Last week, at Beijing’s request, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met in Hawaii with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi.
China wanted to use that meeting to offer trade concessions to President Trump. Its hope was that this would cause Trump to restrain increasingly tough U.S. policies against Beijing.
Judged by Trump’s and Pompeo’s Twitter feeds on Monday, the ploy doesn’t appear to have succeeded. With three separate tweets, Pompeo attacked Beijing’s new Hong Kong national security law, condemned its kidnapping of two Canadians, and announced the listing of four more Chinese propaganda outlets as foreign government entities. Later on Monday, the president tweeted that stage one of the U.S.-China trade deal remained in force, but added, “hopefully they will continue to live up to the agreement.”
These messages are important, reflecting the principle of “verify in return for trust.”
And China isn’t happy about having to verify. Foreign affairs spokesperson (also Beijing’s Twitter troll commander in chief), Zhao Lijian, used his Monday press conference to describe Pompeo’s actions as reflective of “his deep-seated Cold War mentality and ideological bias … People won’t buy a word he said.”
But then came the tell. Zhao was far more conciliatory toward Trump. Asked for his reaction over Trump’s recent description of the coronavirus as the “kung-flu,” Zhao responded, “Many insightful people in the U.S. have publicly condemned the use of the epidemic to stigmatize others and make racist remarks.” Why no direct attack on Trump a la Zhao’s attack on Pompeo?
That cuts to the heart of Beijing’s U.S. strategy heading toward November. Xi’s hope was that Yang’s meeting with Pompeo would persuade Trump to cut at least a short term detente-based deal. As Pompeo confirmed on Twitter, Yang used that meeting to reemphasize Beijing’s commitment to the “Stage One” trade deal reached by the president and Chairman Xi last year.
Why the economic focus?
Well, because China assesses that Trump will be particularly pleased with economic commitments in the run-up to November. The Chinese believe, justifiably, that Trump views a restored, strong economy as the keystone to his reelection. The Chinese also know that Trump prioritizes his “art of the deal” narrative above all other foreign policy concerns. That Beijing understanding was reemphasized on Friday when the president told Axios that he’s open to meeting Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. Trump’s offer to mediate Indian-Chinese border issues will also have earned Beijing’s attention. By asking for a meeting on U.S. soil, Beijing cleverly played to Trump’s ego. The intended message: We’re willing to deal with you on your terms, dealmaker da Vinci.
It’s just a game.
Fortunately, Trump’s tweet suggests he sees through it. And I hope – and suspect – that the president also sees the ultimate end game reality here. Namely, that the Chinese Communist Party elites are very unlikely to want Trump reelected (semi side-note: the CIA have far greater operational latitude against China than they ever did under President Obama).
Yet, regardless of whether or not Xi would prefer Joe Biden in the White House, he and the Standing Committee aren’t being straight with Pompeo or the president. China is using narrow economic levers or “dangles,” to earn a short-term cessation of U.S. pressure. Once that pressure is eased, Xi will return to his familiar modus operandi of ignoring prior commitments and pursuing a policy structurally designed — in no small part by the man who met Pompeo in Hawaii, Yang — around China’s global, exclusive self-interest.
At the moment, however, Xi needs some breathing space. Beijing’s coronavirus pandemic has shattered its global reputation (with more damage to come), it has jumped into an avoidable bloody battle with a rising superpower (further negative PR), and it faces Pompeo’s increasingly successful effort to isolate China from global technology hubs. At the same time, China hasn’t quite figured out that deploying arrogant “diplomat wolves” like Zhao only makes the world angrier.
Trump and Pompeo both appear to see China’s new outreach for what it is: desperation veiled under a pretense of diplomatic sincerity. Or what the French might disdainfully regard as a less than pure example of “Je ne sais quoi.”
The truth here, and always?
There is only one way to deal effectively with Communist China, and that is through resolution. If China wants to buy more U.S. goods, fine. But Beijing cannot expect those purchases to create space for its killing of American intellectual property, kidnapping of American allies, destruction of its treaty commitments, and theft of the Indian and Pacific oceans.
This is how it should be. America’s leaders should not be bought at so low a price as European Union presidents.
