US HAS NO ANSWER, YET: Anxious NATO allies, who have twice as many troops in Afghanistan as the United States, are looking for a sign from the Biden administration about whether it will pull the plug on the NATO-led mission to meet a looming May 1 withdrawal deadline.
All indications are they won’t get an answer from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during this week’s virtual meeting of allied defense ministers, which starts tomorrow. “He’s already spoken to many of them individually. He’ll have a chance now to speak to them more collectively,” says Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, who indicated Friday that Austin still hasn’t made a recommendation to President Biden. “That discussion will clearly help inform his thinking and the sort of advice that he will be expected to give to the commander in chief.”
Under an agreement negotiated a year ago with the Taliban during the Trump administration, all U.S. troops, and consequently all NATO and coalition forces, are to leave the country in return for the Taliban reducing violence, breaking ties with terrorist groups, and negotiating a peace deal with the U.S.-backed Afghan government in good faith.
HANDWRITING ON THE WALL: At a news conference in Brussels yesterday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg repeatedly said he would not “preempt” the decision of the NATO ministers but made it clear that the Taliban have so far failed to live up to their side of the bargain.
“Taliban is responsible for violence. We see that there is still a need for Taliban to do more when it comes to delivering on their commitments,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “Taliban has to reduce violence. They have to negotiate in good faith. And they have to respect the promise they made in the agreement to not provide any kind of support to terrorist groups that are planning attacks on our countries.”
“We need to find the right balance between making sure that we do not stay longer than necessary, but at the same time that we don’t leave too early, because we should not end up in a situation where Afghanistan, again, becomes a platform, a safe haven for international terrorists, which is actually the reason why we went in there,” Stoltenberg said. “So our presence is conditions-based. While no ally wants to stay in Afghanistan longer than necessary, we will not leave before the time is right.”
RUNNING OUT OF TIME: Stoltenberg put the number of troops in the NATO mission advising and assisting Afghan forces at 10,000. Two weeks ago, U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie said the number of NATO and partner troops from 36 nations was closer to 5,000, with the 2,500 remaining U.S. troops primarily focused on counterterrorism efforts against al Qaeda and ISIS-K.
Whatever the exact number, withdrawing that many troops along with their equipment in just two and half months would be a huge logistical challenge and, therefore, is increasingly unlikely if a decision is not made this week.
THE TALIBAN SMELL VICTORY: The Taliban have been moving aggressively to improve their military position in advance of the U.S. and NATO withdrawal, in what appears to be an effort to be able to strangle key cities, including the capital Kabul and the strategic economic centers of Kunduz, in the north, and Kandahar, in the south, according to a report in the New York Times.
The New York Times neatly sums up the conundrum this way:
“If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the Afghan government in the ongoing peace negotiations. But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would most likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void, which could lead to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops, and potentially draw the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.”
That Feb. 3 Afghanistan Study Group report not only recommended extending the deadline for a U.S. withdrawal but also restoring the 2,000 troops President Donald Trump withdrew against the advice of his commanders.
“A precipitous U.S. withdrawal is likely to exacerbate the conflict, provoking a wider civil war. Expert consultations indicated that around 4,500 troops are required to secure U.S. interests under current conditions and at an acceptable level of risk,” the report concluded.
RELATED: From the Washington Examiner magazine: Afghanistan is Biden’s war now, and he’s in a box
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HAPPENING TODAY: Pentagon press secretary John Kirby briefs reporters at the Pentagon Briefing Room at 2:30 p.m. With the Monday holiday, Kirby plans to brief on camera on Tuesday and Thursday, with an off-camera gaggle tomorrow.
THE BEAST IS BACK! Reporters on Friday couldn’t help but notice that the sleek, skinny lecterns that were part of the Pentagon briefing room makeover have gone the way of skinny jeans — no longer in vogue.
Instead, spokesman Kirby was standing behind the hulking motorized lectern that he used when he was last at the Pentagon five years ago. Kirby tells Daily on Defense that he requested the old lectern, nicknamed “the Beast,” be returned because the skinny stands had no room for his briefing book, notepad, and list of reporters he has to call on, who are standing by on the phone.
Kirby’s request sent Tom Masten, who runs the Pentagon briefing room, down to the Pentagon visitor center (which is closed during the COVID pandemic) to retrieve “the Beast,” where it had been relegated to a mock-up of the briefing room podium, serving as a backdrop for tourists’ photos. The original mock lectern had fallen into disrepair.
“The Beast is back. I love the Beast,” Kirby told the Washington Examiner. But don’t worry, the new lecterns are waiting in the wings and will likely reappear when Secretary Austin or other officials brief reporters.
IRAQ ATTACK: A rocket attack in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil has killed a foreign civilian contractor and wounded nine others, including one U.S. military member. Four American contractors and one U.S. service member are being checked for possible concussions, according to a tweet from Army Col. Wayne Marotto, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad.
The Kurdistan Regional Government is investigating the attack, which targeted the Erbil airport and the surrounding neighborhood and “employed the same method and technique used in a previous assault,” according to a statement from the Interior Ministry.
“Counterterrorism, security, and police units immediately launched an investigation, in coordination with coalition forces, and located the vehicle from which the rockets were fired,” the statement said. “Ongoing investigations will definitively confirm who are the culprits behind the attack, and we assure the people of Erbil and the Kurdistan Region that all those involved will be held accountable and brought to justice.”
US ‘OUTRAGED’: “We are outraged by today’s rocket attack in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement last night.
“I have reached out to Kurdistan Regional Government Prime Minister Masrour Barzani to discuss the incident and to pledge our support for all efforts to investigate and hold accountable those responsible,” Blinken said. “We express our condolences to the loved ones of the civilian contractor killed in this attack, and to the innocent Iraqi people and their families who are suffering these ruthless acts of violence.”
In December, after a rocket attack on Baghdad’s Green Zone, President Donald Trump blamed Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and threatened Tehran with immediate retaliation. “Some friendly health advice to Iran: If one American is killed, I will hold Iran responsible. Think it over,” Trump tweeted.
GETTING PAST THE 2% SOLUTION: At his news conference yesterday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg made no secret that he views the Biden administration as far more friendly to the alliance than Trump, who was constantly berating America’s closest allies for failing to meet a goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024.
“Over the last four years, we had some difficult discussions inside NATO, but now we look to the future,” Stoltenberg said. “And the future is that we now have an administration in the United States, in Washington, which is strongly committed to the transatlantic bond, to NATO, to Europe and North America working together.”
Stoltenberg also indicated that he agrees with countries such as Canada and Germany, which don’t meet the 2% goal but who contribute in other more tangible ways, that the 2% benchmark may be the wrong metric.
“A fair burden-sharing is not only about spending, it’s also about contributions,” Stoltenberg said. “And we see how Canada contributes, for instance, to our collective defense in Europe. Canada leads one of the battlegroups, the combat-ready battlegroups we have deployed in the Baltic countries.”
Currently, whichever country contributes forces for a NATO mission also fully covers the cost of the contribution. “If you send some troops to the NATO battlegroup in Lithuania, as Norway does, then Norway pays for that. I think that we should change that,” Stoltenberg said, arguing the cost should be shared across the alliance as a matter of fairness.
“If we have NATO funding to some of these activities: battlegroups, exercises, air policing — then we’ll also incentivize allies to provide more of these capabilities,” he said.
THE RENAMING PROJECT: The Pentagon and Congress have settled on the eight people who will serve on the congressionally mandated commission to rename U.S. military bases and other DOD entities that commemorate the Confederate States of America.
The commission is composed of four appointments by the defense secretary, two by the chairmen of the House and Senate Armed Services Committee, and two by the ranking members.
- Secretary Austin selected retired Adm. Michelle Howard, former vice chief of naval operations; retired Gen. Bob Neller, former Marine Corps commandant; Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute; and retired Brig. Gen. Ty Seidule, emeritus professor of history, U.S. Military Academy.
- SASC Chairman Jack Reed selected retired Army Lt. Gen. Thomas Bostick, the first Black graduate of West Point.
- HASC Chairman Adam Smith selected Lonnie Bunch, the 14th secretary of the Smithsonian.
- SASC ranking member Jim Inhofe selected Jerry Buchanan, a private business owner and civic leader in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
- HASC ranking member Mike Rogers selected Rep. Austin Scott, who represents Georgia’s 8th Congressional District.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Pelosi pushes for 9/11-type commission on Capitol riots as GOP presses her for answers
Washington Examiner: Space Force hampered by lawmakers’ restrictions even as Biden embraces Trump’s brainchild
Washington Examiner: Biden DOJ appeals British ruling in seeking extradition of Julian Assange
Washington Examiner: Europeans rebuke Iran for taking ‘key step’ to build nuclear weapon
Washington Examiner: Biden orders review aimed at closing Guantanamo Bay terrorist detention facility
New York Times: The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink
Reuters: In NATO Debut, Biden’s Pentagon Aims To Rebuild Trust Damaged By Trump
Washington Post: Turkey accuses U.S. of supporting Kurdish militants after 13 Turkish hostages are killed
Talk Media News: Despite a plate full of troubles near and far, Austin’s first big battle is an old nemesis: the budget
Task & Purpose: Former Marine Scout Sniper Accused Of Breaching The Capitol During The Jan. 6 Insurrection
Defense News: Can The Biden Administration Break The Cycle Of Marathon Naval Deployments To The Mideast?
USNI News: Navy: 70% Sailors Who Are Offered COVID Vaccine Have Accepted, As Service Campaigns for More Vaccinations
USNI News: Navy Will Vaccinate 5,000 Eisenhower Strike Group Sailors Just Days Ahead of Planned Deployment
Washington Post: Aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has more coronavirus cases, Navy says
AP: Pentagon Approves 20 More COVID-19 Vaccination Teams
Virginian Pilot: Italian Aircraft Carrier Comes To Norfolk To Train For New F-35B Aircraft
Reuters: Iran Says U.S. Move To Seize Oil Shipment Is ‘Act Of Piracy’
Air Force Magazine: Americans and Israelis Team Up for Missile Defense Practice
Yonhap: S. Korea Keen On Restoring Ties With Japan Amid U.S. Calls For Trilateral Tie-Up
AP: Philippines Demands More U.S. Security Aid To Retain Pact
Reuters: South Korea investigating North Korean man who crossed armed border
NPR: Female Marines Begin Basic Training In San Diego
USNI News: Navy, Lawmaker Split Over Timeline to Renovate Public Repair Yards
Task & Purpose: The Marine Corps’s New Battlewagon Is A Better Tank-Killer Than The Service’s Tanks, General Says
Forbes: The Five Most Important Facts About The F-35 Fighter
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar on a new report, “Iraq: A Road Map for Recovery,” with author C. Anthony Pfaff, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/iraq
12 p.m. — Council on Foreign Relations virtual book discussion on “The Daughters of Kobani: A Story of Rebellion, Courage and Justice,” with author Gayle Tzemach Lemmon, CFR adjunct senior fellow for women and foreign policy; and James Lindsay, CFR senior vice president, studies director and chair. Open only to active members of the media.
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion on “One Belt One Road: Chinese Power Meets the World,” with author Eyck Freymann; Nadia Schadlow, senior fellow at Hudson; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. — House Appropriations Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of Military Privatized Housing,” with Paul Cramer, principal deputy assistant Defense for sustainment (installations); and Elizabeth Field, director for defense capabilities and management in the Government Accountability Office. http://appropriations.house.gov
2 p.m. — Air Force Association Mitchell Institute Aerospace Nation event with Lt. Gen. James Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org
2:30 p.m. Pentagon, Briefing Room 2D972 — Defense Department Press Secretary John Kirby briefs reporters. Livestream at https://www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/
2:30 p.m. — Space Foundation Space Symposium 365 virtual event with Derek Tournear, director Space Development Agency. https://spacesymposium365.org/
9 p.m. — President Biden travels to Milwaukee, Wisc. for a live town hall hosted by CNN to take questions directly from the American people on issues such as COVID and the economy. https://www.cnn.com
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 17
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Update on the Department of Defense’s Evolving Roles and Mission in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic,” with testimony from Robert Salesses, performing the duties of assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security; Air Force Maj. Gen. Jeff Taliaferro, vice director for operations, Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Air Force Maj. Gen. Steven Nordhaus, director of operations, National Guard Bureau.
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Building an Army Ready for Great Power Competition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. https://www.heritage.org/events
11 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “What Will Biden Do About North Korea?” with Joel Wit, senior fellow at the Stimson Center; Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow at CEIP; and Aaron David Miller, senior fellow at CEIP. https://carnegieendowment.org
11 a.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual book discussion: “The Cyberweapons Arms Race,” with Nicole Perlroth, cybersecurity journalist for The New York Times, author of This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Washington Space Business Roundtable webinar: “U.S. Space Command: Successes, Challenges and How the Commercial Space Industry Can Play its Part in Advancing its Critical Mission,” with Army Gen. James Dickinson, commander of U.S. Space Command.https://www.wsbr.org/events/virtual-program
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Women in Afghanistan and the Role of U.S. Support,” with State Department Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John Sopko; Kate Bateman, gender project lead in the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction’s Lessons Learned Program; Belqis Barrai, independent consultant; Pashtana Durrani, founder and executive director of LEARN; Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Brookings Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; and John Allen, president of Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events
4 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversation with Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/
7:30 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program webinar: “Assessing the Alliance: What Lies Ahead for the Korean Peninsula?” with former Republic of Korea Ambassador to the United States Ahn Ho-Young, president of the University of North Korean Studies; former Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif., director, president and CEO of WWC; Abraham Denmark, director of the WWC Asia Program; and Jean Lee, director of the WWC Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 18
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar on Korea and China, with Chung Jae Ho, professor and director of the Seoul National University Program on U.S.-China Relations; former Republic of Korea Ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac, visiting professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy; Bonnie Glaser, director of the CSIS China Power Project; Victor Cha, Korea chair at CSIS; and Mark Lippert, nonresident senior adviser at CSIS. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event-korea-chair-capital-cable-20
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Middle East Program and Kennan Institute webinar, “Turkish-Russian Relations,” with former State Department Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS James Jeffrey; Habibe Ozdal, assistant professor of international relations at Istanbul Okan University; and Matthew Rojansky, director of the WWC Kennan Institute. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/global-perspectives-turkish-russian-relations
10 a.m. — Arab Center webinar “Yemen Policy Under Biden: Opportunities and Challenges,” with Abdulwahab Alkebsi, managing director for programs at the Center for International Private Enterprise; Nadwa Al-Dawsari, nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute; Sama’a Al-Hamdani, founder and executive director of the Yemen Cultural Institute; Nabeel Khoury, senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council; Summer Nasser, CEO of Yemen Aid; and Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
11 a.m. — Ronald Reagan Institute virtual event: “China, Targeted Decoupling, and the Economic Long War,” with Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark.; and Roger Zakheim, director Ronald Reagan Institute. https://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-institute/events
11:30 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Scott-St. Louis Chapter virtual discussion with Air Force Brig. Gen. Chad Raduege, director of cyberspace and information dominance and CIO of the Air Combat Command. https://scott.afceachapters.org/?even
12 p.m. — Center for the National Interest invites you to a Zoom webinar: “The Challenge of Iran,” with Gary Samore, professor, Brandeis University; Ellen Laipson, distinguished fellow, Stimson Center; Shai Feldman, president, Sapir Academic College; and Geoffrey Kemp, senior director for regional security, Center for the National Interest. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar: “Cyber Defenders: Securing the Supply Chain,” with Defense Undersecretary for Acquisition and Sustainment Katherine Arrington; and Principal Deputy Assistant VA Secretary for Information Dominic Cussat, deliver remarks. https://cyberdefenders.nextgov.com/register
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 19
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “The Future of U.S. Seapower: A View from Congress,” with Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee; Rep. Robert Wittman, R-Va., ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee’s Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee; and Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director of the Hudson Center for American Seapower. https://www.hudson.org/events/1920-virtual-event-the-future-of-u-s-seapower-a-view-from-congress22021
12:15 p.m — Howard University virtual symposium on “Re-Shaping U.S.-Africa Policy and the Role of HBCUs (historically black colleges and universities,” with U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations nominee Linda Thomas-Greenfield, former assistant secretary of State for African affairs. https://cfas.howard.edu/Symposium-US-Africa-HBCUs
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 23
7 p.m. — Stimson Center and Sejong Institute Zoom webinar: “US and ROK Approaches to North Korea: Challenges and Opportunities,” with Jungsup Kim, senior research fellow, Sejong Institute; Jihwan Hwang, professor, University of Seoul; Suzanne DiMaggio, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Jenny Town, fellow, Stimson Center and deputy director, 38 North; and moderated by Joel S. Wit, senior fellow, Stimson Center and Director, 38 North. https://www.stimson.org/event
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Afghanistan should never again serve as a haven for terrorists to attack our homelands. So, our presence is conditions-based. While no ally wants to stay in Afghanistan longer than necessary, we will not leave before the time is right.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, in a Monday news conference, signaling NATO troops may not withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of April as planned.
