SLOTKIN IN, LURIA OUT: Two incumbent Democrats who serve on the House Armed Services Committee and boast strong national security resumes faced highly competitive contests in yesterday’s midterm elections, but as of this morning, only one lost.
With 92% of the vote in, Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans, a nurse practitioner and former Navy helicopter pilot, was up 52%-48% over incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA), a former naval surface warfare officer who conceded to Kiggans last night.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District includes Virginia Beach and has a large naval presence. After Luria’s concession, Kiggans thanked her, noting that despite their political differences, “We certainly share a love for our Navy and our country.”
Luria served on the Jan. 6 committee, which has accused former President Donald Trump of fomenting the post-election attack on the Capitol last year. Kiggans has acknowledged that Joe Biden is president but won’t say if she thinks the 2020 election was fair.
In Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, a late endorsement by Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) may have helped save the seat of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), who trailed Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett most of the night but pulled ahead in the early morning hours, 50.9%-47.1%, with 95% of the votes counted.
Both races were called by the Associated Press.
JEN KIGGANS WINS VIRGINIA’S COMPETITIVE 2ND DISTRICT
SPANBERGER SURVIVES: Republicans had hoped to flip three of the five seats they need to take control of the House in Virginia, a state that elected a Republican governor and has been leaning red in recent years. In the end, they only got one.
In Virginia’s 7th District, another Democrat endorsed by Cheney, Rep. Abigail Spanberger, beat her Trump-endorsed opponent Yesli Vega by a 51.9%-48.1% margin.
Spanberger, a centrist Democrat whose website cited a Lugar Center ranking her “as the most bipartisan member of Virginia’s congressional delegation,” was able to paint Vega as a “MAGA extremist” who called the Jan. 6 rioters a group of people “exercising their First Amendment right.”
The third seat Republicans had their eyes on was in the 10th Congressional District in the liberal northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., where incumbent Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA) benefited from massive Democratic turnout in the early voting and cruised to a 53%-47% winning margin.
HASSAN BEATS BACK SPIRITED BOLDUC CHALLENGE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SENATE RACE
ALL EYES ON ARIZONA, GEORGIA: The Democrats’ best chance to retain control of the Senate is to win the Arizona seat held by former astronaut and Navy pilot Sen. Mark Kelly and then for Sen. Raphael Warnock to win the Dec. 6 runoff in Georgia.
Kelly, who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, ran a campaign that invoked the memory of former Republican senator and presidential candidate John McCain, whose seat Kelly won in a special election.
Kelly leads Republican Blake Masters 52%-45.8%, but only 66% of the vote has been counted. There are almost 700,000 votes still to be counted in Maricopa and Pima counties, where Kelly has so far posted commanding leads.
If Kelly hangs on, it would give Democrats 49 seats in the Senate, and all eyes would shift to Georgia, where Trump-endorsed former football star Herschel Walker trails Warnock by less than 1% with 95% of the vote tallied. Under Georgia law, the race is headed to a runoff next month unless Warnock could expand his 49.42% lead to above 50%, which seems unlikely.
The other two Senate seats still in play in Wisconsin and Nevada, Republicans are leading, with former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt up 49.9%-47.2% over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) leading 50.6%-49.4% over Democrat Mandela Barnes with 94% of the vote counted.
Johnson is favored to win, while the Nevada Laxalt-Cortez Masto race, where ballot drop boxes are not counted until after Election Day, is still considered a toss-up.
ARIZONA TOLD TO ‘PREPARE’ FOR DAYS OF COUNTING
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LONG-AWAITED AIR DEFENSES DELIVERED: The Pentagon has confirmed that the sophisticated National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, built by Raytheon and a Norwegian company, promised to Ukraine months ago have finally been delivered to Ukraine.
Two of the NASAMS units are now operational, according to the Pentagon, which said Ukrainian crews were trained to operate the systems in an undisclosed location outside the country.
“When we provide capabilities to the Ukrainians, they will receive training on how to operate and maintain that capability. So they did recently complete that training. It was conducted in Europe. … I’m not going to say where,” said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, at a briefing yesterday. “So those systems are now in Ukraine and operational.”
The Pentagon would not comment on reports that Ukraine is also seeking the C-RAM (Counter-Rocket, Artillery, Mortar) systems operated by the U.S. Army that are particularly effective against drones and artillery.
“We will take into account a lot of different considerations and systems as we explore Ukraine security assistance needs,” said Ryder. “Air defense continues to be a priority … so when we do have something new to announce that we haven’t already, we’ll be sure to put that out.”
ZELENSKY ADVISER: RUSSIA MUST LEAVE BEFORE PEACE TALKS: In response to reports that the Biden administration is privately pressuring Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiations with Putin, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview that talks with Russia will be possible only after the Russian army leaves Ukrainian territory.
“A deal with Putin is a one-way ticket to a world where international law is no longer valid, where law is determined by force, and force is nuclear weapons. And why pay such a price if Putin does not give up the goal of destroying us?” Podolyak told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica. “The ceasefire for Russia is a tactical pause for reinforcement. Is it worth making such a gift to Moscow?”
ZELENSKY: ‘STEP BY STEP’ PROGRESS: In his nightly video address, Zelensky again sought to steel his people about the hard winter that’s fast approaching, conceding that the current counteroffensive has slowed.
“The situation is difficult on the entire front. In some areas, brutal positional battles continue, as before, and it is especially difficult, also as before, in the Donetsk region,” Zelensky said. “The activity of the occupiers there remains at an extremely high level, dozens of attacks every day. They suffer extremely large-scale losses, but their order has not changed — to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region. We do not give up a single centimeter of our land there.
The liberation of Kherson in the south, where Russian troops have dug in and been reinforced, remains a top priority, and Zelensky said Ukrainian forces are preparing for a tough fight.
“We clearly understand what the enemy is planning,” he said. “We are reinforcing our positions, ruining Russian logistics, and consistently destroying the potential of the occupiers to keep the south of our country under occupation. … Step by step, we are moving towards the return of the Ukrainian flag to all our cities and communities.”
PENTAGON LAYS OUT EXPECTATIONS FOR WINTER MONTHS IN UKRAINE
CRIMEA BRIDGE REPAIRS WILL TAKE A YEAR: Russia has said it was able to resume limited use of the 12-mile bridge over the Kerch Strait that links Russia to occupied Crimea shortly after an explosion damaged the span last month.
But British intelligence said the bridge will be able to carry only limited traffic for months to come.
“Russian efforts to repair the Crimean Bridge continue but it is unlikely to be fully operational until at least September 2023,” according to a Twitter thread from the British Defense Ministry.
“Although Crimean officials have claimed these additional spans will be in place by 20 December, a briefing provided to President Putin added that works to the other carriageway would cause disruption to road traffic until March 2023,” according to the British assessment. “Replacement of the damaged rail bridge has been contracted for completion by September 2023, although Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the repair timeline would be expedited.”
“The Crimean bridge attack has disrupted Russian logistics supplies for Crimea and southern Ukraine, reducing Russia’s ability to move military equipment and troops into the area by rail or road. The damage to the bridge, the recent attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol and the probable withdrawal from Kherson all complicate the Russian government’s ability to paint a picture of military success.”
RUSSIA’S CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE SPARK OUTCRY AND RARE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pentagon lays out expectations for winter months in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Russia’s casualties in Ukraine spark outcry and rare government response
Washington Examiner: ‘Hostile attempt to tarnish’: North Korea rebukes US claim it is supplying weapons to Russia
Washington Examiner: Blinken team insists Ukraine policy won’t change due to GOP midterm victories
Washington Examiner: Midterm results: Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeats Republican Yesli Vega in tight Virginia House race
Washington Examiner: Midterm results: Hassan beats back spirited Bolduc challenge in New Hampshire Senate race
Washington Examiner: Midterm results: Jen Kiggans wins Virginia’s competitive 2nd District
Washington Examiner: Rep. Abigail Spanberger defeats Republican Yesli Vega in tight Virginia House race
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Virginia Republicans might go one for three in House races; that’s not great
Wall Street Journal: Australia to review policies after investigation into training of Chinese aircrews raises concerns, following U.K.
Washington Post: White House Says ‘Lines Of Communication’ With Russia Are Still Open
AP: Griner sent to Russian penal colony to serve sentence
New York Times: Aerial War Over Ukraine Heats Up As Russia Hammers Cities And Vital Services
Breaking Defense: Made to Take on Russia, Swedish Gripen Fighter Jets Should Go to Ukraine: Report
Breaking Defense: LaPlante Pokes Silicon Valley ‘Tech Bros,’ Calls For Increased Munitions Production For Ukraine
Defense News: Zhuhai Airshow Display Reveals Info on China’s J-20, J-16 Inventory
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Maintenance Procedure Likely Led to Cracked C-130H Propellers, AMC Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Shyu Says Wargames Define R&D Investment; New NDS Tech Document Coming
Air & Space Forces Magazine: STARCOM to Expand Space Training Exercises in Coming Months
19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Military Is In Decline While China Grows More Powerful
19fortyfive.com: Meet Russia’s Newest Borei-A Class Ballistic Missile ‘Stealth’ Submarine
19fortyfive.com: FH-97A: China’s New ‘Loyal Wingman’ Looks Like a Stealth Fighter
19fortyfive.com: 77,000 Russians Dead: Putin Has No Real Plan to Win in Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: How Does North Korea Have Underground Air Bases?
19fortyfive.com: Did China Stop Russia From Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?
19fortyfive.com: Putin Is Smiling: Is America Getting Tired of the Ukraine War?
The Cipher Brief: Is China’s Xi Jinping a Responsible Stakeholder?
The Cipher Brief: Elections Protect a Messy, But Better Alternative
The Cipher Brief: The Clear and Present Danger Trap
The Cipher Brief: Tech Antitrust Bill Could Expose the Cloud to Foreign Threats
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 9
8 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association and Naval Intelligence Professionals Navy Information Warfare Industry Day forum, with Vice Adm. Jeff Trussler, deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare; Scott Bray, deputy director of naval intelligence and director of the Naval Intelligence Activity; Vice Adm. Scott Conn, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities in the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations; Rear Adm. John Okon, director of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations’s Warfare Integration Directorate; Kelly McCool, director of the Navy Digital Warfare Office; Rear Adm. Fred Pyle, director of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations’s Surface Warfare Division; Sandy Brown, assistant deputy director of the Office of Naval Intelligence and deputy director of the Naval Intelligence Activity; Vice Adm. Kelly Aeschbach, commander of Naval Information Forces; Vice Adm. Craig Clapperton, commander of the U.S. Fleet Cyber Command; and Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence and director of the National Maritime Intelligence Integration Office https://www.afcea.org/navy-information-warfare-industry-day
8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: ”U.S.-China Relations After the Midterms,” with Da Wei, director of Tsinghua University’s Center for International Strategy and Security; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Chong Ja Ian, nonresident scholar at Carnegie China; and Paul Haenle, visiting research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/11/09/carnegie-china-global-dialogue
8:15 a.m. 14750 Conference Center Dr., Chantilly, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Belvoir “Industry Days” forum, with Army Maj. Gen. Anthony Potts, program executive officer for command, control, and communications; Carlen Capenos, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency’s Office of Small Business Programs; and Valerie Oliver, deputy director of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’s Office of Small Business https://www.fbcinc.com/e/AFCEABelvoir/attendeereg.aspx
9 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Xi’s Sweep: Beyond China’s 20th Party Congress,” with panel discussions on “Chinese Domestic Politics” and “China’s Foreign Policy” https://www.brookings.edu/events/xis-sweep
9 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd., McLean, Virginia — Government Executive Media Group and Washington Technology Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification 2.0 Ecosystem Summit, with Kelley Kiernan, chief technology officer of the Navy Small Business Innovation Research/Small Business Technology Transfer program, and Kimberly Buehler, director for the Office of Small Business Programs at the Army https://events.bizzabo.com/washtechCMMC/home
10 a.m. 1700 Tysons Blvd., McLean, Virginia — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “What China’s Strategic Breakout Means for the U.S,” with Brad Roberts, former deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear and missile defense policy, and Franklin Miller, principal at the Scowcroft Group and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/what-chinas-strategic-breakout-means-the-us
4:30 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu Contact: Thom Shanker [email protected]
THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 10
10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “The U.S.-Saudi Rift: Economic Disagreement or Geopolitical Realignment?” with Hala Aldosari, Saudi scholar and activist; Giorgio Cafiero, founder and CEO of Gulf States Analytics; Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy; Manal Shehabi, academic visitor at the University of Oxford’s St. Antony’s College; and Annelle Sheline, research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Middle East Program https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Saudi Arabia and Oil: Between the U.S. and Russia,” with Guy Laron, senior lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Bessma Momani, professor of political science at the University of Waterloo; and Stephen Kalin, reporter at the Wall Street Journal https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/saudi-arabia-and-oil
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft webinar: “How Will Midterm Outcomes Affect U.S. Policy on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine?” with George Beebe, director, grand strategy, Quincy Institute; Rachel Bovard, senior director of policy, Conservative Partnership Institute; Jacob Heilbrunn, editor, the National Interest; and Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, senior adviser, Quincy Institute https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. 14th St. and F St. N.W. — National Press Club’s American Legion Post 20 meeting with a discussion: on “The war in Ukraine and efforts to get accurate information into Ukraine and Russia,” with Voice of America Chief National Correspondent Steve Herman https://www.press.org/newsroom https://us02web.zoom.us
FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 11
9 a.m. World War II Memorial, 1750 Independence Ave. — Friends of the National World War II Memorial and the National Park Service wreath-laying ceremony “to honor the more than 16 million men and women who served with the U.S. Armed Forces during World War II” and “in remembrance of the more than 400,000 Americans and 60 million people killed worldwide during the deadliest military conflict in human history.” Livestream at https://www.facebook.com/WWIIMemorialFriends
MONDAY | NOVEMBER 14
10 a.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Ukraine and the Future of Air Warfare,” with Margarita Konaev, deputy director of analysis and research fellow, Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology; Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program and director, Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Bendett, adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs Center; and Kelly Grieco, senior fellow, Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/ukraine-and-the-future-of-air-warfare
2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. — Brookings Institution event: “U.S. defense innovation and great power deterrence,” with Chris Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril Industries; David Ochmanek, senior defense analyst, Rand Corporation; Caitlin Talmadge, nonresident senior fellow, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings; and moderated by Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow, Brookings https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
7 p.m. — Stimson Center webinar: “Military Operations Other Than War in China’s Foreign Policy,” with Courtney Fung, associate professor, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University; Andrea Ghiselli, assistant professor, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University; and Jesse Marks, nonresident fellow, China Program, Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/military-operations-other-than-war
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“A deal with Putin is a one-way ticket to a world where international law is no longer valid, where law is determined by force, and force is nuclear weapons. And why pay such a price if Putin does not give up the goal of destroying us?”
Mykhailo Podolyak, senior adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica
