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AFGHANISTAN’S SHRINKING MILITARY: On the same day the Islamic State claimed responsibility for a deadly attack in the heart of Kabul that killed 31 people, including nine journalists, the Pentagon’s independent Afghanistan watchdog reported a sharp decline in both the authorized and actual troop strength of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. The latest quarterly report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) notes that while the Afghan army and police are authorized at 340,000, but actually have 296,000 personnel, meaning the army is operating at 85 percent, and police at 93 percent of their authorized strength. “These figures represent a sharp decline in strength from the same period last year: a total of 35,999 fewer personnel in January 2018 compared to January 2017,” the report notes. MATTIS DOWNPLAYS LATEST ATTACK: Under questioning by reporters at the Pentagon yesterday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis rejected the idea that the shrinking level of security in the Afghan capital shows that ISIS or the Taliban have the upper hand. “This is the normal stuff by people who cannot win at the ballot box, so they turn to bombs. I mean, this should be completely expected. It’s what they do,” Mattis said in an informal gathering with reporters in the Pentagon press area. Asked about the increasing number of attacks by ISIS-K, which claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack, Mattis insisted both the Taliban and the ISIS affiliate were on the defensive. “We’ve had very good effect on them here for several months now, in a number of locations. And so I can’t give you a quantifiable answer, other than to say they’ve taken a pasting here, for a while.” WHY SO MANY REPORTERS WERE KILLED: As we mentioned yesterday, the pair of suicide bombers who carried out the attack used a common terrorist tactic of detonating one bomb, followed by a second designed to kill the first responders. In this case, journalists were directly targeted, according to yesterday’s SIGAR report. “A bomber disguised as a TV cameraman detonated a bomb at the scene of an earlier explosion near the U.S. Embassy and NATO’s Resolute Support headquarters,” writes John Sopko, the special inspector general. “These cowardly attacks are part of a pattern of violence against Afghan journalists, who display great courage every day as they practice a craft essential to democracy.” According to Reporters Without Borders, “It was the deadliest attack on the media since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.” AFGHANISTAN BY THE NUMBERS: The SIGAR report includes the latest U.S. and NATO troop numbers. According to the audit, the U.S. has about 15,500 troops in Afghanistan with about half, 7,800, assigned the NATO-led Operation Resolute Support, an increase of 400 since the last report. The Resolute Support mission includes roughly 7,500 troops from NATO allies and non-NATO partner nations, bringing the total to roughly 15,300. CASUALTIES: In 2017, 11 U.S. military personnel were killed and 102 were wounded in Afghanistan, according to SIGAR. This is a slight increase from the number killed in the two previous years (10 in 2015, and nine in 2016), but a more significant increase in the number of wounded (75 in 2015 and 70 in 2016). So far this year two American service members have been killed and 19 wounded. This includes yesterday’s announcement that a U.S. service member had been killed in eastern Afghanistan. Since the beginning of Operation Freedom’s Sentinel in 2015, 32 U.S. troops have been killed in action and 268 wounded, and since October of 2001, 2,270 DoD personnel have been killed (including service members and civilians) and 20,318 have been wounded in Afghanistan. THE CASE FOR STAYING IN SYRIA: One of the reasons Mattis eschews high-profile news conferences in the Pentagon Briefing Room is to minimize the time he appears on camera in apparent conflict with his boss. When I asked him at yesterday’s drop-by media engagement to clarify his Senate testimony last week suggesting the U.S. might regret leaving the Syria stability operations to other countries, he danced gently around the subject while underscoring that premature withdrawal would be a mistake. “What we don’t want to do, now that we are on the cusp of winning on the battlefield, in terms of taking down the physical caliphate, the geographic caliphate, we do not want to simply pull out before the diplomats have won the peace,” Mattis said. “So you win the fight and then you win the peace.” Mattis said he would be meeting later in the afternoon with Staffan de Mistura, the U.N.’s special envoy for Syria, to “see where the Geneva process is and what we can do to assist.” THE CASE FOR QUITTING SYRIA: President Trump’s gut tells him it’s time to get out of Syria. Just about everyone else — allies, enemies, Democrats and Republicans in Congress, his own national security advisers and prominent think-tankers — all say a quick withdrawal after the nominal defeat of the Islamic State would be a serious mistake. Read why some people don’t think Trump’s plan is so crazy after all, in this week’s Washington Examiner magazine. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is back in Washington from his first overseas trip, and reports to his Foggy Bottom office for the first time today. He is scheduled to address State Department employees, and is expected give them a pep talk along the lines of what he told U.S. diplomats in Brussels on the first stop of his trip. “They may have been demoralized, but they seemed in good spirits,” Pompeo said at a press conference at NATO headquarters. “They are hopeful that the State Department will get its swagger back, that we will be out doing the things that they came onboard at the State Department to do. To be professional, to deliver diplomacy, American diplomacy around the world – that’s my mission set, is to build that esprit and get the team on the field so that we can effectuate American diplomacy. I know that the State Department and the people there can do that.” ALSO TODAY — ESPER TALKS PRIORITIES: The Atlantic Council will host Army Secretary Mark Esper at 10 a.m. to talk about how the service’s policy could affect industrial markets. Esper is set to discuss his priorities for the Army, such as how it will rebuild readiness under Congress’ two-year budget deal, the new Army Futures Command, and reforms. NOT READY FOR A HIGH-END FIGHT: The Pentagon may be shifting its focus to potential conflicts with great powers such as Russia and China, but a new paper by the American Enterprise Institute argues military aviation will be ill-prepared. “Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine Corps aviation units do not have the people, training or equipment they need to prepare for a high-end conflict, as the new National Defense Strategy directs,” AEI senior research contributor James Cunningham writes. What’s more, the years of slim budgets, constant deployments, and troop shortfalls are likely to stymie the military for years to come. “The costs of ongoing readiness shortfalls are not temporary nor will they go away anytime soon if the services manage to restore training rates or fill aircraft inventories,” Cunningham writes. BIG F-35 CONTRACT: Lockheed Martin was awarded a $1.4 billion contract for sustainment work on the F-35, the company announced yesterday. “This contract is critical to ensuring the transformational F-35s are mission ready to support our men and women in uniform,” said Bridget Lauderdale, vice president of F-35 global sustainment. “We are taking aggressive actions to improve F-35 aircraft availability and reduce sustainment costs. As the sustainment system matures and the size of the operational fleet grows, we are confident we will deliver more capability at less cost than legacy aircraft.” BIBI’S ACCUSATIONS: Israeli intelligence operatives obtained “Iran’s secret nuclear files,” according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said the documents prove that Iran lied to international monitors about the scope of its nuclear weapons program before and after the signing of the 2015 nuclear agreement. “Iran lied, big time,” Netanyahu said in a Monday night address to Israelis, carried live midday on American cable networks. “This atomic archive clearly shows that Iran planned, at the highest levels, to continue work related to nuclear weapons under different guises and using the same personnel.” CRITICS SAY IT’S OLD NEWS: Netanyahu revealed “nothing new” in his dramatic briefing on “Iran’s secret nuclear files,” according to foreign policy advisers from former President Barack Obama’s administration. “For those who have followed the Iranian nuclear file, there is nothing new in [Netanyahu’s] presentation,” Robert Malley, a former National Security Council senior director who helped negotiate the Iran deal, tweeted Monday. “All it does is vindicate need for the nuclear deal.” IRAN AND OTHERS WILL PAY: Trump will impose “secondary sanctions” on European allies that do business with Iran if he decides to withdraw from the nuclear deal, according to a top Republican senator. “I think that we would implement the secondary sanctions component of our sanctions, which would mean countries and companies in those countries would have to decide are they going to do business with Iran or do business with us,” Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker, said Monday when asked on Bloomberg what would happen if Trump abandoned the deal. ALL QUIET ON THE KOREAN FRONT: South Korea has dismantled huge loudspeakers used to blare anti-Pyongyang broadcasts and K-pop songs across the border into North Korea, the AP reports. The dismantling of dozens of South Korean loudspeakers was the latest sign of the thaw between the two Koreas following their historic summit last Friday. WHY NOT THE DMZ? Trump seemed captivated by the symbolism of last Friday’s meeting between South Korea’s Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. And just as planners for his summit were settling on a location in a third country, Trump decided the DMZ looked like just the right place for his upcoming summit with Kim. “There’s something that I like about it, because you’re there — you’re actually there. Where if things work out, there’s a great celebration to be had on the site, not in a third-party country,” Trump said yesterday. “We’re looking at various countries including Singapore. And we are also talking about the possibility of the DMZ — Peace House, Freedom House. There’s something that I thought was intriguing,” Trump said during a press conference at the White House with Nigeria’s president. “I think that some people maybe don’t like the look of that, and some people like it very much,” he said. “I threw it out today as an idea. I also told President Moon, and through President Moon we connected with North Korea.” MOON’S NOBEL PICK: And yesterday Moon joined the Trump-for-Nobel parade, suggesting the U.S. president deserves the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for his effort to help improve relations between South and North Korea, according to reports. U.S. TROOPS OUT OF SOUTH KOREA? That NBC News report about John Kelly calling Trump an “idiot” contained this shocking tidbit: “In one heated exchange between the two men before February’s Winter Olympics in South Korea, Kelly strongly — and successfully — dissuaded Trump from ordering the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula, according to two officials.” Kelly, by the way, dismissed the NBC report as “total BS.” COOL JFK CARRIER VIDEO: Like the world’s largest and most lethal Lego set, the new Ford-class aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy is being assembled one hulking block at a time in Newport News, Va. Huntington Ingalls Industries has released a time-lapse video here of the so-called “superlift” of a front deck section that made the carrier 75 percent complete. The $11 billion JFK, designated CVN 79, is the second Ford-class carrier. Next up is the Enterprise, and the House is looking to fund the fourth unnamed CVN 81 this year. McCAIN’S UNCHAINED: Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. John McCain says his brain cancer diagnosis has given him a sense of freedom to speak his mind in what is his final term in the Senate. “This is my last term,” McCain said in an excerpt of a new memoir set for release next month. “If I hadn’t admitted that to myself before this summer, a stage 4 cancer diagnosis acts as ungentle persuasion.” He has harsh words for Trump. “He has declined to distinguish the actions of our government from the crimes of despotic ones,” McCain writes. “The appearance of toughness, or a reality show facsimile of toughness, seems to matter more than any of our values.” REMEMBERING STEVE KOMAROW: On a personal note I was sad to hear of the passing of a long-time colleague Steve Komarow, who suffered a brain tumor and then complications from a fall. I first met Steve when we were covering local D.C. politics during the administration of Mayor Marion Barry in the 1980s. Steve worked for the Associated Press, and I was a young reporter for WTOP radio. “He covered the presidential campaigns in 1988 and 1992 before joining USA Today in 1993 as a defense correspondent. He accompanied the first U.S. ground troops into Bosnia, Kosovo and Haiti. And he was the first reporter to cover a cruise missile launch from inside a B-52 bomber,” wrote his colleague David Hawkings, at CQ Roll Call. Komarow, who was executive editor and senior vice president, “accomplished something very rare in the often cutthroat worlds of Washington bureaus and foreign correspondence,” wrote Hawkings. “Across a varied and accomplished career of four decades, his calmly confident news judgment and patiently clear-eyed managerial style produced nearly universal respect and virtually no lasting enmity. “One of the best Pentagon reporters of his generation, during an historic time,” recalled David Lapan, then a Marine Corps press officer and now a spokesman for the Bipartisan Policy Center. “He was unfailingly curious, dedicated and good-natured.” THE RUNDOWN Reuters: Israel presents Iran nuclear files, putting pressure on U.S. to scrap deal Air Force Times: US service member killed in Afghanistan, 1 wounded Roll Call: John McCain Asked Son-In-Law to ‘Take Care Of’ His Daughter Defense One: Did Your Company Make that Warplane? Don’t Count on the Upgrade Work Anymore Breaking Defense: Allies Must Develop Own Robots, Not Just ‘Copy’ US: Aussie War College Chief Foreign Policy: Optimism About Korea Will Kill Us All Defense News: Trump trips up on attack aircraft sale to Nigeria Navy Times: Article 32 hearings and court-martial for Fitzgerald officers to begin in May Task and Purpose: No Sky Dong Over Ramstein, Air Force Tells T&P About Phallic-Looking Contrails The Hill: US shuts down ground operations command in Iraq |
CalendarTUESDAY | MAY 1 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The GBSD and B-21/LRSO: Nuclear Deterrent Futures Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org 9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Denuclearizing North Korea: Practicalities and Politics. carnegieendowment.org 10 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Army Vision and Modernization Priorities with Secretary Mark Esper. Atlanticcouncil.org 10:30 a.m. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis welcomes Macedonia Defense Minister Radmila Šekerinska to the Pentagon at on the steps of the River Entrance. 12:15 p.m. 740 15th St. NW. Iraq After ISIS: What to Do Now. newamerica.org 12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. Iraqi Elections by The National Discourse. press.org WEDNESDAY | MAY 2 6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Institute of Land Warfare Breakfast Series with Lt. Gen. Timothy Kadavy, Director of the Army National Guard. ausa.org 7:30 a.m. 2300 Dulles Corner Blvd. 2018 Spring IPM Division Meeting. ndia.org 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The NPR Challenges with Dave Trachtenberg, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. mitchellaerospacepower.org 8:30 a.m. 1401 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Fifth Annual Security Forum on the U.S.-Japan Alliance: Deepening Ties While Confronting New Challenges. spfusa.org 4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Naval Institute with Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. usni.org THURSDAY | MAY 3 8 a.m. 300 First Street SE. The Nuclear Deterrent Breakfast Series: The Emerging Strategic Environment. mitchellaerospacepower.org 8 a.m. 1667 K St. NW. Workshop: Comparing Defense Innovation in Advanced and Catch-up Countries. csbaonline.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Japan’s Security Strategy: A Political Update from Nagata-cho. csis.org 4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Cyber Risk Thursday: Building a Defensible Cyberspace. atlanticcouncil.org 6:30 p.m. 1301 Constitution Ave. NW. The Heroes of Military Medicine Awards with Gen. Joseph Votel, Commander of U.S. Central Command. hjfcp3.org FRIDAY | MAY 4 9:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. 2018 Atlantic Council-East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue, Scaling the Summits: The Future of a Denuclearized Korean Peninsula with Sen. Edward Markey. atlanticcouncil.org 2 p.m. Time for Action in the Western Balkans: Policy Prescriptions for American Diplomacy. usip.org MONDAY | MAY 7 8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Spring Summitry on the Korean Peninsula: Peace Breaking Out or Last Gasp Diplomacy? csis.org 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. An Air Force Operations Analysis Brief Discussion with Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org 1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Four Years of Sanctions: Assessing the Impact on the Russian Economy and Foreign Policy with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org 2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. A Conversation about “The Odyssey of Echo Company: Looking back on Vietnam and the Tet Offensive” with author Doug Stanton. csis.org 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. War by Other Means: Russian Disinformation Undermining Democracy, Spurring Conflict. usip.org 2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians with President of the ICRC Peter Maurer. wilsoncenter.org TUESDAY | MAY 8 8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org 8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Arctic of the Future: Strategic Pursuit or Great Power Miscalculation with Adm. Paul Zukunft, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. csis.org 9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Challenges of Governance and Security in North Africa and the Sahel. carnegieendowment.org 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Book Discussion of “On Grand Strategy” with author John Lewis Gaddis. brookings.edu 12 noon. Turkey’s Snap Elections: Erdogan’s Gambit (invite only). defenddemocracy.org 5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Rogers Strategic Issues Forum with Lt. Gen. Nadja West, the 44th Army Surgeon General. ausa.org |
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