There is one area where the White House and its outside allies would like to see President Trump emulate former President Bill Clinton: focusing “like a laser beam” on the economy.
When Clinton used that slogan — along with James Carville’s famous catchphrase “It’s the economy, stupid!” — in the 1992 campaign, the public was searching for new jobs and more robust growth. Ahead of the midterm elections, the Trump economy is looking good. The problem, supporters say, is getting the president to focus on it.
Trump may have mistweeted when he claimed monthly GDP growth was higher than the unemployment rate for the first time in 100 years. But the economy expanding at a 4.2 percent rate amid 3.9 percent unemployment are definitely two statistics Republicans would like to brag about as they seek to defend their endangered majorities — so much so that when former President Barack Obama made his return to the campaign trail, he laid claim to them himself. “When you hear how great the economy’s doing right now, let’s just remember when this recovery started.”
These kinds of debates are nothing new. Clinton ran in 1992 on dealing with a recession that had technically ended well before his nomination, but the Internet boom that took place during his second term was certainly stronger than what he inherited. Similarly, the economy rebounded under Obama’s watch but the unemployment rate was still stuck above 8 percent as he was seeking his second term.
Trump’s economic team has been quick to argue that the president isn’t merely riding on Obama’s coattails. “I think that if anyone were to assert that the capital spending boom that we’re seeing right now was a continuation of the trend that President Trump inherited, then, well, you know, they wouldn’t get a high grade in graduate school for that assertion,” Kevin Hassett, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, told reporters at a White House briefing.
Hassett denied he was responding directly to Obama. “We were prepared to do this briefing a few weeks ago,” he said. But Stephen Moore wrote in the New York Post that “the contrast in economic performance between the two presidents is undeniable” and to claim otherwise is akin to arguing “the Kingston Trio laid the groundwork for the Beatles.”
“The Trump economy so far has reached a real inflection point,” Larry Kudlow told the New York Times. “Trump has ended the war on business and he’s ended the war on success, and he’s been urging people to go out and start a new company and go back to work.”
Trump himself has frequently touted the economy in speeches and on the campaign trail. He tweeted that Obama’s attempt to take credit for recent growth was “disgraceful.” Republicans nevertheless worry that he isn’t doing enough to spread this message. Sources close to the White House told the Washington Examiner that Trump lets too many other things intrude and ought to talk more about the gains experienced by the blue-collar communities that voted for him. Republicans who are more distant from the administration fear the tariffs and trade wars will eventually hurt the economy.
“Blue-collar workers are being helped,” said Bradley Blakeman, a former aide to President George W. Bush. “There’s no doubt about it. They are seeing the benefits of Republican leadership. While their union leaders might be liberal, the membership tends to be conservative.”
That even helps the president deviate a bit from the standard Republican economic message. “The economy is good news and that’s helpful,” said veteran political consultant and commentator Pat Caddell, “but I think the tax cuts, despite some of the big Republican donors’ efforts” are not selling as well.
It is down-ballot Republicans who stand to benefit from a successful sales job on the economy this November. Longer term, it may be necessary to carry Trump to a second term that seems remote on the eve of his first midterm election. That’s how it worked for Bill Clinton.
