Senior Republicans in Georgia and Ohio are preparing for mischievous forces loyal to President Trump to mount primary challenges against Govs. Brian Kemp and Mike DeWine, angry they rebuffed the outgoing commander in chief’s claims of a stolen election.
Georgia’s Kemp is under assault from Trump after declining to halt the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the state, the first for a Democrat since 1992. Kemp lacked the authority to intervene. That has not stopped the president from accusing the governor of abetting massive voter fraud and costing him Georgia’s crucial Electoral College votes. Pro-Trump Republicans are scheming to oust Kemp in the 2022 primary, an effort likely to accelerate in January.
Trump is also out for revenge against DeWine. The president cruised in Ohio on Nov. 3. But DeWine publicly recognized Biden as president-elect soon after media outlets projected his Electoral College victory, undercutting Trump’s election conspiracy allegations. As with Kemp, the president responded by threatening to cut short DeWine’s political career. That has encouraged pro-Trump forces in a very pro-Trump state to plot against the governor, with an eye toward the midterm primary.
Trump is leaving office as popular as ever with the sort of grassroots Republicans who are reliable primary voters. Yet, political insiders in Georgia and Ohio predict efforts to block Kemp and DeWine from renomination will fail, amounting to nothing more than a nuisance. Republicans do not dismiss the president’s ability to foment rebellions. But having been gone from the White House for more than a year by then, they are skeptical he would succeed.
“I really just think this fades even if the president keeps agitating, in large part, because Kemp has handled COVID issues so well,” said Erick Erickson, a conservative talk radio host in Macon, Georgia, who broadcasts statewide. “He’s got a base of support big enough to win a primary.”
Trump’s endorsement propelled Kemp to victory in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. A Republican operative involved in that contest said he went from 4 percentage points down before Trump’s backing to 30 points up within a week. But Republicans believe Kemp is strong enough politically to overcome opposition from Trump in his bid for renomination, in part because of his network of committed grassroots supporters from across the state that he has cultivated over two decades.
Republicans view Ohio through the same lens. Rejecting DeWine in the GOP primary would require an appealing challenger backed by an aggressive, competent campaign — plus concentrated attention from Trump, although the governor is not invulnerable. Frank LaRose, Ohio’s Republican secretary of state, is mentioned as a potential DeWine challenger.
“Mike DeWine has been in public [life] for close to 45 years and never lost a primary,” said Nick Everhart, a Republican operative in Columbus, Ohio. “I don’t think it’s honestly realistic or likely that we’re going to see well-orchestrated challenges to [DeWine] backed and aided by President Trump, and that’s what it would take for them to have a chance.”
To the extent DeWine could be in trouble in the 2022 primary, small business owners frustrated by his handling of the coronavirus could be a bigger headache for him than Trump. Voters have broadly been satisfied with the governor’s management of the pandemic. But small businesses, whose owners are a pillar of the GOP donor community, have been hard hit by economic lockdowns and other limitations on public gathering.
DeWine spokesman Daniel Tierney sidestepped questions about Trump’s criticism of the governor, saying only that his boss has a good working relationship with the president and was proud to serve as co-chairman of his reelection campaign in Ohio. On the coronavirus, Tierney said DeWine has worked with the business community to develop policies that save lives while doing as little economic damage as possible to employers.
“A lot of the protocols put into place were developed in consultation with businesses,” Tierney said.
Despite his uncommonly loyal political base, Trump is not undefeated when endorsing in competitive Republican primaries. Meanwhile, it is unclear how much juice he will have with the broader Republican primary electorate as an ex-president. Candidate quality often matters most, and in that regard, it will be difficult to handicap the outcome of gubernatorial primaries in Georgia and Ohio until challengers emerge.
In Georgia, the name mentioned most often at this early stage is outgoing Rep. Doug Collins.
Collins helped lead Trump’s effort to reverse the outcome of the presidential election in the Peach State and has an acrimonious relationship with Kemp. The governor selected Sen. Kelly Loeffler over Collins when he made the appointment to fill the seat left vacant by Johnny Isakson, who resigned from the Senate for health reasons. Collins challenged Loeffler in the special election held to determine a permanent successor to Isakson but failed to advance.
Collins and other Kemp antagonists are not expected to make any decisions about 2022 until the conclusion of two critical Jan. 5 runoff elections. Democrats would win control of the Senate by virtue of Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote if Loeffler and Republican Sen. David Perdue fall to their Democratic challengers. Kemp, whose approval ratings among GOP voters have tumbled, is girding for a fight.
A spokesman for Kemp did not respond to an email requesting comment.
