On Sunday afternoon, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told the media assembled for a coronavirus response press conference that he believed New York City schools should be closed. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had to that point refused to shut down schools until the governor, his fellow Democrat, publicly contradicted him. Only late Sunday did the mayor finally relent and close the schools down.
In his refusal to cancel school a week after most other districts already had, de Blasio cited the fact that many parents in the city rely on the school district to feed and provide child care during the day. Governors and mayors around the country stepped up to close schools for the sake of public health, but in the largest city in the country, de Blasio had to have his arm twisted for a week to do the right thing.
If data out of Europe and Asia is any indication, de Blasio’s reckless delay could cost many lives needlessly due to the increased spread of the coronavirus it may have enabled.
Whereas most school districts across the country, big and small, have canceled classes as the global pandemic has reached our shores, life in New York for some time carried on as usual. The scene looks familiar: Those in Northern Italy say that’s what life looked like there before the tsunami of infections overwhelmed their healthcare system and led to a total shutdown of life.
“They cited irresponsible behavior by many citizens, who despite the earlier warnings not to gather in large numbers, headed to beaches or ski resorts, and hung out together in town squares, especially after the closure of schools.” https://t.co/crTv8hmwCZ
— Yashar Ali ? (@yashar) March 15, 2020
“If you love your neighborhood bar, go there now.” @NYCMayor – adding that you should do so “briefly” and with “social distancing” but his implication is ALL nyc bars could be shut down. “Everything is on the table.” #nbc4ny pic.twitter.com/PtLsE0eZ29
— Andrew Siff (@andrewsiff4NY) March 15, 2020
Italy is ground zero for the crisis.
On Sunday, the number of deaths jumped by roughly 25%, with 368 deaths in one day, numbering more than 1,800 total dead. The rate of deaths is growing faster than in Wuhan at the height of its outbreak, according to Chinese reports (which are not the most reliable). Whereas the death rate in China was between 1-2%, the rate of death in Italy is more than 7% of the confirmed cases. One reason for the jump is because when a healthcare system is strained to its breaking point, and healthcare providers are forced to ration care, more patients die, and more quickly.
In response to the outbreak and the packed bars and restaurants in their states on a warm St. Patrick’s Day weekend, the governors of Illinois and Ohio have issued mandatory orders for them to close for the rest of the month.
Illinois Governor @JBPritzker is ordering the closure of all bars and restaurants in the State of Illinois through the end of March.
In his remarks Governor Pritzker says he tried to get people to self-police, but he can no longer wait for that to happen.
— Yashar Ali ? (@yashar) March 15, 2020
Italy is the worst-case scenario for what happens when the healthcare system becomes overloaded with cases. Whereas other cities and states are taking the threat seriously, with its last week of packed bars and restaurants, open schools, and packed public transportation, New York City appears poised to become our Wuhan or Lombardy: the epicenter of coronavirus deaths in the United States.
Data scientist Michael Donnelly explained:
The NYC region has between 1,200 and 3,000 open hospital beds. This analysis suggests that enough people will become infected by March 23 and March 25 that NYC’s hospitals will be fully at capacity approximately 7 days later. (Infected people who will become severely ill do not immediately need medical care upon being infected. There is approximately a 5–7 day incubation period. After which, most severe cases present to the hospital within 2–3 days.)
#NYC has only days left to avert a disaster from #COVID19. We need leadership from our elected officials now. Close the city. Save thousands of lives. #coronavirus https://t.co/tsuAM43ayo
— Michael Donnelly (@donnellymjd) March 15, 2020
Those in Italy have already seen a total system collapse of their healthcare system, and New York City is poised to be next.
City Councilman Mark Levine has been loudly beating the drum for a total shutdown of New York City, before it’s too late, which it appears increasingly likely it is:
I have been on the phone with all those same experts and can confirm this. The window to head this off is closing. https://t.co/rZljZy8tGi
— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) March 15, 2020
Why is it that New Yorkers aren’t heeding public health recommendations for socially distancing to protect the most vulnerable members of the community, as advised by every major public health leader and organization? It has something to do with who’s steering the ship. Appallingly, the day after strict restrictions were applied to New York City businesses and schools, the mayor refused to change his behavior and made his way to the YMCA gym.
Mayor Bill de Blasio on coronavirus measures in NYC: “We cannot shut down because of undue fear.”https://t.co/nQTr56zMtP
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) March 10, 2020
Mayor de Blasio is indeed here at the Park Slope YMCA this morning. Passers by have commented negatively. One called him an idot. pic.twitter.com/FIgEmlf4Gf
— andrew kaczynski? (@KFILE) March 16, 2020
When all is said and done, our greatest hope as a nation should be that the actions taken at this time were an overreaction. But if they are not, if New York City does see the kinds of carnage visited upon Lombardy and Wuhan, de Blasio’s incompetent response will be partially to blame.
UPDATE: This article has been updated to note Mayor de Blasio’s Monday trip to the YMCA.
Bethany Mandel (@bethanyshondark) is a stay-at-home, homeschooling mother of four and freelance writer. She is an editor at Ricochet.com, a columnist at the Forward, and a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog.
