CARSON CITY, Nev. — Money talks in the Nevada Senate race, and Sen. Dean Heller is listening.
With a week standing between the GOP incumbent and Election Day, Nevada has become ground zero for Senate Democrats, with big money coming in for Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., and her push to unseat Heller next Tuesday. While the race is expected to become a nail-biter, the funds flowing into the state have made the final week a tense one for Heller, who believes the money factor is the one thing that could keep him from winning a second term.
“It would be the only reason,” Heller said during Nevada Day celebrations on Saturday. “Republicans better figure this out real quick because there’s only a few of us who can win and be outspent 3-1. There’s only a few of us.”
In the first two-and-a-half weeks of October, Rosen’s campaign raked in $5.1 million — $300,000 per day between Oct. 1-17 — while Heller’s camp took in $1.4 million. Additionally, Rosen’s campaign has flooded the airwaves statewide and is outspending Heller there by a 4-1 margin, pouring in $2.9 million per week compared to only $770,000 by Heller. The pace is expected to continue through election day.
“They’re raising a boatload of money,” Heller said. “All Republicans are facing the green wave.”
“We raise $1 million a week. She raises $1 million a day,” he says, pointing to the fundraising disparity. “And they’re not raising money for her, they’re raising money for this race. It has nothing to do with her. Look at what happened in North Dakota with Heidi [Heitkamp] … It’s definitely a green wave.”
[Opinion: The final countdown to the 2018 midterm election]
According to Rosen’s campaign, their per-day contributions have remained at a clip of about $300,000 since their pre-election FEC report was turned in. Nevadans also can’t help but notice the ads. One announcer along the parade route commented that he’d seen Heller “more this week than I’ve seen my daughters” thanks to the Democratic ads.
Nevertheless, Heller and allies of the incumbent Republican remain confident in his chances to pull out a second straight tough contest after defeating former Rep. Shelley Berkley by less than 2 points in 2012 when President Barack Obama was on the ballot. They argue that Heller has remained in margin-of-error race despite being outspent nearly 3-1.
“The fact that all the polls that I have seen and all of the anecdotal evidence I’ve read and heard, the race is still a dead heat despite the disparity in fundraising,” said Greg Ferraro, a Nevada-based GOP strategist and adviser to Gov. Brian Sandoval. “That has to tell you something. If you pause and break that down … it tells you people are still holding in there for Heller despite the fact his message doesn’t have the same amount of velocity behind it.”
Heller’s remarks came during an interview Saturday at the Nevada Day Parade, a celebration of Nevada’s statehood, which attracted politicos of all kinds, Headlined by Heller and Rosen, others in attendance were Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, the GOP nominee for governor, Steve Sisolak, the Democratic nominee.
“It helps me get my message out. Just spread it out across more platforms to be sure that we’re talking to as many Nevadans as we can,” Rosen said of her ongoing fundraising push, which she says has come in the form of 400,000 contributions that average less than $50. “Honestly, I have a grassroots campaign. What it really shows is enthusiasm. That people understand that Nevada is a place that can flip. They want a check and balance on this president.”
Among those who also appeared in the state capitol city Saturday was Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who campaigned and fundraised for Rosen while in town. He argued the small donors Rosen pointed to is their only hope to keep pace with the GOP.
“That’s our only chance,” Durbin said. “We have some big-money contributors, but not enough, and not in the amounts that Sheldon Adelson and the Koch brothers and the others put into the race, so we’re going to the grassroots.
“I happen to think it’s more credible money,” he added. “These are not only contributors, but they’re voters. When you send your candidate a check, you’re investing.”
The money pouring into the state has been eye-popping, including from outside groups. The Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has spent nearly $14 million against Rosen, while the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic outside group, has spent over $12 million of its own.
Top surrogates have also come rushing into the state in recent weeks to help each side. President Trump campaigned in rural Elko over a week ago, with Vice President Mike Pence stopping in both Las Vegas and Carson City for Nevada Day over the weekend. As for Rosen, former President Barack Obama campaigned for her in Las Vegas last week — a key area for Democrats.
While public polls show Heller with an expanding lead, no one connected to either campaign believes it’s more than a margin-of-error contest. Additionally, early voting in the state has remained close, although Democrats hold a slim edge, including in Washoe County, a key battleground, where Saturday’s parade was held.
Heller, who grew up in Carson City, has historically run up the score in Washoe County en route to victory, including in 2012. Appearing in nearby Carson City County Saturday for parade day, he rode alongside his wife on horseback, a trademark of his.
Rosen and many parade attendees made note of two Heller volunteers who walked behind the senator and police. One carried a shovel, the other a rolling trash can to pick up horse droppings along the way.
“He likes to ride a horse. Lovely,” Rosen said with a chuckle. “It’s harder to talk to people when you’re on a horse. I’m down with the people.”
“And he left a big mess following him,” Rosen said. “That’s the mess he’s left the last so-many years in Washington, and I’ll just leave it at that because you know what those horses leave behind.”
The transportation along the parade route did not go swimmingly for Rosen either as the blue Oldsmobile Cutlass she rode in for part of the parade broke down midway through, forcing volunteers to push the car along.
“Don’t miss that irony,” Heller said.
