Ever since the coronavirus took the shine off the economy, President Trump’s reelection campaign has struggled to come up with a consistent message to replace the themes of relative peace and strong prosperity that once figured to be the centerpiece of his case for a second term.
Republican insiders are looking for Team Trump to zero in on a rationale for the president’s reelection as presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead in national and battleground state polls grows. Trump currently trails Biden by 8 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
“Until three months ago, he had a lot of good news,” said veteran GOP communications specialist Doug Heye. The pandemic, the resulting economic slowdown, and now the civil unrest following George Floyd’s death have since dominated the headlines as the general election campaign approaches.
“A message only works if it is credible. Given the path of the administration over the past few years, I do not think they have considerable message flexibility,” said Republican strategist Christian Ferry. “The economy was the best talking point they had, and it is gone. Therefore, the message of economic recovery makes sense to me, but the key question is whether or not the campaign and the president will stay disciplined with it.”
Message discipline has never been one of Trump’s strengths. This week, the Trump campaign opened with coordinated attacks tying Biden to the “defund the police” movement. “As the protesters like to say, silence is agreement,” said Trump 2020 communications director Tim Murtaugh. “By his silence, Joe Biden is endorsing defunding the police.”
Biden’s campaign responded by finally disavowing the idea. Trump World then challenged the candidate himself to do so in his own words. That was followed by White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany opening the briefing talking about the “transition to greatness” sparked by last week’s much-better-than-expected jobs report. Much of Tuesday was consumed by a widely panned Trump tweet claiming a 75-year-old “Buffalo protester shoved by Police could be an ANTIFA provocateur.”
When the headlines were better, Trump still had difficulty staying on message. “Every first Friday except for one, the president has had a good or great jobs report,” Heye said. “That leads into the Sunday shows. Let Pelosi and Schumer say he shouldn’t get the credit. He’s going to win that argument.” Frequently, by Sunday, Washington — especially Trump — was already talking about something else.
Even amid a coronavirus-induced recession, Trump retains an advantage on the economy. In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, otherwise filled with bad news for the president, respondents picked Trump over Biden on “cutting the unemployment rate and getting people back to work” by 48% to 35%. They also favored Trump over Biden on “dealing with the economy,” 48% to 37%.
“Trump still has the opportunity to run on that,” said Heye. “If after everything that the country’s been through, if that last jobs report before the election, unemployment is at 10.5%, is that seen as a good number? If so, then his messaging takes care of itself.”
The Trump campaign will still have to focus its argument against Biden, a candidate key voting blocs such as senior citizens like a great deal more than they did Hillary Clinton. “Trump is remarkably stable. He’s existed in that band 40% to 45% approval,” said Republican strategist Scott Jennings. “Can they drag Biden down into that same zone and sully him up enough to make it competitive? They do have the chance to make him look extreme.”
But because Biden lacks Clinton’s baggage, despite his lengthy Washington career, they will have to home in on what makes him unacceptable on policy grounds. “If they’re going to prosecute a case against Biden, they need to prosecute it and not just react to everything,” Jennings said.
“I got ‘Low Energy Jeb’ immediately,” Heye said of one of Trump’s memorable nicknames for an opponent. “I don’t know what ‘Sleepy Joe’ is supposed to mean.”
“I think Trump has a major opportunity right now to get back some of those suburban female voters he lost in 2018,” said a GOP operative who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Their No. 1 issue is security and safety for their families, and these riots have got to be scaring the daylights out of them. Trump would be smart to address this in a rational manner and not continue to scream at his 30% base.”
“The problem is that he’s so undisciplined. He can’t stay on topic or address anyone who isn’t a 100% supporter,” the operative continued.
Trump must also battle “general fatigue” with the drama surrounding his administration, along with the recent riots and the coronavirus. “People are looking for a return to normal as it existed to some degree before the virus. All the normal stuff you do and you look forward to has been upended,” Jennings said. “Make America normal again.”
