If Democrats are worried about pitting states against one another over ventilators and N95 masks, they ought to abandon the push for a quick, national switch to vote-by-mail elections for 2020, lest ballots become as scarce as masks and ventilators.
As states examine this possibility and Congress considers nudging them along (or even forcing participation in statewide vote-by-mail), there are two angles to consider: the merit of vote-by-mail systems and speedy implementation to address COVID-19 fears.
Today, only five states have vote-by-mail systems. In 2013, my state of Colorado became the third to make the switch. I was deeply skeptical at first, but three off-year elections, two midterms, and one presidential election later, I’m less cynical.
Vote-by-mail elections are more convenient and reduce costs. The process is straightforward and consistent. Vote-by-mail can still provide voters with the chance to drop their ballots in a drop-off location or to fill a ballot out at a voting precinct. Campaigns can allocate resources more wisely by removing voters from lists after their ballots have been cast. Finally, it is still the case that large swaths of voters (including me) wait until Election Day to drop our ballots.
On the other hand, vote-by-mail is far from perfect. Evidence is scant that voter turnout is necessarily and noticeably higher than in-person voting. States such as Colorado have ID requirements that are insufficient, particularly with the availability of same-day registration. Vote centers in rural and mountainous areas may run into bandwidth and connectivity issues. Ballot harvesting can be perilous for election integrity.
On balance, vote-by-mail can be good when done right. Colorado, for example, has held vote-by-mail elections where Republicans performed well and ones where Democrats did well. Compared to the national mood and voter registration numbers, the voting model doesn’t really change outcomes. Additionally, election experts differ on whether in-person voting or vote-by-mail leads to more voter fraud.
Yet even if vote-by-mail is generally positive, that doesn’t mean 2020 is the year for nationwide expansion.
Democrats are fooling themselves if they think state systems can be completely revamped in a matter of months. As former Colorado Secretary of State Wayne Williams pointed out on my web show recently, it took the state a decade to get ready for vote-by-mail elections. Likewise, for Oregon and Washington. Admittedly, those three states were pioneers, and others would follow their lead. But the inherent complexities are inescapable.
For instance, electronic poll books and accurate databases must be properly generated with verifiable voter signatures. Voting centers and ballot counting locations need to have strong broadband connectivity and a system that can handle the load. Election judges must be trained and thoroughly understand how to adapt to a new system. Moreover, a one-size-fits-all approach is doomed to fail. Each state has unique circumstances that must be reflected in the process.
As Matt Crane, former clerk of Arapahoe County, Colorado, observed: “States that are currently below 20% mail will have a very challenging time duplicating the Colorado model in six months. However, there’s a lot they can do to encourage more absentee voting and remove barriers to that process. It’s unfortunate it’s taken an emergency to get some states to move on this.”
Election integrity is also critical. While fraud generally isn’t more likely under vote-by-mail, it would almost certainly be under rushed vote-by-mail. States will probably be incapable of swiftly and effectively establishing massive, reliable databases where both voter IDs and signatures can be cross-referenced easily and efficiently. The number of provisional ballots required could be astronomical, likely contributing to nationwide lawsuits that would make hanging chads blush.
Finally, former Colorado Deputy Secretary of State Suzanne Staiert notes that mail ballot printers are “single points of failure” with too few printers. “We had problems every year … For example, in 2016, we had 1.1 million ballots held in a printer dispute over a die cutter. One printer literally locked out another printer.”
Vote-by-mail itself may be a good idea, but not if it’s rushed. If the entire country made the switch for November 2020, as Democrats insist, printers will become the new ventilators, electoral confidence will crater, and Putin will smile.
Jimmy Sengenberger is the host of Jimmy at the Crossroads, a webshow in partnership with the Washington Examiner that focuses on the intersection of politics and economics, as well as The Jimmy Sengenberger Show on Denver’s News/Talk 710 KNUS.
