U.S. airstrikes against camps used by Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria aren’t substantial enough to fortify an eroding U.S. position as a key Iraqi leader appears to be hedging his bets about U.S. support, say analysts familiar with the internal power dynamics of the country.
“They can rebuild that within days,” New Lines Institute senior analyst Rasha Al Aqeedi said. “It’s not a huge deal.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi’s ability to target those same militias is more difficult to establish. Kadhimi has made multiple efforts to arrest leaders of militias loyal to Iran, only to be forced, sometimes almost at gunpoint, to release the militants. And neither the recent airstrikes nor President Joe Biden’s efforts to rehabilitate the 2015 Iran nuclear deal are tilting that balance of power in Kadhimi’s favor.
“The United States must continue to work with Iraqi Prime Minister Khadimi through the framework of the U.S.-Iraqi strategic dialogue in support of a stable, inclusive, and independent Iraq,” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, said Monday. “Moreover, I continue to urge the administration to implement a comprehensive strategy towards Iran that addresses all its dangerous behavior, including ongoing attacks against the United States in Iraq and actions that undermine the Iraqi government.”
Instead, U.S. and Iraqi officials affirmed their intention to see “the redeployment of any remaining combat forces from Iraq” just days before Biden announced a more specific plan to pull troops out of Afghanistan. The Iranian proxies portrayed that April 7 announcement as a victory for the Iran-aligned lawmakers who passed a nonbinding resolution calling for the expulsion of U.S. forces after the killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January 2020.
“Of course, the United States was not going to stay forever,” Aqeedi said. “But the way the militias marketed it was … that the U.S. decision came as a result of that [vote].”
Kadhimi’s behavior in recent weeks is stoking misgivings that even the prime minister is feeling the pressure from Tehran. “Kadhimi is pivoting hard towards the Iranians at this point, which is a sign that American prestige is seen as weak,” the American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin said.
That dynamic has been on display in recent weeks, as evidenced in Kadhimi’s shifting posture toward the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Iran-aligned militia groups that helped stymy the Islamic State’s rampage across Iraq but now often function as an Iran-backed paramilitary within the Iraqi state.
Kadhimi, following multiple unsuccessful efforts to curtail the militias, felt the need to attend a Saturday parade in which the groups displayed their Iranian-supplied weaponry, although he made a point to emphasize that the militias are to fight “under the banner of Iraq” in a rhetorical nod to his true priorities.
“He’s hedging his bets,” the Heritage Foundation’s James Phillips said. “He’s taking out insurance with the Iranians in the hope that he can stay in power and maybe gradually gain independence from Iran. But I think he sees that Iranian influence is on upswing.”
Kadhimi’s adherence to “the banner of Iraq” has put him at odds with powerful leaders within those militias. “Some people want power only to get certain gains,” he said through a translator in a May 14 interview with Al Jazeera. “We are trying to prevent these people from taking over and controlling the joints of power in Iraq.”
Iraqi forces moved against the Iranian proxies less than two weeks after that interview, when the top militia commander in the Anbar province, Qasim Muslih, was arrested pursuant to a warrant that Iraq’s anti-terrorism law.
Muslih’s allies responded by laying “siege,” as one Turkish media outlet put it, to the fortified diplomatic district in Baghdad known as the Green Zone, a repeat of the scene that unfolded in the summer of 2020, when Kadhimi previously attempted to arrest Iran-aligned militia chiefs threatening U.S. forces.
Muslih was released in early June. The attacks against U.S. positions continued, prompting the retaliatory strike on Sunday night only to draw a rebuke from Kadhimi’s government in the form of a defense ministry statement that described the strike as a “blatant and unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty.”
That’s a startling break with his past rhetoric, according to Rubin. “Khadimi, in the past, stood up to these militias. … now, he’s basically amplifying their narrative,” Rubin said. “Even America’s ally is doing this. It’s a sign of just how weak the perception of America is.”
