Russia must lose its
war in Ukraine
if the United States is to restore a semblance of order to what used to be called the international order. But Russia must not lose the war too badly if the U.S. is to achieve its strategic goals. The assault on Ukraine is about more than energy politics or a Cold War grudge. It is an attempt to permanently overturn the world’s post-1945 balance. This is why the Biden administration had to respond. The alternative, which is what we’re now getting, would be to exacerbate a spiral of instability and pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
In late May, Henry Kissinger warned that if negotiations did not restart “in the next two months” (by the end of July), then we risked “upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome.” This is what we are now seeing. We are entering a gray area of contradictory and incomplete understandings. Russian President
Vladimir Putin
warns that he will use nuclear weapons if foreign troops enter Russian territory, but the definition of Russian territory is no longer clear. He might consider the annexed areas of eastern and southern Ukraine to be Russian territory, but no one else does. Or does the U.S. now tacitly accept permanent Russian control of Crimea?
In the spring, Russia’s failure to defeat Ukraine in a few days passed the initiative to the U.S. Russia is now losing so badly that, paradoxical as it sounds, control of the strategic initiative is returning to Putin. The Ukrainians are suddenly winning so much that they are forcing the situation into a new paradigm. The greater the breakthroughs that Ukrainian troops make, the greater the incentive for Putin to break out.
PUTIN WILL DIE IF RUSSIA USES NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGAINST UKRAINE: ZELENSKY
As the U.S. loses control over the war, the debate in Washington takes a Dr. Strangelove turn. The talk is no longer about constructing “off-ramps” and a negotiated exit from the war that serves U.S. global strategy. It’s about second-guessing Putin’s threshold for detonating a low-yield nuke or firing rockets into NATO territory. It’s about strategies for direct military retaliation against Russia. It’s about the most stupid and dangerous thing the U.S. could do.
That we have come to the sober contemplation of the first use of nuclear weapons since 1945 shows how far the U.S. has mismanaged the Ukraine war. We are supposed to be restoring a balance of power, not fighting a nuclear-armed state on its historic doorstep. Instead of discussing how to get to negotiations, we have Gen. David Petraeus advising that if Russia detonates a low-yield battlefield nuke, the U.S. should sink the Black Sea fleet and bomb Russian air bases. We have reached this pass not just through the usual mission creep, but also through the Democrats’ creepy sense of mission against Russia, the alleged source of all their electoral woes. This, in turn, exacerbates the traditional Russian policy of nuclear escalation.
The Biden administration is leading Americans and their European allies into a fog of war and overreach. The French will not support the sinking of the Black Sea fleet. The Germans will not support a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis on their doorstep. The British might have supported both under Boris Johnson, but like everyone else in Western Europe, they’re now more worried about a tanking economy and whether they’ll be able to keep the lights on this winter.
So far, the Biden administration can claim it has successfully revitalized NATO and toughened the European Union. Western resolve will dissolve as the winter energy bills arrive. If Putin delivers on the nuclear threat or expands the war into NATO territory, the Western alliance will crack. The Biden administration’s pursuit of conflict over negotiation is, by its success, incentivizing Putin to change the conflict’s parameters in ways that will erase America’s strategic gains and leave NATO and Europe more exposed to future aggressions.
Putin is a judoka. He chose Ukraine as the pivot for overthrowing NATO in Europe. He seems to have expected a quick win, but he has recovered his footing and is now using his opponents’ force against them. Balance-of-power politics requires the balanced use of power. The Biden administration is stumbling forward with ever greater violence and ever diminishing vision.
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The Kissinger formula, a return to February’s status quo ante, remains the only sane and sensible option. For the U.S. to restore the Western alliance, Putin must be allowed to cover the failure of his military assets with a fig leaf of victory. The cost of containing Russia will be paid in Ukrainian territory, just as the Ukrainians have paid the cost of their freedom in lives. Zelensky will cry foul, but then, Zelensky wants Ukraine to join NATO now. That would prolong the war, draw the U.S. into direct conflict with Russia, and prevent the restoration of balance in Europe in a way that security guarantees to postwar Ukraine would not. A great power follows its interests and is not led by its friends.
Dominic Green is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a fellow of the Royal Historical Society. Find him on Twitter @drdominicgreen.
