Hours after the failed Nov. 7 assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kadhimi, pro-Iran militias in Iraq claimed responsibility but denied that Tehran had ordered the attack. Not only was Tehran kept in the dark, they insisted, but its deployment of a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander to Baghdad after the failed attempt was to urge calm.

However, judging by how Tehran organizes its proxies, their use of explosive drones, Iraq’s political context, Iranian statements after the attack, and the history of pro-Iran militias around the region, there is little doubt that the assassination order came from Iran.