PUTIN’S REVENGE ATTACK: In what was the biggest barrage of missiles and drones since the start of the war seven and a half months ago, Russia targeted Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv and cities across Ukraine on Monday, hitting 70 civilian targets, including apartment buildings, parks, playgrounds, schools, and critical infrastructure, and killing at least 19 people and wounding more than 100.
“The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise missiles and 24 drone attacks, 13 of which were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Ukrainian air defense shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and 3 unspecified drones,” said the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
The Russian escalation was in apparent response to the Saturday explosion that destroyed part of the 12-mile-long bridge over the Kerch Strait that Russia built after seizing Crimea in order to link the occupied territory with Russia.
In a meeting with his top security officials, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the strike on the bridge, a key supply line for Russian forces in southern Ukraine, an “act of terrorism,” and he warned Sunday’s massive air assault was just the beginning.
“In the event of more attempts to stage terrorist attacks on our territory, Russia’s response will be harsh and commensurate with the threats posed to the Russian Federation,” Putin said. “Nobody should have any doubts about that.”
RUSSIA ALLIES INDIA AND CHINA CALL FOR DE-ESCALATION IN UKRAINE
A GLARING NEED: Ukraine claimed to have shot down roughly half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles, but the Russian attack, while militarily ineffective, did underscore Ukraine’s desperate need for more robust air defenses to protect its civilian population from Russia’s increasingly desperate and indiscriminate missiles strikes.
Air defenses were one of the subjects discussed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Joe Biden in a phone call between the two leaders. The United States announced three months ago that it would be sending two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, or NASAMS, to Ukraine, but as of late last month, they were still said to be months away from delivery.
Zelensky is expected to press the issue at an emergency virtual meeting of the Group of Seven industrialized nations today. “The occupiers already cannot oppose us on the battlefield. That is why they resort to this terror. Well, we’ll make the battlefield even more excruciating for the enemy,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address. “Ukraine cannot be intimidated. We united even more instead. Ukraine cannot be stopped. We are convinced even more that terrorists must be neutralized.”
UKRAINE SEEKS ADDITIONAL ADVANCED AIR DEFENSES AMID LARGE-SCALE RUSSIAN STRIKES
COULD ATACMS FINISH OFF THE KERCH BRIDGE? Russia claimed it was a truck bomb that dropped a portion of the vehicle portion of its bridge to Crimea and damaged the rail link, but it said limited traffic has been restored. The bridge is located roughly 200 miles from Ukraine’s front lines in the south, where its counteroffensive continues to make progress against undersupplied and demoralized Russian soldiers.
The Ukrainian forces could soon be close enough to target the bridge with long-range ATACM missiles, which are fired from the U.S.-supplied HIMARS launchers and can deliver a 500-pound warhead with GPS-guided precision on a target 190 miles away. The Pentagon has consistently said Ukraine doesn’t need the longer-range version of the HIMARS munition, while Ukraine had argued it could use the ATACMS to hit much farther behind enemy lines.
The Kerch Bridge could be one such target.
’WHAT’S NEXT IN LINE, RUSSKIES?’: UKRAINE TAUNTS RUSSIA OVER DESTROYED CRIMEA BRIDGE
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate is scheduled to convene at 11 a.m. to resume consideration of the National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA. The $857 billion defense policy bill passed the Senate Armed Services Committee last June with a bipartisan majority, but it still needs a final vote by the full Senate.
The bill is named for retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), who took to the Senate last month to plead for its quick passage, noting that he worked closely with Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed (D-RI) to forge consensus on the must-pass legislation.
“Senator Reed and I believe deeply in this bill because it responds to those threats and it takes care of our troops. We finished markup three months ago,” Inhofe said. “Selfishly, I want to get this bill done because it will be my last. I would hate to leave here without finishing the NDAA — without fulfilling our promises to our troops and to the American people.”
SLEEPY SENATE STARTS DEBATE ON ANNUAL DEFENSE BILL
ALSO TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will brief reporters ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels. The press conference will be streamed live on the NATO website at 9 a.m. Washington time, (3 p.m. in Brussels).
The two-day meeting at NATO Headquarters will also include a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, hosted by the U.S. and chaired by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
The group comprises 50 countries that are providing or have promised to provide military aid to Ukraine. But the U.S. remains by far the biggest donor, with military aid totaling more than twice that of all the other countries combined, according to a recent analysis.
RUSSIA’S DWINDLING ARMS INVENTORY: Russia’s latest attacks on Ukrainian cities may have provided a psychological boost for the country’s war hawks, but they “wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets,” according to the Institute for the Study of War.
“Ukrainian and Western intelligence have previously reported that Russia has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles,” the ISW said, “and Putin likely knows … he cannot sustain attacks of this intensity for very long.”
“We know, and Russian commanders on the ground know, that their supplies and munitions are running out,” said Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of Britain’s GCHQ intelligence agency, in remarks prepared for a speech today, according to the BBC.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia, in people and equipment, are staggering,” Fleming said. “Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.”
And Fleming said Putin is increasingly isolated and making mistakes. “With little effective internal challenge, his decision-making has proved flawed. It’s a high-stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgment.”
WHAT IF? The Center for Strategic and International Studies is out with a new report examining possible ways China could coerce Taiwan over the next 10 years.
“The report looks back to look ahead, using the logic of historical cases ranging from the 1948 Berlin Airlift to the 1980s Tanker War in the Arabian Gulf to identify ways and means Beijing could use to compel Taiwan,” according to CSIS. “The resulting range of scenarios point toward an urgent need to develop new escalation management frameworks supporting the new integrated deterrence strategy.”
SABRINA SINGH: The Pentagon announced Friday that Sabrina Singh, former deputy press secretary to Vice President Kamala Harris, will join its public affairs staff as deputy Pentagon press secretary, reporting to Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, and Todd Breasseale, deputy assistant to the secretary of defense for media operations.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Ukraine seeks additional advanced air defenses amid large-scale Russian strikes
Washington Examiner: Biden should avoid ‘Armageddon’ rhetoric on Russia, retired top admiral says
Washington Examiner: ‘Political fiction’: Macron takes aim at Biden’s nuclear Armageddon remarks
Washington Examiner: Russia allies India and China call for de-escalation in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: ‘What’s next in line, Russkies?’: Ukraine taunts Russia over destroyed Crimea bridge
Washington Examiner: Russia begins fresh military leadership shake-up amid failures in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia’s Medvedev urges ‘complete dismantling’ of Ukraine’s political regime
Washington Examiner: US resists ‘regime change’ talk, but Putin knows how last czar died
Washington Examiner: Putin will die if Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine: Zelensky
Washington Examiner: Christmas is canceled: Russian mayors scrap holiday parties to buy war equipment
Washington Examiner: Signs to watch for if US believes a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine is imminent
Washington Examiner: US sanctions North Korean weapons program network
Washington Examiner: Putin confronted by member of inner circle over war’s failures: Report
Washington Examiner: White House imposes additional restrictions on counterterrorism drone strikes
Washington Examiner: Brittney Griner and Paul Whelan could be freed by year’s end, advocate says
AP: Kremlin war hawks demand more devastating strikes on Ukraine
AP: S. Korea says it has ability to intercept North’s missiles
Washington Post: Experts Seek Clues On How Long Xi Could Stay In Power
AP: Taiwan Leader Tells China War ‘Absolutely Not An Option’
Asia Times: China’s Next Aircraft Carrier Likely To Be Nuclear
Defense News: White House Arctic Strategy Calls for Enhanced Military Presence
Military Times: Failed Drone Strike In Syria Targeted U.S. Troops
Defense News: Italy Eyes US-Style Compass Call Electronic Attack Jets
Breaking Defense: F-35 Might Not Ever Reach $80M Target Again, Lockheed Exec Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: AFSOC’s MC-130Hs Grounded by Cracked Parts Along With ACC, AMC Fleets
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Update to KC-46’s Troubled Refueling System Delayed Until 2025
CBS News: After Years Of Delays, The Most Advanced Aircraft Carrier Ever Built Is Underway
Marine Corps Times: The Marine Corps Hit All Its Recruitment Goals For 2022
San Diego Union-Tribune: Marine Recruit Collapses, Dies At Camp Pendleton
19fortyfive.com: Abrams X Tank: The Future of the U.S. Army?
19fortyfive.com: Russia Using Iran’s ‘Kamikaze’ Drones to Target Ukrainian Cities
19fortyfive.com: Putin Unleashed Missile Hell on Ukraine (And More Is Coming)
19fortyfive.com: Is Russia’s War in Ukraine A Lost Cause? Not Exactly
19fortyfive.com: Yes, Putin Could Start a Nuclear War over Ukraine: Expert
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 11
8 a.m. Walter Washington Convention Center — Association of the U.S. Army annual meeting and exposition continues through Oct. 12, with Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo and Army chief of staff Gen. James McConville. Show guide: https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2022
9 a.m. EDT Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg holds a news conference ahead of Wednesday’s NATO Defense Ministerial https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
9 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Dragon in the North: Assessing the Growing Chinese Threat to the Arctic Region,” with former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo, fellow at the Hudson Institute; Roslyn Layton, co-founder of China Tech Threat; Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center; and Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2150-dragon-in-the-north
11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W.— Wilson Center Global Europe Program discussion: “UK-U.S. Military Cooperation,” with U.K. Shadow Defense Secretary John Healey https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/uk-us-military-cooperation
1 p.m. — Arms Control Association virtual discussion: “Putin’s Latest Nuclear Threats: What’s at Stake and What Can Be Done to Walk Back from the Brink?” with former NATO Deputy Secretary-General Rose Gottemoeller, senior lecturer at Stanford University’s Institute of International Studies and former undersecretary of state for arms control and international security; Hans Kristensen, director of the Federation of American Scientists’s Nuclear Information Project; Daryl Kimball, executive director of ACA; and Shannon Bugos, senior policy analyst at ACA https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “U.S.-Taiwan Economic Relations: Building a Foundation for Future Prosperity,” with Taiwanese Minister for Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua https://www.csis.org/events/us-taiwan-economic-relations
4:30 p.m. 717 Sixth St. N.W. — Defense One “Cocktails and Conversation” discussion with senior Army leaders from the AUSA’s 2022 annual meeting on “The Army’s Next Steps” https://www.defenseone.com/feature/cocktails-and-conversations
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12
3 a.m. EDT NATO Headquarters, Brussels — NATO defense ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meet over two days at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. A separate meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, hosted by the U.S., will also take place at 7 a.m. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to conduct a news conference at the end of each day https://www.nato.int/nato
5 a.m. — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg makes “doorstep” remarks as he arrives at NATO Headquarters. Available live on NATO website https://www.nato.int/
8 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Can Ukraine Survive the Winter?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Melinda Haring, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Anders Aslund, former senior fellow at the Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/can-ukraine-survive-the-winter
8:30 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Pl. N.W.— Association of the United States Army wraps up its 2022 annual meeting and exposition with the theme, “Building the Army of 2030.” Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo participates in an “Army Civilian Forum” at 9:30 a.m. https://meetings.ausa.org/annual/2022/2022
10 a.m. — Politico virtual discussion: “U.S., China and Xi Jinping’s New Era,” with Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) https://www.politico.com/live-events/2022
2 p.m. 37th St. and O St. N.W. — Center for a New American Security and Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service discussion with national security adviser Jake Sullivan https://www.cnas.org/events/special-event
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 13
2:25 a.m. NATO Headquarters — U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg make short remarks before their bilateral meeting. Available live on NATO website https://www.nato.int/
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies 2022 Global Development Forum discussion: “Envisioning a Free and Prosperous Ukraine” https://www.csis.org/events/2022-global-development-forum
9 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “Afghanistan Under the Taliban and its Regional Impact,” with Daniel Markey, senior adviser for South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson East Asia Program; Elizabeth Threlkeld, director of the Stimson South Asia Program; and Barnett Rubin, fellow at the Stimson China Program https://www.stimson.org/event/trip-findings-afghanistan
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Exploiting a Hidden Window of Opportunity to Deter a Conflict over Taiwan,” with Michael Brown, visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and former director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit; former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec Advisors; and Daniel Patt, senior fellow at Hudson’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2171-virtual-event
2 p.m. — National Endowment for Democracy virtual discussion: “Sustaining the Momentum: Countering Kleptocracy in Russia and Beyond,” with Shannon Green, executive director of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Anti-Corruption Task Force; Nikita Kulachenkov, independent anti-corruption investigator; and Nate Sibley, research fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Kleptocracy Initiative https://www.ned.org/events/sustaining-the-momentum-countering-kleptocracy
2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — Hudson Institute book discussion on China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao
5:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies virtual discussion: “Finland, NATO, and the Lessons of History,” with Ahonen Pertti, professor at the University of Jyvaskyla https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events
5:30 p.m. 1234 Ninth St. N.W. — Axios discussion: “Guarding Against and Responding to Cyberattacks,” with Deputy National Security Council Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technology Anne Neuberger; former homeland security adviser Thomas Bossert, president of Trinity Cyber; Heather Adkins, vice president of security engineering at Google; and Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator https://respondingtocyberattacks.splashthat.com
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 14
12:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Posturing U.S. Space Operations for a Warfighting Advantage,” with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of the Space Operations Command https://www.csis.org/events/lt-gen-stephen-n-whiting
2 p.m. — Center for Security and International Studies International Security Program and the U.S. Naval Institute Maritime Security Dialogue: “Seventh Fleet update,” with Vice Adm. Karl Thomas; retired Vice Adm. Peter Daly, CEO and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones, director, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/maritime-security-dialogue
2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — United States Institute of Peace film screening and discussion: “My Childhood, My Country: 20 Years in Afghanistan,” with co-writer and co-director Phil Grabsky; and Belquis Ahmadi, USIP senior program officer https://www.usip.org/events/screening-bafta-winner-my-childhood-my-country
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia, in people and equipment, are staggering. We know, and Russian commanders on the ground know, that their supplies and munitions are running out.”
Britain’s spy chief Sir Jeremy Fleming, in remarks prepared for a lecture at the Royal United Services Institute
