North Korea is no friend of America, that much should always be clear. But transnational problems such as the coronavirus pandemic require transnational solutions. That is why President Trump made the right call by offering anti-coronavirus aid in a letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Although it is unclear what exactly Trump wrote, it looks like he was hoping to assist North Koreans and maybe attempt to use aid as a jump-start to long-stalled denuclearization talks. These are worthy goals, and the United States leads best when it fights against global threats such as pandemics.
Unfortunately, North Korea turned down America’s offer even though North Korea’s oppressed people are likely to suffer mightily from the virus. Not surprisingly, Pyongyang instead complained about sanctions and restated its desire for lifted sanctions. It is true that some sanctions could impede the flow of vital humanitarian aid. This is an area where Washington has acted and can do more. But this is not the same thing as unilaterally lifting general sanctions and giving in to Kim’s demands. It is possible to alleviate the suffering of North Koreans and stop the virus from spreading further without aiding and abetting the Communist Party in Pyongyang.
The coronavirus pandemic is not over, and it is possible that the virus will return in waves after things appear to improve and initial lockdowns end. After all, the horrific 1918 influenza pandemic occurred in three waves, and many countries had to reinstate various restrictions to combat it. Certainly, Pyongyang should look after its own people. It is also true that North Korea is not as connected to the world as a modern and global country such as China. However, North Korea is still linked with China and Russia through trade and tourism. In fact, Pyongyang is connected to the rest of the world through diplomatic missions and illicit trade. All of these linkages are possible vectors for infected North Koreans to spread the coronavirus to more interconnected countries.
Clearly, Washington has a national interest in ensuring the virus is defeated. Experts are rightly concerned that North Korea does not have the infrastructure to deal with its own likely outbreak. Moreover, a high number of deaths could potentially destabilize Kim’s regime, opening up a whole new horrible set of problems. Just imagine what might happen if the impoverished, nuclear-weapon state broke down.
Pyongyang is trying to stop the coronavirus and has taken strong measures, including closing its border and cracking down on smuggling operations. These are not measures taken lightly as trade, both legal and illegal, are vital for the Kim regime to make money and stay afloat. Furthermore, the country’s still largely top-down economic system means that North Koreans need trade to help them stay alive. Already these bans have reduced North Korean exports to China by 72% in the first two months of 2020. Additionally, imports from China have also declined by 23%.
At the same time, many North Korean hospitals lack running water and its people are malnourished. Pyongyang’s ruling elite have enriched themselves and built expensive weapons at the cost of their people. They aren’t ready for a pandemic, and they have their leaders to blame.
Yet, human suffering must still be alleviated where possible and restarting talks with Pyongyang would be a good thing. NK News reports that apparently 180 North Korean soldiers have died from COVID-19 and it is unclear how many are infected. Medical supplies are badly needed and, once America gets its own house in order, Washington ought to once again offer aid.
Although Pyongyang might not accept help until things get really bad, North Korea still might act before that happens. It all depends on how scared Kim is of collapse and how he thinks the politics will play out. Kim wants to act strong and may try to perfect his nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles while America is distracted. But he also knows that widespread death is destabilizing — his family faced down a failed coup in 1995 led by military officers angry at widespread famine and economic ruin. No matter how badly Kim treats his people or how he acts on the international stage, his first priority is survival. In other words, he isn’t irrational and, therefore, can be negotiated with.
So far, Kim hasn’t tested ICBMs either because he isn’t ready yet or because he doesn’t want to rock the boat in case he does end up taking foreign aid. Regardless, it is good that Pyongyang hasn’t acted out further and that North Korea is at least taking some pandemic measures. America must look out for her own people and quickly ramp up mass testing in order to get through this crisis. While that happens, Washington must keep an eye on, and a hand outstretched to, Pyongyang. It will serve no one’s national interests if the virus spreads from North Korea in the near future or if Kim’s regime collapses with no clear successor in control of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons.
John Dale Grover is an assistant managing editor at the National Interest and a Korean studies fellow at the Center for the National Interest.
