GIVE IN, OR DIG IN? President Trump will need all his negotiating skills today as he meets with House and Senate Minority Leaders Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Calif., and Sen. Chuck Schumer, N.Y., to work on a deal aimed at avoiding a federal government shutdown in 10 days. Trump’s newest, biggest ally in Congress, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., is advising the president to play hardball with Democrats over his demand for $5 billion to begin construction of the border wall — which Trump initially promised Mexico would pay for. “If I were the president, I would dig in and not give in on additional wall funding,” Graham said Sunday on Fox News. “I want the whole $5 billion because the caravan is a game-changer.” But with Democrats poised to take control of the House early next month, Pelosi and Schumer have the stronger hand. And since currently, Republicans have majorities in both chambers, any partial government shutdown, they argue, would be “a Trump Shutdown.” In a joint statement issued last night, Pelosi and Schumer said, “This holiday season the president knows full well that his wall proposal does not have the votes to pass the House and Senate and should not be an obstacle to a bipartisan agreement.” The Democrats have lowered their opening bid from the $1.6 billion they previously offered for “border security,” to $1.3 billion that would freeze funding for DHS at current levels if no new deal can be reached. The stop-gap continuing resolution expires Friday, Dec. 21, just before the four-day Christmas holiday weekend. It’s funding 25 percent of the government, including Department of Homeland Security. The Department of Defense was fully funded back in September. BUDGET MANEUVERS: The Pentagon yesterday neither confirmed nor denied Sunday’s Politico report that Trump has signed off on a proposed $750 billion top line for defense and national security spending in the Fiscal Year 2020, which would be a 7 percent increase over the initial guidance to plan for a $700 billion budget. “We are working with OMB to determine the department’s top-line budget number that supports a strategy-driven budget,” said Col. Rob Manning yesterday, reading from a prepared statement. “The president’s Department of Defense budget requests will be released on Feb. 4 We will not provide any specific numbers until that time.” Previously the Pentagon said the $733 billion was the number that was dictated by the need to fund the National Military Strategy. “The department remains committed to ensuring our military remains the most lethal force in the world,” Manning said. “As we’ve said previously, the department needs predictable stable funding to continue to implement the national defense strategy.” DUNFORD NO LAME DUCK: It’s still not clear why the president felt it necessary to announce his pick to be the next Joint Chiefs chairman months ahead of time, but Manning insisted yesterday it was not a signal the current chairman, Gen. Joseph Dunford would be leaving early. “At this point, all indications are that Gen. Dunford will serve his full term,” Manning told reporters yesterday. Dunford’s second two-year terms end in September. Asked if the Trump’s Saturday announcement that Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley would be nominated to replace Dunford renders him a lame duck, Manning said, “No, no concern there.” Manning referred all further questions about that nomination to the White House. IT’S A HIT: Word just in this morning that the U.S. has conducted another successful test of its “Aegis Ashore” missile defense system, shooting down a target missile that mimicked an attack from an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile. The IRBM target was launched from a U.S. Air Force C-17 flying over the ocean thousands of miles southwest of the Aegis Ashore test site near Kauai, Hawaii. An interceptor missile was then fired from Hawaii, knocking the target from the sky. “This was an operational live fire test demonstrating the Aegis Weapon System Engage On Remote capability to track and intercept an Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile target with an Aegis Ashore-launched Standard Missile-3 Block IIA interceptor,” said a statement from the Missile Defense Agency. “This system is designed to defend the United States, its deployed forces, allies, and friends from a real and growing ballistic missile threat,” said MDA Director Lt. Gen. Sam Greaves. “I offer my congratulations to all members of the team, military, civilian, contractors and allies who helped make this possible.” COINCIDENCE? After initially denying an accusation from U.S. Secretary State Mike Pompeo, Iran has now confirmed it recently conducted a test of a missile that could target Europe. “We are continuing our missile tests and this recent one was a significant test,” the Fars news agency reported, citing Revolutionary Guard aerospace commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh. Iran did not say what kind of missile was tested. Pompeo on Saturday issued a statement saying the test of a “medium-range ballistic missile that is capable of carrying multiple warheads,” violated UN Security Council resolution 2231 that bans Iran from undertaking “any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology …” The U.S. Aegis Ashore system is being deployed to Romania and Poland as part of the European Phased Adaptive Approach. The Aegis Ashore site in Romania was certified operational in 2016. The site in Poland is not yet up and running. Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
HAPPENING TODAY: Army Col. Jonathan Byrom, who is deputy director of Joint Operations Command — Iraq, will no doubt face some questions today about why the U.S.-led coalition bombed a hospital in Syria, as the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces closed in on the last remnants of ISIS fighters. The U.S. says Hajin Hospital lost its a protected status under the Law of Armed Conflict when ISIS began using it as a platform to engage U.S. partner forces on Dec. 9. Hospitals are usually off limits to attack, under provisions of the Geneva Conventions. “ISIS has no regard for human life. As we close in on them, they are getting more and more desperate and are hiding behind the safety of mosques, hospitals, and other protected sites,” said Maj. Gen. Patrick Roberson, commanding general of the Operation Inherent Resolve mission. “Hiding is futile and we will continue to work with our partner forces to find ISIS and ensure their lasting defeat.” THEY SEND BOMBERS, WE SEND DOCTORS: Meanwhile the Pentagon yesterday was contrasting the actions of the United States and Russia in response to the humanitarian crisis caused the meltdown of the Venezuelan economy. The medical staff on the U.S. hospital ship USNS Comfort have treated more than 20,000 civilians and performed over 600 surgeries as its stops in various Central and South American nations, including places where patients have fled the desperate conditions in Venezuela, the Pentagon said yesterday. “The Comfort is currently in Honduras and will continue treating those in need until the ship departs this week,” Manning said, before taking a swipe at Moscow. “Contrast this with Russia, whose approach to the man-made disaster in Venezuela is to send bomber aircraft instead of humanitarian assistance. The Venezuelan government should be focusing on providing humanitarian assistance and aid to lessen the suffering of its people and not on Russian warplanes.” Two Russian Tupolev TU-160 Blackjacks supersonic strategic heavy bombers are in Venezuela, along with maintenance and refueling capabilities, according to the Pentagon. CHINA, RUSSIA NAVAL BRIEFING: The Senate Armed Services Committee will get a closed-door briefing at 2:30 p.m. from Navy and Marine Corps leaders on recent naval activity by Russia and China. Moscow triggered an international crisis last month when it seized three Ukrainian naval vessels off the coast of Crimea. Just last week, a Chinese military official reportedly suggested Beijing should confront and ram U.S. Navy ships conducting freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea. AI HEARING: The House Armed Services Committee has a hearing scheduled for 3:30 p.m. on the Pentagon’s artificial intelligence programs. Deputy Defense Undersecretary Lisa Porter and Dana Deasy, the Pentagon chief information officer, will testify. KYL AT HERITAGE: This afternoon at 4:30 p.m. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., a Senate Armed Services member, gives a talk at the Heritage Foundation titled, “A National Security Crisis,” which will touch on defense spending and challenges from Russia, China, North Korea, and terrorist groups. DEFENSE STOCKS JUMP: While trade disputes swing the market, reports over the weekend that Trump has settled on an eye-popping $750 billion defense budget appeared to equal a good day for defense stocks. “Shares of Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman rose more than 2 percent each in trading. General Dynamics also gained 1.3 percent, while Boeing rose off the lows of the day,” CNBC reported. Lockheed Martin led the rise in the defense sector, rising up to 4.2 percent, which was its best day in over eight months, the Financial Times reported. But Raytheon and Northrop saw similar gains. “Overall the S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense industry index gained 0.7 percent. This compares to the wider S&P 500, which briefly hit an eight-month low after dropping as much as 1.9 percent earlier this morning,” according to FT. The rise in defense and tech stocks helped the stock market eke out a modest gain, following a week in which the S&P 500 lost more than 5 percent. BORDER DRAWDOWN: The Pentagon is beginning a drawdown of U.S. active-duty troops at the U.S.-Mexico border this week that will result in about 2,200 being home by the holidays, the Associated Press is reporting. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis just signed an order last week extending the border mission end date from Dec. 15 to the conclusion of January. The Pentagon said Monday that about 5,200 troops remain in Texas, Arizona, and California. “Some units have completed their mission and have already started to partially redeploy. Other units have been identified to rotate home and will be returning home over the next several weeks,” Pentagon spokesman Col. Rob Manning said. But Manning said the troop totals are “going to flux” and depend on the support requested by the Department of Homeland Security and its U.S. Customs and Border Protection. LOSING THE NEXT BIG WAR: The first big defeat of the U.S. military could be just around the corner. At least that is the grim warning from a commission created by Congress to review the Trump administration’s national defense strategy. “We don’t have the margins that I would like to see to guarantee a win,” said retired Adm. Gary Roughead, the former chief of naval operations and co-chair of the commission. In this week’s Washington Examiner magazine we dive into the nightmare scenarios laid out by the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, including a China trade blockade, a North Korea nuclear standoff, and a war with Russia in the Baltics. TRANSGENDER HEARING: Plaintiffs suing President Trump and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis over its transgender military service policy faced tough questioning Monday from judges weighing an appeal by the administration seeking to lift an injunction on the policy. Judge Thomas Griffith, of the D.C. circuit court of appeals, said existing case law suggests the courts should often defer to the government when it comes to who can serve. “Isn’t that what both those cases teach us is to tell courts, ‘Tread very carefully if at all here,’ because we leave to the political branches, the determination of who is combat ready and who is not combat-ready,” Griffith said during the arguments. “Why isn’t that precisely what we’re dealing with here? You are asking the courts to make determinations we are not equipped to make: Who is combat ready, who is not.” Transgender plaintiffs and rights groups argued the policy is about discrimination, not readiness and asked the three-judge panel to block the government’s appeal. A decision by the court could take weeks or months. “The weight of the evidence before the district court was that the 2017 White House memorandum was based on discrimination against a class of individuals,” said Jennifer Levi, a lead attorney for the plaintiffs and the director of the Transgender Rights Project for the group GLAD. “And the government was directed to develop an implementation plan to carry out that discriminatory directive.” MATTIS UNSCATHED: Writing in The Atlantic, James Fallows runs down a list of people he believes have had their reputations sullied while working the Trump administration, including he argues generals such as former national security adviser H.R McMaster and outgoing White House Chief of Staff John Kelly. The exception, argues Fallows is Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. “He seemed to take a big step in the wrong direction when he approved the political stunt of deploying troops to the southern border, before the election, to fend off ‘the caravan,’” Fallows writes. “But otherwise he’s mostly been sure-footed, and is the one senior Trump official whose personal and professional reputation is not yet in tatters, compared with the pre-Trump years.” THE RUNDOWN Breaking Defense: $750 Billion Or Bust? Trump’s (Latest) Big Defense Budget Bound For Big Fights Bloomberg: U.S. Places Sanctions on Three Senior North Korean Officials Washington Post: Retired general faces rape charges in Virginia following dismissal of Army case Breaking Defense: US Army’s Brain Transplant: Futurists Move To Futures Command Daily Beast: Paul Bremer, Former Iraq Czar, is Utterly Confused How He Became an Internet Meme Defense News: The US Navy’s last stealth destroyer is in the water Foreign Policy: The Death of Global Order Was Caused by Clinton, Bush, and Obama Air Force Magazine: Global Defense Spending Expected to Increase in 2019 Business Insider: Watch Russia’s elite Spetsnaz operators train by drop-kicking the windshields of cars The Hill: House lawmakers push Yemen resolution as Senate nears vote Reuters: Accused Russian agent Butina poised to plead guilty: U.S. court papers Wall Street Journal: Iraq Marks Anniversary of ISIS Defeat Amid Public Discontent New York Times: A Conflicted War: MS-13, Trump and America’s Stake in El Salvador’s Security |
CalendarTUESDAY | DEC. 11 10 a.m. Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford hosts an Armed Forces full honor arrival ceremony for Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto, commander of Indonesian National Armed Forces at Conmy Hall. Streamed live at www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/ 11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Col. Jonathan Byrom, Task Force Rifles commander and deputy director of Joint Operations Command – Iraq, briefs reporters by video to provide an update on operations in Iraq and Syria. Streamed live at www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events/ 11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of the U.S. Aircraft Carrier: Fearsome Warship or Expensive Target? heritage.org 11 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Paper Release: “A Preface to Strategy: The Foundations of American National Security.” sais-jhu.edu 11 a.m. 46870 Tate Rd. NDIA Patuxent River Speaker Series with Todd Balazs, Digital Integration Officer for Naval Air Systems Command. ndia.org 2:30 p.m. Senate Visitor Center 217. Closed Subcommittee Hearing on Recent Chinese and Russian Naval Activities with Vice Adm. Matthew Kohler, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations, and Marine Lt. Gen. Lori Reynolds, Deputy Commandant for Information. armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on the Department of Defense’s Artificial Intelligence Structure, Investments, and Applications with Lisa Porter, Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, and Dana Deasy, Pentagon Chief Information Officer. armedservices.house.gov 4:30 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. A National Security Crisis Lecture with Sen. Jon Kyl. heritage.org WEDNESDAY | DEC. 12 8 a.m. 2401 M St. NW. Defense Writers Group Breakfast with Rep. Adam Smith. 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Readiness with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant; and Vice Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations. armed-services.senate.gov 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Subcommittee Hearing on Implications of China’s Presence and Investment in Africa. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Association of the United States Army Job Fair. ausa.org 10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How should the transatlantic alliance counter Russian aggression? brookings.edu 10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Full Committee Hearing on Development, Diplomacy, and Defense: Promoting U.S. Interests in Africa. foreignaffairs.house.gov 11 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Why Do Russia and the US Need Each Other: Foreign Policy and National Identity. wilsoncenter.org 3:30 p.m. Rayburn 2118. Subcommittee Hearing on Security Clearance Processing Status Report with Garry Reid, Director for Defense Intelligence; Dan Payne, Director of Defense Security Service; and Charles Phalen, Director of the National Background Investigations Bureau. armed-services.senate.gov 4 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Our Uncertain Nuclear Future: How Do We Proceed if Treaties are Trashed? stimson.org THURSDAY | DEC. 13 8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr. Hypersonics Senior Executive Series with Deputy Defense Secretary Pat Shanahan and Under Secretary Michael Griffin. ndia.org 9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Targeted Sanctions on Human Rights Abusers and Kleptocracies: Lessons Learned and Opportunities from the Global Magnitsky Sanctions with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org 9:30 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. National Security Advisor John Bolton to Unveil Trump Administration Africa Strategy. heritage.org 9:30 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. How Can U.S. Foreign Policymakers Do Better for the Middle Class? carnegieendowment.org 2:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Humanitarian and National Security Crisis in Yemen: An Update and Path Forward with Sen. Todd Young. csis.org 3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. U.S. Force Posture in North Central Europe: Adapting to Strategic Realities. atlanticcouncil.org 5 p.m. Book Launch of “Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict” with Author Jacob Shapiro. csis.org 5 p.m. 700 F St. NW. Cocktails and Conversation – The Human Machine Team: The Analyst of Today and Tomorrow. defenseone.com FRIDAY | DEC. 14 6:45 a.m. 1250 South Hayes St. Special Topic Breakfast with Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. navyleague.org 9 a.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW. 2018 Cato Institute Surveillance Conference. cato.org TUESDAY | DEC. 18 9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. Mitchell Hour AFWIC and Future Force Design with Maj. Gen. Clint Crosier, Director of Air Force Warfighting Integration Capability. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. U.S. China 2018 Year in Review: A New Cold War? wilsoncenter.org |
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