Despite crash and cost concerns, F-35 faces bright future, program chief says

F-35 WILL ONLY GET CHEAPER: The Pentagon’s latest contract with Lockheed Martin includes innovative incentives to promote more efficient assembly of F-35s, which should bring the unit cost of the fighter jet under $80 million by the time the plane moves to full-rate production around 2020, Vice Adm. Mat Winter, the F-35 program director, told reporters yesterday.

Late last week, the F-35 Joint Program Office signed an $11.5 billion contract for its latest batch of 141 F-35s under what’s known as Low Rate Initial Production Lot 11. Winter says by Lot 14, which should be awarded in 2020, the price should be close to what it would cost to replace legacy aircraft, like an updated version of the venerable F-15 that Boeing proposed to the Air Force this year. “Lockheed Martin committed to the U.S. government an $80 million jet by Lot 14. We are holding them to that commitment,” Winter said. “I anticipate an $80 million or lower jet in Lot 14.”

COST CONCERNS: While he’s decidedly upbeat about the future of the F-35 program, Winter has two big concerns. The plane is costing too much and taking too long to build, due to inefficiencies on the production line that require too many things to be reworked, repaired or scrapped as the plane moves down the line. “Right now, Lot 10 aircraft are coming off defect-free, but these quality issues during the production line process are causing those late monthly deliveries and increased cost to the contractor,” Winter said. Hence the focus on financial incentives pinned to increasing efficiency.

The other big concern is sustainability — the cost of keeping the planes operating in the field and maintaining a high mission-capable rate. The solution, Winter says, is getting more maintenance depots up and running, stockpiling more spare parts, giving more autonomy to mechanics on the flight line, and upgrading the plane’s sophisticated software, which has a tendency to false-report that parts need to be replaced when they don’t.

THE FIRST CRASH: The F-35 has an enviable safety record so far, with 320 planes in operation around the world along with 680 pilots who have logged more than 155,000 flight hours. But Friday the program suffered its first loss of a $100 million aircraft when a Marine Corps F-35B went down near Beaufort, S.C. The Marine Corps has the lead in the investigation, but Winter says so far there is no indication of any systemic problem with the short-takeoff/vertical-landing variant of the plane. “If something is identified that would cause a technical expert to identify a concern for broader fleet implications, we will learn that,” Winter said. “But there has been nothing to date to indicate anything of that kind, and there have been no restrictions of other flight operations or other flight envelopes for any other part of our F-35 enterprise.”

TURKEY’S 100 PLANES: Winter made clear that if Congress or the administration made good on a threat to cut Turkey out of the F-35 program, which has several international partner nations, over other political concerns it would have a major impact. “Turkey remains a committed partner. They pay all of their cost-share responsibilities on time. Their industrial base provides multiple parts on every F-35 and continues to provide quality industrial participation to us,” he said. Turkey has been given its first two F-35s, and has two more scheduled for delivery next March, although the planes stay in the U.S. initially while the foreign pilots train. “I don’t see any indication at this time of any change to the delivery of their 100 jets,” Winter said.

Congress included language in this year’s National Defense Authorization Act requiring a review of Turkey’s purchase of S-400 air defenses from Russia, and its continued detention of American pastor Andrew Brunson. “We stand ready to engage with any change in policy that may occur,” Winter said. “But there is no change in policy and executing … and supporting the NDAA as written.”

TRUMP NOT PART OF THE DEAL: The last time the F-35 Joint Program Office announced it had negotiated a lower price for the F-35 with Lockheed Martin, President Trump said it was because of his personal intervention. It was not in Lockheed Martin’s interest to correct the president, who was sharply critical of the program cost, and who has since become a fan of the “invisible” jet.

This time around, Trump has yet to weigh in on the deal, which again produced a significant reduction of the cost — more than 5 percent for A and B models and more than 10 percent for the C model designed for carrier landings. And while Winter was careful to stay in his lane, he indicated there was no presidential participation in the Lot 11 negotiations. “I have no insight to any engagements by the president, that’s above my level,” Winter said, explaining that he provided the information about the negotiation outcomes to his superiors at the Pentagon, who would be the ones to brief the president. “It was a full team effort and engagement with Lockheed Martin,” that produced what Winter called “a considerable, but targeted cost reduction.” Winter did say he has had no discussion with Trump about the cost of the program.

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

RED STORM RISING: The Pentagon confirmed yesterday that Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has canceled plans to visit China this month after Chinese officials refused to say who if anyone Mattis would be able to meet with. It’s just another indication of increasing tensions with Beijing over its militarization of islands in the South China Sea and its trade war with Trump.

Word that the planned “two-plus-two” security talks that were also to include Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were being scrapped came a day after the destroyer USS Decatur, asserting the right to sail through international waters, passed within 12 miles of reefs claimed by China near the Spratly Islands and was forced to change course by a Chinese destroyer, which reportedly came within 45 feet of the U.S. ship.

China has also complained about two flights of U.S. B-52 bombers over the area, which the U.S. said was just part of routine training. China in response canceled a planned visit by the head of its navy to Washington and denied a request for the amphibious assault ship USS Wasp to make a port call at Hong Kong.

IT’LL BE FINE: Mattis is in Paris today, en route to the NATO Defense Ministerial that begins tomorrow in Brussels. As he did last week, he downplayed the downturn in U.S.-China relations. “There’s tension points in the relationship, but based on discussions coming out of New York last week and other things that we have coming up, we do not see it getting worse,” Mattis told reporters traveling with him, according to the Associated Press. “We’ll sort this out.”

MONEY IN THE BANK: You could almost hear the collective sigh of relief around the Pentagon yesterday as the building’s military and civilian workers began their day without the usual start of the fiscal year budget woes. When Trump signed the defense appropriations bill Friday, it meant the money started flowing from Day 1.

The bipartisan budget deal was lauded by Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, who said it makes a big difference in how the Pentagon can be better stewards of the taxpayers’ money.

“It took us years to get into this problem and you don’t spend money efficiently, you don’t spend money as a good steward, if you lurch from year to year,” Dunford told reporters traveling with him to Europe. “You can’t plan a program and develop capabilities over time.”

“We need to have predictability to properly prioritize what we are going to invest in,” he said. “Every year, no matter how big the budget is, you have to make choices. We are much better at making choices if we are informed by a three-to-five-year look ahead and predict what level of funding we will have.”

IRAN’S ‘RECKLESS’ TARGETING: The Pentagon is criticizing an Iranian missile attack that purportedly targeted ISIS militants in southeastern Syria, calling it “reckless, unsafe and escalatory.”

In a statement provided to Voice of America, Pentagon spokesman Cmdr. Sean Robertson said Iran took no measures to notify other military forces operating in Syria of Monday’s predawn missile strike. “Given the complex nature of the battlespace, such strikes potentially jeopardize the forces who are actively fighting ISIS in Syria,” Robertson said. “Any Iranian activity in this area is reckless, unsafe and escalatory.”

MISSILE COUNT: Iran has launched as many as 39 ballistic missiles since July 2015, according to a count by Behnam Ben Taleblu, a research fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who closely follows Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile programs.

“This is the third time in less than two years that Iran has used ballistic missiles in an operation against targets in Syria and Iraq,” Taleblu said. “Iran’s increased willingness to fire ballistic missiles from its own territory into another state’s backyard is both a political signal of its defiance against the West as well as measure of its confidence that these measures will not invite kinetic reprisal against their own homeland.”

STATE DEPARTMENT’S REMINDER: National security officials shouldn’t forget about the dangers posed by the threat of nuclear terrorism, according to a senior State Department official.

“It is, in a sense, our solemn charge to do everything we can to make sure you don’t have to hear about it because it has been entirely suppressed,” Christopher Ashley Ford, the assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation, told a national security conference Monday. “But it’s still good to talk about nuclear smuggling and nuclear terrorism from time to time, to ensure that everyone remains focused upon keeping this true.”

THE RUNDOWN

Defense News: DoD hands out $7.54 billion in year-end contract bonanza

Reuters: U.S. and Turkey begin training for joint patrols in Syria’s Manbij

Bloomberg: Blame a Spark Plug for U.S.-Japan Missile Failure, Pentagon Says

Military Times: Adopted daughter of military family will have to leave the country, court rules

Air Force Magazine: Is DOD Missing the Boat on High-Tech Innovation?

Task and Purpose: The National Guard Officer Accused Of Taking An APC On A Joyride Will Have His Day In Court

Army Times: ‘We can do a little better for that soldier’: A Green Beret just got his Silver Star upgraded to a Medal of Honor

Breaking Defense: NATO Ops Center Goes 24/7 To Counter Russians: Gen. Scaparrotti

Defense One: Want Better Peacekeeping Ops? Add Women

Calendar

TUESDAY | OCT. 2

8 a.m. 600 New Hampshire Ave. NW. Defense One Global Business Briefing 2018 with Mitch Snyder, President and CEO of Bell. defenseone.com

8:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Nuclear Energy, Naval Propulsion, and National Security with Keynote by Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations. csis.org

9 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW. America engaged: Attitudes toward US global leadership. aei.org

10 a.m. Dirksen 419. Full Committee Hearing Russia’s Role in Syria and the Broader Middle East with James Jeffrey, Special Representative for Syria Engagement. Foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Col. Sean Ryan, spokesman, Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve briefs the media by video. Streamed live on www.defense.gov/live.

11 a.m. Pentagon Hall of Heroes. Deputy Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, Secretary of the Army Mark Esper and Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley participate in a Hall of Heroes induction ceremony for Medal of Honor recipient Army Staff Sgt Ronald J. Shurer II. Streamed live on www.defense.gov/live.

11:30 a.m. 901 17th St. NW. The Embassy/Defense Attaché Luncheon Series Featuring Sweden’s Maj. Gen. Bengt Svensson. ndia.org

WEDNESDAY | OCT. 3

7 a.m. 6715 Commerce St. Augmented Reality Workshop. ndia.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Syria’s Proxy Battle: Regional Players and U.S. Policy. hudson.org

2 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. Foreign Policy Conference: Tyrants, Terrorists, and Threats to the 21st Century World Order with Sue Gordon, Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence. jewishpolicycenter.org

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. A Conversation with Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi. usip.org

3 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Russia and the Evolving European Security Order. csis.org

4 p.m. 1152 15th St. NW. Presentation: A look at the European Intervention Initiative by Brig. Gen. Bertrand Toujouse, the head of the International Affairs Department at the French Ministry of Defense. cnas.org

THURSDAY | OCT. 4

7 a.m. 2650 Virginia Ave. NW. Defense One 5th Anniversary – The Future of Defense with Chuck Hagel, Former Defense Secretary. defenseone.com

8 a.m. 2201 G St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Navy Under Secretary Thomas Modly.

9 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Release of the 2019 Index of U.S. Military Strength. heritage.org

12 noon. 740 15th St. NW. Book Launch for LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media with Authors Peter Singer and Emerson Brooking. newamerica.org

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. Preserving the Past to Strengthen Afghanistan’s Future. usip.org

3:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. China’s Alliances with North Korea and the Soviet Union: A Conversation with China’s Leading Historians. wilsoncenter.org

5:50 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Navigating Cyber Conflict: A Conversation with David Sanger. carnegieendowment.org

FRIDAY | OCT. 5

9 a.m. 901 17th St. NW. The Next Battle of the Atlantic? A Conversation with Adm. James Foggo, Commander of US Naval Forces Europe. atlanticcouncil.org

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue: Naval Aviation and Readiness Recovery for Combat with Vice Adm. DeWolfe Miller, Commander of Naval Air Forces, and Lt. Gen. Steven Rudder, Deputy Commandant for Marine Corps Aviation. csis.org

1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. LikeWar: Book Discussion of LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media with Author Peter Singer. csis.org

6 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. 2018 Defence Media Awards. defencemediadinner.com

MONDAY | OCT. 8

6:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 2018 AUSA Annual Meeting and Exposition with Army Secretary Mark Esper; Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence; Gen. Mark Milley, Army Chief of Staff; and others. ausameetings.org

TUESDAY | OCT. 9

7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 2018 AUSA Annual Meeting and Exposition with Army Secretary Mark Esper; Gen. Mark Milley, Army Chief of Staff; Director of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen; and others. ausameetings.org

5 p.m. 901 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Cocktails and Conversation: Army Futures, Near and Far with Gen. Gary Volesky, Commanding General of Army iCorps. defenseone.org

QUOTE OF THE DAY
“I have challenges. I have challenges to the availability and mission-capable rates to ensure the F-35 system we are delivering today can keep up with the pace of operations that our warfighter demands.”
F-35 Joint Program Office director Vice Adm. Mat Winter, speaking to reporters about the continued problems with production delays and maintenance costs for the Pentagon’s most expensive weapons program ever.

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