Business groups are using the weeklong congressional recess to begin a lobbying push to urge the Trump administration not to withdraw from the important, but lesser-known, Kigali climate change agreement, playing up its economic benefits in a major report.
The push is being led by groups representing air-conditioning and home-heating giants Honeywell and Carrier, which want President Trump and Congress to support the Kigali Amendment to the three-decade-old Montreal Protocol.
The recent agreement reached in Kigali, Rwanda, looks to continue the goals set forth in the Montreal Protocol to protect the atmosphere’s ozone layer, but with a greenhouse-gas/global-warming twist. It looks to combat climate change by slowly reducing the use of certain types of refrigerants used in air conditioners blamed for raising the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere.
The Kigali deal was agreed to by the U.S. just months before Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election, and even though Trump has been clear about the Paris deal, the industry doesn’t want him to turn his sights on Kigali. Industry representatives say the deal is different from the Paris climate change agreement, primarily because it has a long track record of helping the industry transition to newer chemicals without harming manufacturing. It also has had consistent backing by Congress. And they don’t want that to change.
The air conditioning industry, represented by the Air-conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, and others, began the push Thursday with the release of a major report by JMS Consulting that lays out the economic case for Trump to stay in Kigali.
The report is the result of a recommendation made in February by David Banks, a former top White House adviser on climate change.
Banks had warned that the administration would require “really good economic information” before it makes a decision on the agreement.
“We understand there is broad industry support but we need to know how, in a concrete way, it benefits U.S. companies, preserves and creates U.S. jobs, and how it affects the trade balance,” Banks told a gathering at the Hudson Institute think tank.
Representatives for the industry sat down with the Washington Examiner to give an exclusive look at the economic report’s findings and the lobbying effort that will follow.
The report shows demand for air-conditioning products doubling in the next 10 years to more than $1 trillion, which U.S. companies don’t want to be shut out of. If the U.S. pulls out the Kigali climate deal, it would mean losing a big share of the demand to China and other competitors, according to the officials.
The market growth will come from developing nations such as Brazil, India, and others transitioning to refrigerants that are more ozone- and climate-friendly. The U.S. industry has “traditionally led these transitions” to new refrigerants “and it is vital they lead the [latest] transition,” according to a presentation on the report.
Decisions on how the industry is to meet that new demand need to occur soon, according to the officials. “Commercialization of next generation technology is essential at this point in the Montreal Protocol transition,” the presentation reads. “Typical design cycle for the industry is 5-10 years,” but decisions are “being made now.”
The report also discusses the impact on jobs. Simply put: Not moving in line with Kigali will cost jobs.
“Without Kigali,” the number of industry jobs stay well below 200,000. “With Kigali,” jobs rise to well over 220,000. That includes 33,000 new manufacturing jobs building the new products required under Kigali.
“With Kigali, U.S. exports will outperform, increasing U.S. share of global market” from 7.2 percent to 9.0 percent. Without the agreement, the U.S. export market will shrink, dwindling to just 6.2 percent, according to the report.
The industry groups have been making the rounds on Capitol Hill, since Congress will have to vote on the Kigali Amendment. They say they have support from the Republican leadership for staying in the accord.
The White House, with its turnover, may be a little more challenging, as energy advisers Banks and Mike Catanzaro have left. But that goes with the territory, the officials told the Washington Examiner.
Once the report is released, other industry groups, such as the Chamber of Commerce, will be issuing public support for the analysis and for staying in the Kigali agreement, the industry officials said.
