Jockeying for the Republican nomination in 2024 has been quietly underway for a couple of years. And more than a week past Election Day 2020, a crowded field of contenders is beginning to crystallize, with presumptive President-elect Joe Biden appearing to have ousted President Trump.
The primary fight is still two-and-a-half years off. But several candidates are deep in the campaign planning stages for their bid to claim Trump’s throne. Other Republicans, also eyeing a White House run since early in the Trump presidency but waiting for his reelection bid to pass, are poised to step up the pace of their march toward 2024. Chief among this group could be Trump himself.
The president is not conceding defeat, claiming Biden’s victory was built on voter fraud and other electoral malfeasance. But Trump’s odds of overturning the results are thin at best, and the Republican chief executive has indicated to confidants for months that he would consider running again if Biden managed to beat him. Following is a list of 2024 Republicans, starting with the president himself.
Trump: The president is on track to earn more than 71.5 million votes in the 2020 general election, the second-most in history for a White House candidate behind Biden’s expected 76.5 million-plus. Those are a lot of Republican voters — proof Trump is as popular as ever with a GOP base that tends to dominate in presidential primaries despite losing after just one term. Especially if grassroots Republicans continue to agree with Trump’s claims that Democrats stole the election, he could be tough to beat in 2024 if he mounts a third campaign.
Donald Trump Jr.: The president’s eldest son has been discussed as the heir to the Trump legacy and a potential candidate for the White House. The talk doesn’t emanate from him. Chants of “2024” have broken out at rallies, and some supporters have adorned his appearances with homemade “Donald Trump Jr. 2024” signs. Recently, Trump Jr. flexed his muscles by calling out potential 2024 Republicans by accusing them of abandoning the president’s legal challenges to the 2020 results. With five young children to raise, it’s unclear if Trump Jr. will run, but he could be a force in the primary if he did.
Vice President Mike Pence: The vice president is a loyal soldier. He accepted Trump’s assignment to lead the coronavirus task force and functioned in the critical role of go-between with the nation’s governors, many of whom have rocky relationships with Trump. Pence has been Trump’s bridge to traditional Republicans — voters and wealthy establishment donors — unsettled by his provocative behavior, putting his character on the line to vouch for the president and reassure skeptics. But is that enough for the mild-mannered Pence to win over GOP primary voters smitten with Trump’s combativeness?
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: Despite beginning 2016 a virulent Trump critic, Pompeo’s relationship with the president has only grown since he first joined the administration as Central Intelligence Agency director. Their strong connection — the fact that Pompeo was among the few high-ranking administration officials that the president did not fire or resign because of major policy disagreements — gives him bragging rights in 2024. Perhaps Pompeo was hedging on Tuesday when he predicted “a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.” His challenge is staying relevant between now and then. Pompeo is betting yes, having passed on a Kansas Senate seat that would have guaranteed him a platform to run for president.
Nikki Haley: Trump’s former United Nations ambassador is another savvy Republican figure who managed to turn criticism of the president in 2016 into a cabinet position and high praise from the commander in chief during his presidency. After Haley left the administration (on good terms), she launched a political organization, began building an army of small-dollar grassroots contributors, and traveled the country stumping for GOP congressional candidates. As a charismatic woman, her candidacy appeals to Republicans who believe the party must do more to attract voters who are not white men — at least without Trump on the ticket. The question most Republicans have is not if the former South Carolina governor will run, but when she will make her campaign official.
Sen. Ted Cruz: The runner-up to Trump in 2016 is likely to run again. Cruz would begin 2024 with key advantages: name identification, a robust email list of grassroots campaign contributors, and the experience of running before — long a prerequisite for winning GOP primaries pre-Trump. The Texas senator also has the advantage of having few, if any, policy blemishes on his record on key issues such as immigration. Still undetermined is whether his initially rocky relationship with Trump, long-since smoothed over, will be used against him. The two talk regularly. But after declining to endorse Trump during his speech to party delegates in Cleveland four years ago, Cruz was not invited to speak at this year’s gathering.
Sen. Marco Rubio: The Florida Republican has not been as politically active on the 2024 front as others. But he has spent four years since Trump was elected exploring the socio-political causes behind the president’s surprising 2016 victory and updating his governing agenda to account for so many Americans, particularly working-class voters in the heartland, felt left behind and ignored by the country’s political, cultural and governing elites. That has manifested in the form of “common good capitalism,” an economic philosophy that acknowledges there is a role for government in the market. Job No. 1 for Rubio is winning reelection to a third Senate term in 2022. He could pivot to a 2024 presidential bid thereafter.
Sen. Tom Cotton: The Arkansas Republican has been among the most aggressive in preparing for a 2024 bid. What Cotton lacks in personal magnetism and political celebrity, he makes up for with relentless drive and focus. The senator has built a political organization from scratch, methodically cultivating relationships with influential donors, building his email list, and forging connections with key GOP operations in early primary states. Additionally, and perhaps critically: Cotton boasts a populist record on problems such as immigration and trade that is in alignment with Trump, whom he chats with often. The only thing that is likely to keep Cotton from the next GOP primary is a prominent position in the president’s cabinet. That no longer appears to be an option.
Gov. Kristi Noem: South Dakota’s chief executive emerged as the rising star of the 2020 election cycle. Noem hosted Trump in her state in July for a major speech on American values at Mount Rushmore, traveled the country extensively to campaign for his reelection, and delivered a well-received speech at the Republican convention in August. But perhaps the most important factor in Noem’s burgeoning popularity has been her defiant refusal since the earliest days of the coronavirus pandemic to implement economic lockdowns and other restrictions on gathering — even amid periodic spikes of infections. Counted among Noem’s advisers is Trump confidant Corey Lewandowski, another reason why Republicans are expecting her to mount a presidential bid.
In 2024, the list of potential Republican presidential candidates could run as long as it did four years ago in a 17-person field. Other names to watch include:
Gov. Larry Hogan: The Marylander considered challenging Trump in the 2020 Republican presidential primary but demurred after concluding there was no market for an alternative to the incumbent among GOP voters. But look for him to give a White House bid another look in 2024.
Sen. Josh Hawley: The telegenic Missouri senator has impressed grassroots Republicans and wealthy GOP donors alike. He has focused on developing a bold populist agenda that appeals to blue-collar voters but offers his plans with the welcoming personality that might help Republicans regain ground lost in the suburbs under Trump.
Sen. Rick Scott: Elected chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee by his peers, the Floridian is charged with defending the party’s Senate majority in 2022 — or reclaiming it, depending on the outcome of two runoff elections in Georgia in January. Look for him to pivot to a 2024 presidential bid thereafter. [Disclaimer: The writer’s wife counts Scott as a client.]
Sen. Tim Scott: The South Carolina Republican received high praise for the speech he delivered on Trump’s behalf at the president’s renomination celebration in August. He has already said that his 2022 reelection bid will be his last to the Senate and is mulling a White House bid two years later.
Sen. Ben Sasse: The Nebraska Republican does not think highly of Trump, as was made apparent in a leaked conversation he had with a constituent during a tele-town hall meeting he convened in October. That could be a detriment to any White House aspirations he might have, unless the party goes in a different direction four years hence.
Chris Christie: The former governor of New Jersey has managed to maintain a close relationship with Trump while keeping one foot inside the traditional GOP establishment. That could be a valuable commodity in 2024. Christie’s presidential bid fell short in 2016, undermined in part on a controversy concerning a bridge closure while he was governor.
Gov. Greg Abbott: The Texas Republican is either very interested in running for president in 2024, or not interested at all, depending on who you ask. He still has the 2022 election to navigate ahead of any presidential bid, and Texas is more competitive than in years past, although the Democrats struck out in 2020.
Gov. Ron DeSantis: He could be one of three Florida Republicans in the field of GOP primary contenders in 2024. Running from Florida offers healthy access to Republican donors, political strategists, and nominating delegates. The only question is what happens if DeSantis has to split all of that two or three ways. His close relationship with the Trump family could prove advantageous.
Gov. Doug Ducey: The Arizonan is taking over as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, a group that affords GOP chiefs executive access to some of the party’s most influential donors and top political operatives. If he ran, it would not be the first time a governor used the RGA as a platform to launch a presidential bid.
Gov. Pete Ricketts: The easy-going Nebraskan has not enjoyed the attention bestowed on fellow small-state governor Noem. But Ricketts is from a wealthy Republican family that has donated generously to Trump and other party causes, with his brother, Todd, spending the last couple of years as finance chairman of the Republican National Committee.
