House Republicans were scrambling on the eve of a high stakes hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee as the chaos engulfing Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court threatened to spill over and complicate efforts to salvage their vulnerable majority.
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The cascade of sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh from decades ago and President Trump’s aggressive defense of the federal appellate judge he nominated for the bench have consumed the news and captivated the nation, drowning out House Republicans laboring to survive the brewing Democratic storm by running on a growing economy and booming jobs market.
Unfolding weeks before critical midterm elections, the Senate confirmation process was poised to drive a deeper wedge between House Republicans and female voters in key suburban battlegrounds. Fresh public opinion polls showed doubts about Kavanaugh on the rise, a headache for Republicans possibly made worse by Trump’s suggestions that the alleged victims are lying.
“It’s very unhelpful. The noise never ends. It’s almost like we refuse to talk about the economy,” a Washington-based Republican strategist intimately involved in the party’s campaign to defend its 23-seat House majority said.
“Living in the suburbs, I don’t know a woman that doesn’t have a story of an attempted sexual assault, groping, something that made them feel uncomfortable or threatened,” added a Republican operative in the Midwest.
The Washington Examiner interviewed more than a half-dozen senior Republican strategists participating in operations to protect the party’s House and Senate majorities. All requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. Kavanaugh and his initial accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, were to testify on Capitol Hill Thursday morning in an open hearing, even as claims by other women continue to be investigated by the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Kavanaugh has steadfastly maintained his innocence and Trump charged during a Wednesday televised news conference from the United Nations that the accusations were part of a Democratic “con job” to derail the nomination. The president compared the situation to personal experience; he has long maintained that the more than a dozen women that have accused him of sexual misconduct were lying.
But the polling shows that Kavanaugh is losing the public relations battle.
Nationally, just 27 percent of women back his confirmation to the Supreme Court in a new survey from Morning Consult survey, a pollster than tends to give Trump higher marks than others. This has some Republican insiders fretting that the Kavanaugh episode could be disastrous for a House majority in jeopardy largely because disaffected women voters are driving traditionally conservative, suburban districts toward the Democrats.
“It’s definitely not good, although we don’t have much further to fall with suburban women anyhow,” a veteran Republican strategist said.
“This is yet another instance where the main topic of conversation and coverage is favorable to the Democrats, and that doesn’t help House Republicans with six weeks to go,” a Republican operative running a campaign in a targeted district added.
The nomination to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by Anthony Kennedy in July was originally seen by Republicans as a slam dunk political issue. It would galvanize the Republican base in a midterm election shaping up as a backlash against Trump and counter the Democrats’ edge in voter enthusiasm. That calculus was upended earlier in September when the first accusation of sexual misconduct surfaced. There have since been at least two others, although none have brought forth corroborating eye-witnesses.
That has led many Republican voters to see a Democratic witch hunt designed to sideline Kavanaugh and prevent the GOP from confirming a justice before November. Indeed, Senate Republicans run the risk of losing the Republican base in the midterm elections, and cashiering a majority presumed safe because of a favorable political map, if they abandon Kavanaugh, a factor weighing on their actions as his nomination has unraveled.
The Democrats have been open about the possibility that they might decline to seat any Trump nominee on the high court, similar to Republicans’ refusal to consider former President Barack Obama’s pick to succeed Justice Antonin Scalia after he died in 2016, saying the voters should decide the presidency and therefore which party they wanted to control the seat.
GOP insiders are hoping that the Democrats’ treatment of Kavanaugh and their perception that accusations against him lack all credibility will motivate Republican voters to show up on Election Day in high numbers, turning the tide of what could be a growing Democratic wave, just as the issue turned out to boost Republican support for Trump in his campaign against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Perhaps significantly, the Supreme Court has emerged as the top issue for voters in the midterm elections, according to a new Pew Research Center poll.
“Frankly, I think this may take voters who were apathetic in our party and make them full MAGA,” a Republican official said, referring to Trump’s slogan: “Make America Great Again.”
Added another: “It has likely galvanized the base Republican vote in a way they may not have been prior to this fight.”
