Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have emerged as the two most sought-after votes in the Senate, shoring up their centrist credentials at home and their power in Washington at a time when President Joe Biden is urgently seeking to pass his legislative agenda before the calendar switches to an election year.
The West Virginian and Arizonan are the least liberal Democrats in a 50-50 Senate, controlled by their party only because of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. That makes them a force to be reckoned with even if the Senate were to eliminate the filibuster — a procedural move they have both steadfastly opposed.
Manchin and Sinema have so far used their leverage judiciously, mostly supporting Biden’s executive and judicial branch nominees — though Manchin’s opposition effectively torpedoed Neera Tanden’s nomination to run the Office of Management and Budget — and casting the deciding vote for the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan.”
But as congressional Democrats contemplate additional massive spending bills and controversial election reform legislation, with bipartisan infrastructure talks between the White House and Senate Republicans seemingly stalled, the potential for the pair to become an obstacle to their party’s goals has grown. Even their opposition to nuking the filibuster, which effectively creates a 60-vote threshold for most legislation in the Senate, limits Democrats’ options. The two already played a key role in defeating an increase in the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour earlier this year.
REPUBLICANS ARE OUT OF THE GATE EARLY FOR 2024
The Left doesn’t like it one bit.
One liberal dark money group has gone up on the air with an advertising campaign pressuring Manchin and Sinema on the Democrats’ For the People Act, an elections bill seeking to expand voting rights. Another organization is musing publicly about primary challenges, though neither is up for reelection until 2024.
Manchin represents an increasingly conservative state that twice went for former President Donald Trump by 40 points and hasn’t voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1996. Sinema won a competitive race in the home state of Barry Goldwater, which Trump won in 2016 and Biden only narrowly carried last year, becoming the first Democratic presidential nominee to do so since 1996.
“The only thing I have to say to any Democrat who thinks they can get a more progressive senator elected from either of those states is, ‘Good luck,’” said a Democratic strategist. “And once the West Virginia seat goes, it could be decades before we get it back. Arizona, maybe we’d get another chance.”
Even Biden has called out Manchin and Sinema, though not by name, as “two members of the Senate who vote more with my Republican friends.” (Both have voted with Biden and their Democratic colleagues a majority of the time.) But the former 36-year senator has recognized the need to keep the two centrists in the fold.
“I will say the president considers Sen. Manchin a friend,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday. “He knows that they may disagree on some issues, as they do on this particular piece of legislation. He’s going to continue to work with him, reach out to him, engage with him directly and through his staff on how we can work together moving forward.”
She was similarly conciliatory earlier this year after Vice President Kamala Harris gave a West Virginia media interview that an irritated Manchin believed was meant to pressure him.
Biden has stressed that both Manchin and Sinema are necessary for passing an infrastructure bill, with the White House effectively conceding Tuesday they may have better luck winning Republican votes than the president.
“The President also spoke with Senators Sinema, Cassidy, and Manchin today,” Psaki said in a statement. “He urged them to continue their work with other Democrats and Republicans to develop a bipartisan proposal that he hopes will be more responsive to the country’s pressing infrastructure needs.”
Manchin and Sinema both represent states where perceived willingness to work with Republicans is a net positive.
“She has done everything right,” a Republican strategist in Arizona said of Sinema.
They also maximize their Washington influence as the deciding votes for legislation. Preserving the filibuster allows both Democrats to maintain their sway if the majority expands beyond the current 50-50 stalemate.
That’s why they have both become steadfast, with Manchin coming out against the For the People Act even as some on the Left make racially charged criticisms of his position and Sinema defending the filibuster while appearing alongside Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a member of the Republican leadership team.
The two are also a safety valve for Democrats reluctant to go along with filibuster reform or other liberal policy priorities but do not wish to speak out. For example, a cloture vote revealed they weren’t the party’s only holdouts on the $15 an hour minimum wage.
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Nevertheless, Democrats have quite a bit to get done before the midterm elections and a short time to do it. If they lose their slender majorities, legislating will be even more difficult. Biden is acutely aware he needs to have something to show liberal voters.
“From day one, the president has been clear that he has two red lines: he will not raise taxes on Americans who make under $400,000, and he will not accept inaction as the outcome,” Psaki said. “The president is committed to moving his economic legislation through Congress this summer and is pursuing multiple paths to get this done.”
