Marylhurst College, a 125-year-old private school in Oregon, announced this month that it will close its doors at the end of 2018. In The Human Advantage, I predict that in the coming years many more will follow.
Why? First, our current system costs way too much. The price tag (adjusted for inflation) has more than tripled in the last thirty years. Student debt is now $1.3 trillion dollars.
Second, the quality of scholarship is declining. Ninety-eight percent of research published in humanities journals is not cited even once in the relevant literature. Meanwhile, more and more students are taught by underpaid adjunct instructors so that this research can be conducted.
Third, political correctness has tarnished the image of the college experience. Not all universities are oppressive, politically correct hothouses, but more than enough of them are. Far too many classrooms now resemble Maoist struggle sessions, rather than environments where actual learning takes place. As a result, many colleges provide neither a soul-expanding liberal arts education nor marketable skills.
Fourth, Americans are having fewer children. That means fewer traditional college students.
Finally, and decisively, new technologies are bypassing the old way of doing college — technologies that can deliver the goods at little to no cost. Universities ignore this at their own peril.
We’re still in the early stages of the disruption, so we can only speculate about the crater it will leave behind. But we can still make some educated guesses.
For centuries, good colleges have provided knowledge, culture (a traditional goal of liberal arts), credentials, and connections. But no law dictates that the same institutions must deliver all these services. Expect them to be unbundled in the coming years.
New platforms like SkillShare are already giving rise to new and cheaper choices for basic knowledge. Some even include a liberal arts experience. For instance, Minerva Schools at Keck Graduate Institute combines liberal arts, small student communities, and live online chats with professors.
Tech is also changing traditional colleges, hundreds of which already have online offerings. Expect even more integration of traditional and online learning in the years ahead. Even now, many of our better public school teachers use videos from Khan Academy, the free online tutorial website started by Salman Khan, to teach the children under their care. The in-class teachers then become hands-on tutors. Why do they do this? Because Khan explains subjects, especially math and science, far better than the average teacher. Also, students can watch the video lessons over and over without taxing Khan’s patience.
The same dynamic is true in higher ed. Some free online courses give in-class instruction and testing a run for their money.
Elite schools with multi-billion-dollar endowments aren’t too worried about these challenges. They don’t live or die by tuition, and they offer prestige, credentials, and connections over and above whatever knowledge they impart to students. They’re also best poised to take advantage of new technologies. But it’s a different story for the other 99 percent. Hundreds if not thousands of bad and overpriced colleges and universities are in deep trouble.
Expensive, undistinguished, and nominally or formerly religious private schools will have an especially hard path forward. It’s a simple matter of competition, supply, and demand. Though three out of four Americans think changes are needed in higher education, most also think public and community colleges are worth the cost. Why would parents keep spending $50,000 a year for a private education that is religious in name only, when state or online schools can give students much of what they need at a fraction of the price?
It’s not all bad news for private colleges. Some of them will adapt and survive. Those with strong religious or educational missions that move quickly to offer high quality in-class and online options can weather the storm, especially if they market their differences to the right audience.
But expect messiness, job loss, failures, and false starts in the transition. The result, we may hope, will be new, more diverse, and more effective ways to deliver the services and experiences now bundled together in higher education.
The future can be bright for colleges that adapt and exploit these new opportunities. It could be lights out for those that don’t.
Jay Richards is an Assistant Research Professor in the Busch School of Business and Economics at The Catholic University of America, and a Senior Fellow at the Discovery Institute. This commentary is adapted from his new book The Human Advantage: The Future of American Work in an Age of Smart Machines, which is available for pre-order.
