US orders American civilians out of Iraq as tensions with Iran escalate

‘HELLUVA LOT MORE’: In knocking down a New York Times report that one Pentagon plan calls for the deployment of up to 120,000 troops — roughly the size of the force that invaded Iraq in 2003 — President Trump simultaneously mocked the story as “fake news” and upped the ante.

“Now would I do that? Absolutely. But we have not planned for that. Hopefully, we’re not going to have to plan for that. And if we did that, we’d send a hell of a lot more troops than that,” Trump told reporters on the White House lawn.

HIGH ALERT: U.S. Central Command, which has responsibility for most of the Middle East, issued a statement late yesterday saying that all troops assigned to Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S.-led counter ISIS coalition, had been placed on “a high level of alert,” based on “credible and possibly imminent threats to U.S. forces in Iraq.”

GET OUT: Today the State Department ordered civilian “non-emergency U.S. government employees” to leave Iraq. The order applies to staff at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and the U.S. consulate in Erbil, according to a security alert on the embassy website.

“Normal visa services at both posts will be temporarily suspended,” the statement says. “The U.S. government has limited ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in Iraq.” It advises that Americans “Avoid U.S. facilities within Iraq.”

WAY OFF MESSAGE: The top spokesman for CENTCOM also issued what can only be seen as a sharp rebuke to British Maj. Gen. Chris Ghika, the coalition’s deputy commander for strategy and information. “Recent comments from OIR’s Deputy Commander run counter to the identified credible threats available to intelligence from U.S. and allies regarding Iranian backed forces in the region,” said Navy Capt. Bill Urban in a statement emailed to reporters.

Urban was cleaning up a mess Ghika caused when he asserted several times during a video briefing from Baghdad that there was no increased risk to U.S. or coalition troops from Iranian-backed militias operating in Iraq.

Ghika appeared to be trying to draw a nuanced difference between the specific threat from Shia militia groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces that helped defeat ISIS in Iraq and the larger threat that might be posed by Iran in the region. “There’s been no increased threat from Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria,” Ghika said, later explaining, “There are plenty of Iranian-backed forces in the PMF who do not present any threat whatsoever to the coalition, and we are monitoring the range of them very carefully.”

Ghika was grilled by stunned Pentagon reporters about the disconnect, and at one point Carla Babb, Pentagon correspondent for VOA, invited Ghika to walk back his comments. “So did you misspeak when you were answering my question?” she asked. Ghika’s answers only sowed more confusion.

As the briefing was ending, NPR’s Tom Bowman tried a different tack, asking simply if the force protection level had been raised for coalition troops in theater. A yes would have confirmed his previous answers were not forthright, so he dodged. “If you come to Baghdad, if you come into our base in Baghdad, then we’ll tell you what the threat level is,” he said, ending the questioning.

CENTCOM was forced to go into full damage-control mode, because if it let Ghika’s comments stand, they would undoubtedly fuel the debate over whether the United States is hyping the undisclosed threats as a pretext for increasing military pressure on Iran.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is back from his meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Sochi, Russia, and is expected to brief President Trump sometime today. His official schedule has him attending meetings at the State Department. In a joint press conference with Lavrov at the conclusion of the meetings, Pompeo said the U.S. military moves were in the interest of deterrence.

“We fundamentally do not seek a war with Iran. We’re looking for the regime to simply stop conducting assassination campaigns throughout Europe, to cease their support of Hezbollah that threatens interests all across the Middle East, their support for the Houthis that are launching missiles into areas where there are Russians and Americans traveling,” Pompeo said. “But we’ve also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests are attacked, we will most certainly respond in an appropriate fashion.”

IN THE DARK: Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress have been complaining that they have received no formal briefing on the intelligence that suggests Iran is plotting attacks against the United States.

Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan made the rounds on Capitol Hill yesterday, and among the lawmakers he briefed was Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. In a statement, Duckworth said she cautioned Shanahan against moving toward conflict without the consent of Congress.

“The drums of war appear to be growing louder at the White House, so I also made sure to make one thing clear: the President does not have the legal or constitutional authority to declare war, Congress does,” Duckworth said. “Before the Trump Administration makes a decision that could lead our military into intentional or accidental armed conflict, the President must get Congressional approval — and he must level with the American people about what the true costs of that conflict would be, in both dollars and cents and human lives.”

THE WAR AGAINST ISIS RAGES: Lost in all the back and forth about the threat to U.S. troops that dominated yesterday’s coalition briefing from Baghdad was the sobering message that while ISIS has lost all its territory, thousands of its fighters have regrouped in Iraq and are nowhere close to being defeated.

The briefer, Maj. Gen. Ghika, using the Arabic acronym for ISIS, said Daesh has simply gone underground and remains a significant threat

“It has been reorganizing itself into a network of cells and intent on striking key leaders, village elders, and military personnel to undermine the security and stability in Iraq and Syria,” he said. “Daesh fighters are still ambushing security patrols, detonating [improvised explosive devices], and conducting kidnappings.”

“Despite its territorial setbacks, Daesh is still having successes, and its ideology still inspires people around the world.”

ISIS IN SYRIA: While most ISIS fighters have moved to Iraq, Ghika also noted that there’s a looming humanitarian and political crisis in northeast Syria, where tens of thousands of internally displaced persons are confined to overflowing refugee camps.

“Local and international humanitarian organizations are managing the situation, but we must be mindful that there is a large concentration of radicalized individuals in these camps who will want to return to their homes in Syria, Iraq, and elsewhere,” he said. “We need to assist with deradicalization and education to prevent a new generation of Daesh emerging when these people go home.”

ISW WARNING: The Institute for the Study of War warns that ISIS has a unique and dangerous opportunity to exploit conditions in the camps and detention facilities. “The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) do not have adequate resources to detain the suspected 9,000 ISIS fighters and 63,000 ISIS family members currently housed in a network of detention facilities and internally displaced persons camps,” write John Dunford and Jennifer Cafarella in their latest analysis.

They cite the situation at the al-Hawl camp, which they say is over capacity by roughly 30,000 people and holds a combustible mix of ideologically committed ISIS family members and other civilians. “Female ISIS members within the camp have attacked guards and other civilians,” they write, while assessing that ISIS is already networking within al-Hawl.

“ISIS may attempt a breakout of both detained fighters and displaced persons as part of its 2019 Ramadan campaign and/or its wider resurgent campaign in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. must urgently help the SDF adequately secure these facilities and process their inhabitants.”

GROWING CHINA-RUSSIA ALLIANCE: The Hudson Institute is out with a new report, “The Expanding China-Russia Defense Partnership,” in which senior fellow Richard Weitz examines the threat posed to America and its allies by the expanding China-Russia security relationship. Here are the report’s five key takeaways:

1. Russia and China’s relationship is increasingly strengthened by arms sales, joint military exercises, and mutual diplomatic support. With growing frequency, the two countries express joint concern towards “threatening” U.S. military capabilities and security policies.
2. China’s growing ability to deny foreign navies access to waters and airspace is connected to the sophisticated defense platforms provided by Russia.
3. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are seeking a closer defense partnership, which could take the form of integrated military operations, collaboration on battlefield technology, or a joint missile defense system.
4. Through joint military exercises, China is learning from Russia’s military experience in Crimea, gaining operational knowledge on expeditionary logistics and how to protect military bases in foreign countries.
5. In 2021, the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship expires. Its renewal could introduce new dynamics to the China-Russian relationship and include collective defense provisions like those between the United States and Japan.

THWARTING CHINA’S TECH THEFT: Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., has introduced a bill aimed at preventing China from acquiring sensitive U.S. technology through predatory trade practices that force American companies to give up intellectual property and strategic technology to do business in China. “Once China has the technology, it invariably finds its way to the Chinese military,” Hawley said in a press release yesterday.

The China Technology Transfer Control Act of 2019 would put 15 core technologies, including artificial intelligence, robotics, semiconductors, advanced construction equipment, and lithium battery manufacturing, on an export control list requiring a license to sell to China.

The law would also admonish China for “intellectual property theft and manipulation of lawful transfer and uses of technology in ways that directly support its military objectives and threaten the United States.”

‘NO WAY IN HELL’: At yesterday’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., went on a bit of a rant about the prospect of U.S. allies buying 5G technology from Chinese companies.

Fifth-generation wireless technology, or 5G, is expected not only to provide 20 times faster network performance but also fundamentally change our society, our economy, and our national security.

Graham, who admitted he’s not an expert on the subject, said using Chinese 5G technology presents a real threat because of links between Chinese companies and the Chinese military.

“So the policy of the United States, Democrats and Republicans, I hope, will be that if you buy their stuff, because of the way they do business, you’re going to lose access to information technology coming from America,” Graham said, adding that “there’s no way in hell” that U.S. allies should be using 5G technology from Chinese companies.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Pompeo ‘very excited’ about Syria talks with Putin

AP: Iran’s supreme leader makes uranium enrichment threat

Military Times: Military plans to counter Iran include possible 120,000 troop deployment, cyber attack ‘Nitro Zeus’

New York Times: U.S. Allies Respond Skeptically To Latest Claims of Iran Threat

Agence France Presse: Spain Pulls Its Frigate From U.S. Military Build-Up In Gulf

Breaking Defense: House Dems Block Wall Funds, Slash Sub, But Add F-35s

Air Force Magazine: Fighter Jets Win, Space Force Stalls in House Defense Spending Bill

Foreign Policy: The New Space Race

Reuters: U.S. Says China’s Focus On Its South China Sea Operations Unwarranted

The Atlantic: Ignoring Trump’s Orders, Hoping He’ll Forget

Navy Times: Op-Ed: The strategic incoherence of our carrier policies

Bloomberg: Opinion: James Stavridis — National Security Risks Are Rising With Sea Levels

AP: Congresswomen to form a caucus focusing on female veterans

Seapower Magazine: Navy Secretary Names New Destroyer in Honor of U.S. Senator From Georgia

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | MAY 15

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Highway, Arlington. Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion on: “Global Integration and 21st Century Conflict: From Strategy to Action,” featuring Lt. Gen. David Allvin, director of strategy, plans, and policy, Joint Staff. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/mitchell-hour

10 a.m. 2154 Rayburn. House Oversight and Reform Committee hearing: “DOD Inspector General Report on Excess Profits by TransDigm Group, Inc.” oversight.house.gov

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies “Maritime Security Dialogue,” with Vice Adm. William Merz, deputy chief of naval operations for warfare systems, and moderated by Mark Cancian, CSIS. Livestreamed at www.csis.org/events.

10:15 a.m. 419 Dirksen. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “The Future of Arms Control Post-Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.” Witnesses: Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Andrea Thompson and David Trachtenberg, deputy under secretary of defense for policy. foreign.senate.gov

11:15 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments releases two “Net Assessment” reports on the “Changing Nuclear Balance.” Speakers include authors Thomas Mahnken and Evan Braden Montgomery, along with Amb. Eric Edelman, former undersecretary of defense for policy, and Frank Rose of the Brookings Institution. csbaonline.org/about/events

2 p.m. 2172 Rayburn. House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism Subcommittee hearing: “The Conflict in Libya.” Witnesses: Benjamin Fishman, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and adjunct international security and defense policy analyst for the RAND Corporation; Megan Doherty, senior director for policy and advocacy at Mercy Corps; Frederic Wehrey, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Program; and Thomas Hill, senior program officer for North Africa at the United States Institute of Peace. foreignaffairs.house.gov

2 p.m. 620 T St. N.W. Government Matters hosts a screening of the documentary The Dawn of Generation AI. Speakers include: Brian Gattoni, chief technology officer, Office of Cybersecurity and Communications, Department of Homeland Security; Cory Milam, director, Office of Innovation, Food and Drug Administration; Lee Becker, chief of staff, Veterans Experience Office, Veterans Affairs; and Capt. Patrick Schreiber, U.S. Coast Guard Intelligence Coordination Center. govmattersai.com

2:30 p.m. 418 Russell. Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing on the nomination of James Byrne to be deputy veterans affairs secretary. veterans.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 16

8 a.m. 2401 M St N.W. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/ourevents

8:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Nuclear Deterrence Series discussion with John Rood, under secretary of defense for policy. www.mitchellaerospacepower.org

10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Department of Defense’s Financial Improvement and Audit Remediation Plan: The Path Forward.” Witnesses: Defense Undersecretary/Comptroller David Norquist; Thomas Harker, assistant secretary of the Navy for financial management and comptroller; John Roth, assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management and comptroller; and John Whitley, assistant secretary of the Army for financial management and comptroller. armedservices.house.gov

12 p.m. National Press Club, 529 14th St. N.W. Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences Chair of Tropical Medicine Dr. David Brett-Major moderates a panel and speaks at the Texas A&M University and the George H.W. Bush School of Government & Public Service’s Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs’ 3rd annual Pandemic and Biosecurity Forum.

12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW. Hudson Institute event: “Benefits and Ramifications of America’s Proxy Wars.” Speakers: Candace Rondeaux, Center on the Future of War; Abbas Kadhim, Atlantic Council; C. Anthony Pfaff, U.S. Army War College; and Michael Pregent, senior fellow, Hudson Institute. www.hudson.org/events

11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ new report “Sustaining the Fight: Resilient Maritime Logistics for a New Era” is discussed with Navy Secretary Richard V. Spencer. csbaonline.org/about/events

1 p.m. 1100 New York Ave. N.W. National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service holds a hearing on “Increasing Awareness Among Young Americans and Lessening the Civil-Military Divide.” inspire2serve.gov

2:30 p.m. House Armed Services Military Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Military Personnel Management – How Are the Military Services Adapting to Recruit, Retain, and Manage High Quality Talent to Meet the Needs of a Modern Military?” Witnesses: James Stewart, performing the duties of the under secretary of defense for personnel and readiness; Lt. Gen. Thomas Seamands, Army deputy chief of staff; Vice Adm. Robert Burke, chief of naval personnel; Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, Air Force deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel and services, United States Air Force; and Lt. Gen. Michael Rocco, deputy Marine Corps commandant for manpower and reserve affairs. armedservices.house.gov

FRIDAY | MAY 17

9:30 a.m. 1800 M Street N.W. Foundation for Defense of Democracies breakfast event, “Muslim Brotherhood Designations: Understanding the Options, Criteria, and Implications.” Speakers: Amy Hawthorne, deputy director of research at the Project on Middle East Democracy; Samuel Tadros, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; and Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at FDD. Moderated by Nancy Youssef, national security correspondent at the Wall Street Journal. Register at fdd.wufoo.com.

11 a.m. 1030 15th St N.W. Atlantic Council “Commanders Series” conversation on “The Future of the Army in Great-Power Competition” with Army Secretary Mark Esper. Moderated by Vago Muradian, Defense & Aerospace Report. www.atlanticcouncil.org/events

12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Avenue N.E. Heritage Foundation “fireside chat” with Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on “Strengthening U.S. Leadership in an Era of Global Competition.” Hosted by the Heritage Foundation’s James Jay Carafano. Livestreamed at heritage.org/defense/event.

TUESDAY | MAY 21

2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn. House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Military Personnel, and Veteran’s Affairs Committee joint hearing on “Military and Veteran Suicide: Understanding the Problem and Preparing for the Future.” Witnesses: Elizabeth Van Winkle, Department of Defense; Navy Capt. Mike Colston, M.D., director, mental health policy and oversight; Keita Franklin, national director of suicide prevention, Department of Veterans Affairs; and Michael Fischer, chief readjustment counseling officer, Department of Veterans Affairs.

THURSDAY | MAY 23

3 p.m. 51 Louisiana Ave N.W. The National Security Institute and the Federalist Society co-host a symposium examining two questions regarding Syria policy: “Does Congress Need to Weigh In?” and “Stay In, Get Out, or Triple Down?” Speakers include: Jennifer Daskal, associate professor of law at American University; retired Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap, executive director, Center on Law, Ethics and National Security; Jeremy Rabkin, professor of law, George Mason University; Norm Roule, former national intelligence manager for Iran office of the DNI; and Dana Stroul, the Washington Institute. nationalsecurity.gmu.edu

THURSDAY | MAY 30

1:30 p.m. 1152 15th Street N.W. Center for a New American Security “Fireside Chat” on the FY 2020 defense budget with David Norquist, performing the duties of the deputy secretary of defense. Moderated by Susanna Blume, senior fellow and deputy director, CNAS’s Defense Program. www.cnas.org/events