terrace, Herndon, Va. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Space Force IT Day, with the theme “Advancing Space Force Priorities: Delivering New Capabilities and Accelerating Innovation,” with Space Force Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson; Defense CIO John Sherman; Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer at the Space Force; Col. Steve Landry, innovation and digital transformation director at the Space Force; and Michael Torres, enterprise IT chief at the U.S. Space Force https://afceanova.swoogo.com/SpaceForce

9:15 a.m. — Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and Asia Society virtual conversation: “A new China-Russia ‘alliance’?” with former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, president, Asia Society; Stephen Hadley, former U.S. national security adviser; and Susan Glasser, staff writer, The New Yorker https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-new-china-russia-alliance

9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with Office of Naval Research Chief Rear Adm. Lorin Selby https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc

10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration virtual conference: “U.S.-Korea Defense Cooperation in the Biden Administration,” with South Korean Minister Kang Eun Ho, head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration; retired Gen. Robert Brown, former commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, and current president and CEO of the Association of the U.S. Army; Seth Jones, director, CSIS International Security Program; and Victor Cha, senior vice president and Korea Chair, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/csis-dapa-conference

11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “How the U.S. Army Will Overcome Its Challenges: What Policy and Defense Professionals Need to Know,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.heritage.org/defense/event

11 a.m. — Foreign Press Association Zoom briefing on Russia, Ukraine and China, with former national security adviser John Bolton; and Ian Williams, president, FPA. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Conflict and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” with Carla Freeman, senior China expert at USIP; Daniel Markey, senior adviser for South Asia at USIP; Andrew Scobell, fellow on China at USIP; and Vikram Singh, senior adviser at the USIP Asia Center https://www.usip.org/events/conflict-and-cooperation-indo-pacific

1 p.m. — Defense One, Nextgov and Route Fifty virtual discussion: “Cyber Defenders: Securing 2022, with Chris Painter, associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Program; and Nick Marinos, managing director for information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office https://events.nextgov.com/cyberdefenders2022/

2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Russia’s Aggression Toward Ukraine: The German View,” with German Minister of State Tobias Lindner https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russias-aggression-towards-ukraine

2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: The View from Kyiv,” with former Ukrainian Parliament member Svitlana Zalishchuk, adviser to the CEO at Naftogaz; Hanna Hopko, Russian warfare expert and former chair of the Ukrainian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee; Nolan Peterson, senior editor at Coffee or Die Magazine and former special operations pilot at the Air Force; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2067-virtual-event-russian-aggression

3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today,” with author Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies https://www.csis.org/events/what-can-cold-war-teach-us-about-us-china-rivalry

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 11

9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program virtual discussion: “How to Avert an Economic Collapse in Afghanistan,” with former Afghan Finance Minister Khalid Payenda; former Afghan Central Bank Governor Khalil Sediq; Khisrow Fazli, CEO of Ghazanfar Bank; and Julia Friedlander, former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hindsight-front

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with former Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung-han, professor at Korea University https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-41-kim-sung-han

12:30 p.m. — New York University’s Brademas Center virtual discussion: “What’s at Stake in Ukraine?” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, research associate at the Free University of Berlin’s Institute of East European Studies; Sophie Lambroschini, associate researcher at the Marc Bloch Center, Berlin; Adam Tooze, professor at Columbia University; Masha Gessen, staff writer at the New Yorker; Zvi Ben-Dor Benite, professor of history at New York University; and Stefanos Geroulanos, professor of European intellectual history at New York University https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register

MONDAY | FEBRUARY 14

12 p.m. — Project 2049 Institute event: “Taiwan’s Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios,” with Amb. Bi-khim Hsiao, Taiwan’s representative to the U.S.; Randall Schriver, former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Rep. Elaine Luria D-Va.; and others https://project2049.net/event/taiwans-global-gravity

TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15

7 a.m. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg briefs reporters at NATO headquarters ahead of Wednesday and Thursday meeting of the NATO defense ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army webinar: “Warrant Officer Talent Management,” with Chief Warrant Officer 5 Rick Knowlton, the senior warrant officer adviser for the Army Talent Management Task Force; CW5 Patrick Nelligan, command chief warrant officer of the Army Reserve Command; and CW5 Teresa Domeier, command chief warrant officer of the Army National Guard https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/-Noon-Report-Talent-Management

2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/

WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16

All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news

FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 18

All day — The Munich Security Conference begins and goes through Sunday. Feb. 20 at its traditional venue, the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Vice President Kamala Harris attends, https://securityconference.org/en/news/full/information