President Trump’s first post-lockdown campaign rally was seen as a disappointment, but Republicans are betting that being noticeably more active on the campaign trail than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden will pay dividends in the long run.
It’s a test of two wildly different approaches to campaigning. Dating back to his real estate developer days gracing the covers of New York City tabloids, Trump has long believed he is better off dominating the headlines, even if some of the resulting coverage is negative. Biden is also gradually returning to in-person events, but he has been largely content to cede the spotlight to Trump and has a 9.5-point lead in the RealClearPolitics national polling average to show for it.
“The resumption of campaign rallies will fire up Trump’s base and keep his campaign churning, with massive amounts of new data which can translate into new small-dollar donors and new volunteers,” said Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak. “The contrast of Trump on the campaign trail with Biden hiding in his basement in Delaware will be stark.”
Democrats aren’t so sure. They look at the “Make America Great Again” rally in Tulsa and see not the anticipated campaign relaunch but a flurry of bad news: wall-to-wall coverage of uncharacteristically empty seats, a canceled overflow event at which Trump and Vice President Mike Pence had been scheduled to speak, negative ad-worthy comments about slowing down coronavirus testing, the use of the phrase “kung-flu,” six Trump advance team members contracting the virus, and numerous lengthy digressions from the planned attacks on Biden.
Other than after the first week of daily coronavirus briefings at the White House, during which Trump’s numbers briefly spiked as the public rallied around the president in a time of crisis, Biden has been better off in the basement. Democrats want the election to be a referendum on Trump, not a binary choice between the president and his challenger.
The Trump campaign has regularly attacked “Hidin’ Biden” for his scarcity. The point is to either draw out Biden, leading him to make more appearances carrying opportunities for gaffes and missteps that reinforce concerns about his age and mental acuity or create the impression the former vice president is indeed hiding something.
“Biden hasn’t held a press conference in 81 days because his handlers are likely terrified of him attempting to answer questions about the economic pain his resistance to reopening is causing, particularly among Black Americans,” said a Monday statement from Trump’s rapid response team.
But Biden has thrived in obscurity throughout the campaign since the Democratic primaries.
“For now, it’s tough to argue for anything else,” said Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin. “Trump is the story, and he is not exactly running a disciplined campaign right now. Certainly, Biden will have to pivot at some point, but for now, I am guessing he is happy to let Trump keep putting the fires out with more gasoline.”
Another veteran Democratic operative put it this way: “Every day that’s not about Joe Biden is a day that Joe Biden wins.”
The White House has denied Trump was upset by Saturday’s rally, with press secretary Kayleigh McEnany describing it as “a huge success.”
Even some Republican insiders worry that the eventful past four years, capped by a stressful summer of economic dislocation, potentially resurging coronavirus, and civil unrest, will lead to what one strategist called “generalized Trump fatigue.” But they are also skeptical Biden can keep his current low profile without political consequence.
For all the attention paid to the empty seats in Tulsa, sporadic Biden campaign events have attracted attendance more suitable for PTA meetings. The New York Times described one as taking place in a “nearly empty room.” Whether that’s primarily due to virus fears or an enthusiasm gap between the candidates remains to be seen.
Trump is expected to have further live campaign rallies as Biden proceeds more slowly.
