Special elections, we are often reminded by losing parties the morning after, are special. And indeed, there were certain factors unique to Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, which it seems Republicans just lost by a razor-thin margin, that are unlikely to be replicated nationally. Among other things, by the nature of the special election Democrat Conor Lamb, the likely winner, was hand-picked by local Democratic party bosses to fit his district. Had he faced a primary, as other moderate Democrats will in the coming months, it would have been difficult to maintain positions he took, such as supporting gun rights. Republican Rick Saccone, in contrast, also received poor reviews as a candidate.
At the same time, however, it should be remarked that Democrats won’t require such a perfect storm to gain the 24 seats needed to take over the House. In 2016, President Trump beat Hillary Clinton by about 20 points in this Pennsylvania district. But there are 117 seats currently held by Republicans in districts in which Trump did worse than that, including 23 seats in districts that were carried by Clinton. The full list, which is based on an analysis of data available at Daily Kos Elections, can be viewed below. (The 117 figure does not include Ohio’s 12th District listed below, which was vacated in January when Pat Tiberi resigned.)
It’s easy, in hindsight, for Republicans to downplay the importance of the Pennsylvania special election given that practically, it’s to fill a seat for nine months before it disappears due to the redrawing of congressional maps. But there’s a reason Republicans pulled out all the stops to keep the seat, with conservative or GOP outside groups pumping in $10.7 million not to mention a pre-election rally from Trump. This was a key testing ground. And Trump’s involvement in a district he won easily did not prevent this result (which even if Saccone somehow overcomes his margin as outstanding ballots trickle in, was a lot closer than it should be in a normal year).
If Trump has so little sway in this district, what are Republicans going to do in districts where he’s been a lot less popular? This is particularly true for relatively affluent and educated Republican-held suburban districts in which Trump’s support is softest and his populist rhetoric has much less resonance.
The deeper problem for Republicans is the difficulty they’ll have in making a positive case as to why they should be re-elected. They passed tax cuts last year and failed to deliver on the promise to repeal and replace Obamacare, and they aren’t doing anything to restrain spending. So what, exactly, is the policy agenda that Republicans will be advancing if they are put back in power? Right now, it seems that they’re just relying on attacking House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who savvy Democratic candidates can easily create distance from, as Lamb showed. Given that midterm elections are about enthusiasm and turnout, it seems that Democrats are much more likely to be able to energize voters by running as a check on the unpopular Trump.
| Representative | Trump % – Clinton % | |
| FL-27 | Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana | -19.6 |
| FL-26 | Curbelo, Carlos | -16.3 |
| CA-21 | Valadao, David | -15.5 |
| VA-10 | Comstock, Barbara | -10 |
| MN-03 | Paulsen, Erik | -9.4 |
| CO-06 | Coffman, Mike | -8.9 |
| CA-39 | Royce, Ed | -8.6 |
| CA-49 | Issa, Darrell | -7.5 |
| IL-06 | Roskam, Peter | -7 |
| CA-25 | Knight, Steve | -6.7 |
| CA-45 | Walters, Mimi | -5.4 |
| AZ-02 | McSally, Martha | -4.9 |
| NY-24 | Katko, John | -3.6 |
| TX-23 | Hurd, Will | -3.4 |
| WA-08 | Reichert, David | -3 |
| CA-10 | Denham, Jeff | -3 |
| PA-07 | Meehan, Pat | -2.3 |
| TX-32 | Sessions, Pete | -1.9 |
| CA-48 | Rohrabacher, Dana | -1.7 |
| TX-07 | Culberson, John | -1.4 |
| KS-03 | Yoder, Kevin | -1.2 |
| NJ-07 | Lance, Leonard | -1.1 |
| PA-06 | Costello, Ryan | -0.6 |
| PA-08 | Fitzpatrick, Brian | 0.2 |
| NJ-11 | Frelinghuysen, Rodney | 0.9 |
| MN-02 | Lewis, Jason | 1.2 |
| GA-06 | Handel, Karen | 1.5 |
| FL-25 | Diaz-Balart, Mario | 1.8 |
| NE-02 | Bacon, Don | 2.2 |
| VA-02 | Taylor, Scott | 3.4 |
| IA-03 | Young, David | 3.5 |
| IA-01 | Blum, Rod | 3.5 |
| IL-14 | Hultgren, Randy | 3.9 |
| MI-11 | Trott, Dave | 4.4 |
| NJ-02 | LoBiondo, Frank | 4.6 |
| IL-13 | Davis, Rodney | 5.5 |
| NJ-03 | MacArthur, Tom | 6.2 |
| TX-24 | Marchant, Kenny | 6.2 |
| GA-07 | Woodall, Rob | 6.3 |
| VA-07 | Brat, Dave | 6.5 |
| OH-01 | Chabot, Steve | 6.6 |
| UT-04 | Love, Mia | 6.7 |
| MI-08 | Bishop, Mike | 6.7 |
| NY-19 | Faso, John | 6.8 |
| PA-16 | Smucker, Lloyd | 6.8 |
| OH-10 | Turner, Michael | 7.3 |
| WA-03 | Herrera Beutler, Jaime | 7.4 |
| PA-15 | Dent, Charlie | 7.6 |
| TX-22 | Olson, Pete | 7.9 |
| MI-06 | Upton, Fred | 8.4 |
| TX-10 | McCaul, Michael | 9.1 |
| NY-02 | King, Peter | 9.1 |
| FL-18 | Mast, Brian | 9.2 |
| TX-02 | Poe, Ted | 9.3 |
| MI-03 | Amash, Justin | 9.4 |
| NC-13 | Budd, Ted | 9.4 |
| CA-22 | Nunes, Devin | 9.5 |
| NC-02 | Holding, George | 9.6 |
| NY-11 | Donovan, Dan | 9.8 |
| AZ-06 | Schweikert, David | 10 |
| TX-21 | Smith, Lamar | 10 |
| FL-15 | Ross, Dennis | 10 |
| NM-02 | Pearce, Steve | 10.2 |
| ME-02 | Poliquin, Bruce | 10.3 |
| MO-02 | Wagner, Ann | 10.3 |
| WI-01 | Ryan, Paul | 10.3 |
| AR-02 | Hill, French | 10.7 |
| FL-16 | Buchanan, Vern | 10.7 |
| VA-05 | Garrett, Tom | 11.1 |
| OH-12 | (Vacated by Tiberi, R-Ohio) | 11.3 |
| OH-14 | Joyce, David | 11.5 |
| NC-09 | Pittenger, Robert | 11.6 |
| IN-05 | Brooks, Susan | 11.8 |
| CO-03 | Tipton, Scott | 12 |
| CA-42 | Calvert, Ken | 12 |
| NV-02 | Amodei, Mark | 12.3 |
| NY-01 | Zeldin, Lee | 12.3 |
| TX-06 | Barton, Joe | 12.3 |
| VA-01 | Wittman, Rob | 12.4 |
| TX-31 | Carter, John | 12.7 |
| WA-05 | McMorris Rodgers, Cathy | 13.1 |
| SC-01 | Sanford, Mark | 13.1 |
| OK-05 | Russell, Steve | 13.4 |
| NY-21 | Stefanik, Elise | 13.9 |
| UT-02 | Stewart, Chris | 14 |
| TX-03 | Johnson, Sam | 14.2 |
| CA-04 | McClintock, Tom | 14.7 |
| NC-06 | Walker, Mark | 14.7 |
| NY-23 | Reed, Tom | 14.8 |
| IL-12 | Bost, Mike | 14.8 |
| NJ-04 | Smith, Chris | 14.8 |
| TX-25 | Williams, Roger | 14.9 |
| CA-50 | Hunter, Duncan | 15 |
| NC-08 | Hudson, Richard | 15 |
| CA-08 | Cook, Paul | 15.1 |
| AK-AL | Young, Don | 15.2 |
| KY-06 | Barr, Andy | 15.3 |
| OH-15 | Stivers, Steve | 15.4 |
| NY-22 | Tenney, Claudia | 15.5 |
| GA-01 | Carter, Buddy | 15.5 |
| FL-03 | Yoho, Ted | 16 |
| OH-02 | Wenstrup, Brad | 16.1 |
| GA-12 | Allen, Rick | 16.2 |
| OH-16 | Renacci, Jim | 16.6 |
| WI-06 | Grothman, Glenn | 16.9 |
| MI-07 | Walberg, Tim | 17 |
| FL-06 | DeSantis, Ron | 17 |
| IL-16 | Kinzinger, Adam | 17.2 |
| TX-17 | Flores, Bill | 17.5 |
| MI-02 | Huizenga, Bill | 17.6 |
| WI-08 | Gallagher, Mike | 17.6 |
| NC-05 | Foxx, Virginia | 17.6 |
| SC-02 | Wilson, Joe | 17.7 |
| NC-07 | Rouzer, David | 17.7 |
| KS-02 | Jenkins, Lynn | 18.4 |
| SC-05 | Norman, Ralph | 18.5 |
| FL-12 | Bilirakis, Gus | 18.6 |
| SC-07 | Rice, Tom | 18.9 |
