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THE PLAN: It’s been only three weeks since President Trump’s historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, but the Trump administration is being pressed for evidence that the document signed by the two leaders in Singapore will actually result in “denuclearization.” The questions intensified last week by reports from NBC News and the Washington Post quoting U.S. intelligence officials who say new evidence casts doubt on Kim’s sincerity. They have reportedly concluded that North Korea “is considering ways to conceal the number of weapons it has and secret production facilities.” “We have developed a program,” national security adviser John Bolton said on CBS yesterday. “Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will be discussing with the North Koreans in the near future about really how to dismantle all of their WMD and ballistic missile programs in a year. If they have the strategic decision already made to do that, and they’re cooperative, we can move very quickly.” Bolton said U.S. experts have devised a detailed plan that would require full disclosure of all chemical, biological and nuclear programs, and their ballistic missile sites. If the North cooperates, Bolton insisted, “We would be able to dismantle the overwhelming bulk of their programs within a year.” THE INTEL: Bolton pointedly refused to confirm or deny the reports that North Korea is preparing to hide some of its bombs and uranium enrichment facilities. “There’s a good reason why leaking intelligence is a criminal offense in this country. It harms the United States when it happens. It gives away a lot of information to our adversaries,” Bolton said on Fox. “We are using the full range of our capabilities to understand what North Korea is doing.” ACTIONS NOT WORDS: “We’re very well aware of North Korea’s pattern of behavior over decades of negotiating with the United States,” Bolton said. “There’s not any starry-eyed feeling among the group doing this. … But Kim Jong Un was very emphatic several times in Singapore he was different from prior regimes. Now we will let their actions speak for themselves.” HUMANIZING BOLTON: On Fox, Bolton related an anecdote from the Singapore summit that he said illustrates the change of tone from North Korea, whose state media in the past had called Bolton “human scum.” “At one point in our lunch, Kim Jong Un said to me, ‘you know, the two of us have to get a picture together, I want to take it home and show my hardliners you’re not such a bad guy.’” Bolton told host Chris Wallace, who asked, “How did you feel about him saying that?” “Wonderful,” Bolton replied. BIGGER SUB FLEET FACES UNCERTAINTY: The two House lawmakers behind a failed effort last week to boost the Navy’s purchases of Virginia-class attack submarines are vowing to fight on, but the budget outlook for the spending is not good. “Going forward, I will continue to advocate for this funding as I don’t want to look back and think we could have done something and we didn’t,” Rep. Rob Wittman, the chairman of the House Armed Services seapower subcommittee, told the Washington Examiner. Wittman warned that the Navy fleet will shrink from 53 to 41 over the next decade while China’s fleet grows to 70. But the House defeated the 2019 defense appropriations amendment by Wittman and Rep. Joe Courtney, the subcommittee ranking member, that would have reshuffled $1 billion to up the Navy’s sub buy from two to three in 2022. The boats are made by General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries. Courtney said the House’s version of the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act still includes language that could allow the Navy to negotiate more subs, just without the needed funding. “In the NDAA we are going to try to keep legal authority out there as a signal that we’re still interested in taking advantage of a larger block buy, but we’ll see how it unfolds. Obviously, my amendment would have really enhanced that opportunity,” he said. The provision just has to survive the House-Senate conference to negotiate a final NDAA bill. Meanwhile, the Navy may wrap up negotiations on a submarine block buy this year, so the window for adding to that order is closing. Courtney said Congress could still decide to fund a higher number of the subs next year, but it will likely cost more. BUDGET CAPS LOOMING: In the end, concerns over the price tag tanked the submarine amendment. “I know we are behind in submarines. We need to do that. I completely agree with that but not this way and not now,” Rep. Kay Granger, who chairs the House Appropriations defense subcommittee, told the Washington Examiner. Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan sent a letter to lawmakers that said the amendment would force the military to cut $6 billion from other ship programs to pay for it. But Congress and the Pentagon could be stuck with much less funding next year for subs and ships if lawmakers cannot make an overarching budget deal. Spending caps imposed by the Budget Control Act are set to kick back in for the next two years. Rep. Pete Visclosky, the ranking member on Granger’s subcommittee, warned that the coming caps could cause “great disruption” for the military by slashing $71 billion from the $675 billion funding in the House’s 2019 defense appropriations bill passed on Thursday. “I know senior leaders in the Pentagon are not taking chances and have begun to identify programs to cut in 2020 that will carry the least associated risk for the warfighter if these caps are not adjusted,” Visclosky said. Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY — WEST POINT WELCOMES NEW SUPER: Lt. Gen. Darryl Williams officially takes charge of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point as the 60th superintendent during an assumption of command ceremony at 9 a.m. Williams is a 1983 graduate of West Point, and holds masters’ degrees in Leadership Development, Military Art and Science, and National Security and Strategic Studies. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley is scheduled to speak at today’s ceremony. TROOPS OUT OF SYRIA? Trump brought up the idea of pulling U.S. troops out of Syria during a private meeting with Jordan’s King Abdullah last week, according to two diplomatic sources familiar with the meeting. The two discussed the idea of Trump making a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin that would allow the U.S. to “get out ASAP,” the sources told CNN. In an interview last month with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Trump did suggest he might just ask Putin straight out to withdraw his support for Bashar Assad. “I could say, would you do me a favor? Would you get out of Syria? Would you do me a favor? Would you get out of Ukraine?” Trump said in the interview following the Singapore summit. IT’S ABOUT IRAN, NOT ASSAD: On CBS, Bolton said in Trump’s July 16 meeting with Putin in Helsinki, the president will definitely be bringing up Syria. “There are possibilities for doing a larger negotiation on helping to get Iranian forces out of Syria and back into Iran, which would be a significant step forward,” Bolton said. “I don’t think Assad is the strategic issue. I think Iran is the strategic issue.” UKRAINE NOT IN PLAY: Bolton also dismissed reports that Trump might be willing to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea as a fait accompli. “That’s not the position of the United States,” Bolton insisted on CBS. Trump, speaking to reporters on Air Force last week, seemed to leave the door open when asked about it. “We will have to see what happens,” Trump said. “I think the president often says ‘We will see’ to show that he’s willing to talk to foreign leaders about a range of issues and hear their perspective.” Bolton said in his meeting with Putin last week in Moscow that he was unambiguous. “My response was, we’re going to have to agree to disagree on Ukraine.” CORRECTION: This story was updated to reflect that Crimea was annexed, not Ukraine. NATO AS BAD AS NAFTA? Did Trump actually tell the leaders of the G-7 that NATO was as bad as NAFTA? “I was there in Canada. I didn’t hear that remark. I’m not aware that he said it,” Bolton said on Fox. “I think there are a lot of stories that grow with the telling.” Asked if Trump is tougher on U.S. allies than its adversaries, Bolton said, “I don’t think anybody ought to have a case of the vapors over the discussions we have in NATO or the G-7 versus discussions with Putin and Kim Jong Un. They are very, very different, the president treats them differently. He understands what the strategic interests are and that’s what he’s trying to pursue.” TROOPS OUT OF GERMANY? In one of those stories where the headline is more alarming than the story itself, the Washington Post reports that the Pentagon is “analyzing the cost and impact of a large-scale withdrawal or transfer of American troops stationed in Germany,” after Trump is said to have expressed of interest in withdrawing the troops during a meeting early this year. But the National Security Council said in a statement to the Post that there have been no requests for planning to pull troops out of Germany. The Pentagon routinely evaluates U.S. troop deployments, the statement said, and that “analysis exercises” are “not out of the norm.” The Post also quoted U.S. officials who emphasized that the exercise is limited to an internal review of options. “The top military brass are not involved as yet, and the Pentagon has not been tasked with figuring out how to execute any option,” the newspaper said. WISHFUL THINKING: The high hopes for a breakthrough with the Taliban are crumbling in the face of the harsh reality of the intractable conflict in Afghanistan, now in its 17th year. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was forced to declare an end to his 10-day extension of a unilateral cease-fire after it became clear the Taliban had no intention of accepting Ghani’s olive branch, and continue to launch attacks against Afghan forces. “The cease-fire is over,” Ghani said Saturday as he ordered the resumption of offensive operations against the Taliban. A suicide bombing in eastern Afghanistan Sunday killed at least 19 people, mostly Sikhs and Hindus who were part of a delegation traveling to Jalalabad on Sunday for a meeting with Ghani. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for that attack. ISIS IN AFGHANISTAN: The Islamic State’s Afghanistan affiliate has gained strength over the last few years despite the aggressive efforts of the U.S.-led coalition in the country, a State Department official told the Washington Examiner. “ISIS has grown stronger over the last couple of years, despite a really withering military campaign, principally from U.S. forces, but with strong support as well from Afghan forces,” the official said on condition of anonymity. Senior lawmakers hesitated to state it so bluntly, but they acknowledge that ISIS in Afghanistan is a particularly tough nut to crack. SLOW MOTION MARCH: The Pentagon says planning is slowly getting underway for a military parade in the nation’s capital, ordered by Trump after he was inspired by a 2017 Bastille Day celebration in Paris, where Trump was the guest of French President Emmanuel Macron. But the Veteran’s Day event has yet to be assigned a budget, according to a report by NBC News. Pentagon officials told NBC the slow pace of planning is due to a palpable lack of enthusiasm for the project, not just at the Pentagon but also in the White House. “There is only one person who wants this parade,” a senior U.S. official was quoted as saying. THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: John Bolton: Trump will tell Vladimir Putin not to meddle in the 2018 midterm elections Washington Examiner: Despite mirth, memes, and mockery, Trump’s ‘Space Force’ is no farce CNN: Officials meet to discuss implementing US-North Korea agreement Air Force Times: Air Force T-6 squadron pauses training after more physiological scares Defense One: You Should Be ‘Significantly Concerned’ There’s No White House Cyber Coordinator, Policy Experts Say AFP: People rushed to hospital after deadly Afghan suicide attack Fox News: D-Day concert on Sword Beach in France for 75th anniversary draws outrage from some veterans New York Times: The Case of the Purloined Poultry: How ISIS Prosecuted Petty Crime Breaking Defense: The Next Pacific War: Lessons From Wake Island For The PLA Task and Purpose: Some Scumbag Robbed America’s Oldest Living Veteran Of His Savings And Identity Foreign Policy: Pentagon’s AI Surge On Track, Despite Google Protest |
CalendarMONDAY | JULY 2 10 a.m. Arlington National Cemetery. Army Maj. Gen. Michael Howard and Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte take part in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.
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