THE COVID-19 EFFECT: Defense Secretary Mark Esper is looking ahead to when the coronavirus pandemic is just a bad memory, and he sees a future in which the Pentagon will be forced to retire weapons systems and tactics developed over the past decades in order to fund a broad range of new technologies to prepare for an entirely different kind of warfare.
In a wide-ranging interview with Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, Esper said he fears the enormous economic damage wrought by the COVID-19 virus will make it impossible the fund the 3% to 5% annual growth in the defense budget needed to modernize and adapt the force to future threats.
“I am concerned, of course, that the massive infusion of dollars into the economy by the Congress and the executive branch, nearly $3 trillion, may throw us off that course,” Esper said. “That may lead to smaller defense budgets in the future at the critical time at which we need to continue making this adjustment where we look at China, then Russia, as our long-term strategic competitors.”
FLATTENING THE SPENDING CURVE: The massive outlay of tax dollars intended to save jobs, businesses, and entire industries will likely continue to flatten defense spending for the foreseeable future, Esper predicts, requiring even tougher action to shed expensive weapons and force structure no longer suited to an age of cyber, space, and low-intensity conflict.
“We do need that sustained top-line growth, and if we don’t, we’re just going to have to accelerate the shedding of the legacy force and turning those dollars back into building the force we need in the future,” Esper said. “We need a larger, more capable Navy that can operate — that can implement desegregated lethality across the seven seas. We need to modernize, of course, our Air Force and to start thinking of, and continue working on, sixth-generation capabilities. And that more modern force looks like a completely revitalized strategic force.”
IT’S NOT JUST ABOUT THE TOP LINE: Esper says whoever is running the Pentagon after this year’s presidential election is going to face pressure to find money in the existing $740 billion defense budget.
“There are things we can do that are not budget-dependent,” Esper said. “I think we’ve got to continue doing what I started last summer, the defense-wide reviews.” Esper has found about $6 billion in savings that he was able to redirect into new technologies aimed at modernizing the force.
“There may be things we need to stop doing in order to free up dollars,” he said. “There are policy things, adjustments we can make in our training, relying more on our allies and partners to make sure we can get to that future end state we want in time.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Sivak and Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Rep. John Ratcliffe, President Trump’s pick to be the director of national intelligence, faces what will likely be a highly partisan grilling before the Senate Intelligence Committee this morning.
Trump originally nominated the Texas Republican last summer, but Ratcliffe, a stalwart defender of the president during the House impeachment hearings, withdrew after questions about his qualifications, which are spelled out in the 2004 law that created the office of DNI.
“Any individual nominated for appointment as Director of National Intelligence shall have extensive national security expertise,” says the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act.
Among the authors of that law was Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is expected to be a key vote if Ratcliffe is going to be confirmed over the objections of the Democratic Senate minority. “After questioning him in detail, I concluded that he does have the experience to meet the statutory standard to fill the position,” Collins said in a statement. “His knowledge of cybersecurity is particularly important given the challenges our country faces.”
Related: Washington Examiner: Retired CIA officer predicts Trump and his spy chiefs will be ‘outmaneuvered’ by intelligence community
PURPLE HEARTS AWARDED: Four months after an Iranian ballistic missile strike on al Asad Air Base, Iraq, 27 U.S. service members have been awarded Purple Hearts for wounds sustained in the attack.
Initially, the U.S. military and Trump reported there were no serious injuries from the attack, but in the days following, it became apparent that many troops suffered traumatic brain injuries from the blast wave of the powerful 1,000-pound warheads that destroyed some of the camp’s infrastructure.
Photos of some of the recipients were released by the U.S. military through the Defense Visual Information Distribution Service this week.
NONCOMBAT, NONCOVID-19 DEATH: The U.S. military reports the noncombat death of a U.S. service member in Erbil, Iraq, yesterday, which is not thought to be related to COVID-19.
No other details were released on what was described as a “noncombat related incident,” which is now under investigation. “COVID-19 is not suspected,” said the release from Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve.
The death is the third of a U.S. service member in Iraq this year. Two American troops were killed March 11 in a rocket attack on Camp Taji, north of Baghdad.
‘A TOUGH TIME FOR THE IRAQIS’: In his Brookings interview, Secretary Esper noted that while the U.S. policy toward Iraq remains to “support them in any way we can,” the country is struggling under a number of problems, including the inability to form a new government.
“You have a new designated prime minister who’s trying to pull a government together. He’s being influenced by Iran or Iranian proxies through the Shia militia groups,” Esper said. “And at the same time, you know, due to the collapse of the price of oil, you’ve seen a collapse in their revenues. So it’s a tough time for the Iraqis.”
“You’ve seen the Iraqi people out in the streets. It’s been about two things: corruption and the influence of Iran in their country. And we want to do what we can to help them get through that and become a sovereign, independent, prosperous nation.”
AFGHANISTAN OFF TRACK: Esper also conceded that the peace process in Afghanistan is faltering because of divisions in the Afghan government after a disputed presidential election and the Taliban’s stepped-up offensive, which violates the spirit of the February agreement with the U.S. that called for a reduction, not an increase, in violence.
“There has not been a reduction in violence, if you will, from the Taliban side. On the other hand, they have not attacked us or attacked major metropolitan areas.” Esper said. “We’ve seen some exchanges of prisoners but not enough.”
“On the other side, the Afghan government needs to organize itself and reach an agreement,” Esper said, referring to the unresolved dispute between incumbent President Ashraf Ghani and rival Abdullah Abdullah.
“We understand right now there is a possible new power-sharing agreement coming out between Abdullah and Ghani. If that’s successful, then we could form an intra-Afghan negotiating team that can then sit down with the Taliban.” Esper said. “We need to get this process on track.”
“This conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan government, it’s not going to be won on the battlefield. There’s not a military solution. We have to have a political solution,” he said. “So that is the path we are on. It’s clear to say that that path has been long and windy and bumpy, and it’s behind schedule, if you will. We continue to talk to both sides about what they need to do to fully implement the agreement.”
HEDGING ON FULL WITHDRAWAL: Pressed by Michael O’Hanlon about whether, absent real progress in the peace process, the U.S. would really leave Afghanistan next year as planned, Esper hedged, noting that the first phase called for a drawdown of U.S. troops to 8,600 by this summer and that after that, it would depend on what’s happening on the ground.
“At the end of the day, again, we want to make sure Afghanistan does not become a safe haven for terrorists. We are comfortable we can get down to a lower number and still do that,” Esper said. “And then from there, we’ll make decisions that are conditions-based.”
Of course, one major unknown factor is who will be the U.S. president next year, when the decision needs to be made.
COVID-19 UPDATE: As of Monday, the Pentagon reported 7,434 cases of coronavirus infection among military members, DOD civilians, and their families — an increase of 289 since Friday, with 290 requiring hospitalization at some point and 2,868 recovered. The death toll remains at 27, including two military members, 14 DOD civilians, four dependents, and seven contractors.
ESPER SAYS SAFEST PLACE IS ON A SHIP: “The statistics show that the safest place to be is on a deployed Navy ship, as compared to one that’s in port,” Esper said yesterday. “Of the 90-plus ships we have at sea, we only have two that have been affected.”
The Navy is no longer releasing numbers on how many sailors assigned to the USS Theodore Roosevelt or the USS Kidd are sick from COVID-19.
Esper said the Navy is still not sure how the Kidd became infected. “It may have been through a counterdrug operation,” he said. “But two ships out of, I think, 94 is a pretty good record.”
CSIS COVID-19 TRACKER: The International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies has updated its COVID-19 tracker, which is monitoring the pandemic’s impact on U.S. military operations and personnel.
It reports a higher number of COVID-19 cases within the Department of Defense — 9,497 confirmed cases, including 4,704 military service members, 887 dependents, 1,123 civilians, and 431 contractors.
The analysis also notes that while basic training has restarted in the services, with the exception of the Navy, “it will take several weeks before it is clear whether the new force protection procedures are working.”
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE BASE: In his Brookings interview yesterday, Esper said small companies that have been hit hard by the impact of the coronavirus could be the weakest link in the defense industry supply chain and should be the focus of financial aid to ensure the Pentagon continues to get the weapons, parts, and supplies it needs.
“The bigger companies, the primes, they have the financial means to sustain themselves,” said Esper. “That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention to them, but our priority must be placed on the furthest end of that supply chain first — and then work our way back in from there.”
“That’s where you see a lot of vulnerabilities, where again, companies simply don’t have the depth of financial means or personnel, whatever the case may be, to maintain those items, those components that are critical to assembling and bringing together the entire product.”
INDUSTRY WATCH:
Huntington Ingalls Industries has been awarded an undefinitized contract action, with a not-to-exceed value of around $187.5 million, for the procurement of long lead time material for the U.S. Navy America-class amphibious warship LHA 9. LHA 9 will be the U.S. Navy’s fourth America-class ship and the second LHA Flight I ship after the future USS Bougainville (LHA 8).
Northrop Grumman Corporation and Raytheon Missiles & Defense, a business of Raytheon Technologies, are partnering to pursue a U.S. Missile Defense Agency contract for the Next Generation Interceptor. “This strategic partnership will offer the MDA an interceptor solution that will support the warfighter and MDA’s efforts to rapidly deploy a system that complements and strengthens the existing Ballistic Missile Defense architecture,” the companies said.
Northrop Grumman and Raytheon Missiles & Defense currently provide the interceptor booster, kill vehicle, ground systems, fire control, and engagement coordination for the country’s Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system. Together, the two companies have conducted over 40 successful exoatmospheric intercepts.
Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri Marine has been awarded $5.5 billion to develop the U.S. Navy’s newest class of warships, reports CNBC.
“The contract, announced last week, is for the design and construction of the lead frigate, with an option to buy nine more. If the U.S. Navy exercised all options on the contract, delivery of the 10th ship would be delivered in the mid-2030s,” the report said. “The Pentagon estimated the first ship would cost $1.2 billion. The nine subsequent ships would cost up to approximately $781 million, in 2018 constant dollars, Navy officials said in a call with reporters.”
READY FOR HIS CLOSE-UP: Check out Esper’s setup in the small studio behind the Pentagon briefing room for yesterday’s remote session with Brookings. Like many of us who are using videoconferencing software, Esper was using a laptop propped up to eye level, a makeshift backdrop, and a few lights to complete the effect.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Afghanistan troop withdrawal may hinge on power-sharing deal
Washington Examiner: Defense secretary to follow Fauci’s advice to keep troops safe
AP: Carrier Prepares To Go Back To Sea After Virus Outbreak
Stars and Stripes: USS Theodore Roosevelt Skipper Says Carrier Won’t Wait For All Sailors To Clear Quarantine
Reuters: Exclusive: Internal Chinese Report Warns Beijing Faces Tiananmen-Like Global Backlash Over Virus
CNN.com: China Pushes Back Against U.S. Claims That Coronavirus Originated From Wuhan Lab
Talk Media News: As Moscow strengthens and expands its grip on Arctic, Navy reacts with rare sailing off Russia’s Arctic coast
Breaking Defense: Navy To Publish Promotions, Prodded By Sen. Warren
Washington Post: To protect ‘no-fail’ mission, U.S. military unit moves into mountain bunker
Bloomberg: Pentagon Chief Chides FCC on Ligado Wireless Deal as GPS Threat
Breaking Defense: Experts Debate: Should JEDI Cloud Be Saved?
Just the News: During pandemic, soldiers train for war by playing video games
Bloomberg: Opinion: How to Deal With Iranian Speedboats
Calendar
NOTE: Most events in Washington have been moved online in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Pentagon has been conducting frequent daily briefings, which are often announced after 9 a.m. Check https://www.defense.gov for updates to the Pentagon’s schedule.
TUESDAY | MAY 5 | CINCO DE MAYO
8 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies “Korea Update” webcast, focusing on the South Korean elections, COVID-19 response efforts, diplomacy with the United States, and North Korea, with Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Korea and Japan Marc Knapper. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event-korea-update
9:30 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Senate (Select) Intelligence Committee hearing on the nomination of John Ratcliffe to be the director of National Intelligence. http://intelligence.senate.gov
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research webinar: “Disinformation Pandemic: Russian and Chinese Information Operations in the COVID-19 Era,” with Nataliya Bugayova, research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War; Frederick Kagan, director of the AEI Critical Threats Project; Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at AEI; and Zack Cooper, research fellow at AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/webinar
10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Security Through Global Partnerships,” with Army Lt. Gen. Charles Hooper, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency; and Steven Grundman, senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security. https://atlanticcouncil.org/event
10:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Nuclear Deterrence for the 21st Century,” with Fred Fleitz, president of the Center for Security Policy; Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security; Michaela Dodge, research scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy; and Patty-Jane Geller, policy analyst for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/missile-defense/event
11 a.m. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies Aerospace Security Project webcast: “NASA’s Moon to Mars Plan,” including NASA’s broader role in U.S. foreign policy and national security, with NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine and Todd Harrison, director of the CSIS Aerospace Security Project. https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
11 a.m. — Army Maj. Gen. Thomas Solhjem, chief of chaplains; and Army Sgt. Maj. Ralph Martinez, Chaplain Corps Regimental sergeant major, host a virtual town hall on Chaplain Corps activities since the outbreak of COVID-19. https://www.dvidshub.net/webcast/23954
WEDNESDAY | MAY 6
7 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies webinar: “New Missile Technologies: Old Arms Control Solutions,” with William Alberque, director of NATO’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation Center; Rear Adm. John Gower, former assistant chief of defense staff (nuclear, chemical, biological) in the UK Ministry of Defense; Pavel Podvig, senior researcher in the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research’s WMD Program; and Heather Williams, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute https://www.iiss.org/events
11 a.m. — Space Foundation webinar: “America’s Space Force: Building the Future Today,” with Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett and Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond. Registration at: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webcast: “Analyzing the Impact of the ‘Maximum Pressure’ Campaign on Iran Amid Coronavirus,” with Scott Modell, managing director of the Rapidan Energy Group and former senior Iran operations officer at the CIA; Mohsen Sazegara, president of the Research Institute on Contemporary Iran; David Asher, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute; and Michael Doran, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. https://www.hudson.org/events
1 p.m. — Women’s Foreign Policy Group webcast: “COVID-19’s Long Shadow: National and Global Security Challenges,” with former CIA Deputy Director of Intelligence Carmen Medina; Karen Monaghan, principal at KJM Analytics LLC; Miyeon Oh, director of the Atlantic Council’s Asia Security Initiative; Jennifer Griffin, national security correspondent at Fox News; and Samantha Vinograd, national security analyst at CNN. https://wfpg.memberclicks.net
3 p.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “DOD spectrum policy and the impact of the FCC approval of Ligado’s spectrum proposal on national security,” with Dana Deasy, DOD chief information officer; Michael Griffin, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen; Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
4:30 p.m. — Intelligence and National Security Alliance webcast with former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence Sue Gordon. https://www.insaonline.org/event
THURSDAY | MAY 7
8:30 a.m. — Raytheon Technologies conference call to discuss its first quarter 2020 earnings. The earnings will be released prior to the stock market opening. http://www.rtx.com
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nominations of Kenneth Braithwaite to be secretary of the Navy, James Anderson to be deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, and Gen. Charles Q. Brown, to be chief of staff of the Air Force. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | MAY 8
11 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “Global China: Assessing China’s Technological Reach in the World,” with Michael Brown, director of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit; and former FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, visiting governance studies fellow at the Brookings Center for Technology Innovation https://www.brookings.edu/events/webinar
TUESDAY I MAY 12
5 p.m. — George Mason University National Security Institute “NatSec Nightcap” event with Rep. Will Hurd, R-Texas; and Jamil Jaffer, executive director National Security Institute. https://nationalsecurity.gmu.edu
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“My view, the view of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, of our commanders, civilian leaders is: There will be a new normal that we will have to adapt to for an extended period of time, at least until we have a vaccine that we’re confident in.”
Secretary Mark Esper, speaking at a Brookings Institution webinar, on how COVID-19 is likely to affect the U.S. military for as long as 18 months.
