Marine Gen. Joseph Dunford, coming to the end of his term as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is wrestling with one of the most vexing problems of his almost 42 years in uniform: how to save the crucial U.S. alliance with Turkey when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems intent on killing it.
Dunford has made a dozen visits to Ankara to try to iron out differences with Turkey over everything from protecting the Kurds in Syria to Erdogan’s increasingly cozy relations with Russia.
Now Erdogan’s insistence on buying Russia’s S-400 air defense system has brought the strained relationship close to a breaking point.
The Pentagon has already put Turkey on notice that if it completes its purchase of advanced Russian air defenses, it won’t be getting any F-35 joint fighters, and Turkish companies could be dropped as one of the international partners that help build the stealthy plane.
No one has worked harder than Dunford to try to convince the NATO ally that it would be making a big mistake picking the Russian S-400 missile system over the most advanced fighter bomber ever made. But so far his personal relationship with the Turkish military has done little to pull Erdogan back.
“This issue, the S-400, is a tough issue and we’re having a hard time,” Dunford said at a forum at the Atlantic Council in Washington Thursday.
Dunford picked his words carefully, mindful of Turkey’s importance to the U.S. and NATO, and the need for Turkish help if the U.S. is going to keep ISIS at bay in Syria once U.S. troops are gone.
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“Turkey’s an ally, a very important ally, and we have many more areas of convergence than divergence,” Dunford said. “So as we look at five, 10 years down the road, I want to make very sure that our Turkish allies are close to us.”
The problem is that despite entreaties from both Dunford and Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, NATO’s supreme commander who is also retiring, Erdogan refuses to budge.
There is no chance the U.S. will allow Turkey to fly F-35s alongside Russian-made defenses designed to shoot them down.
“If in a potential future conflict with Russia we’re going to have American F-35s going against S-400s, and if you co-locate the F-35 next to an S-400, you’re going to give Moscow daily opportunities to rehearse detecting and shooting down American F-35s,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Military and Political Power.
“We know that the Air Force, the Navy, and the Marine Corps all are going to be using the F-35, and if Moscow has opportunities on a daily or weekly basis to see what the radar signature looks like of the F-35 and to basically plug the computer of the S-400, if you will, into the computer of the F-35. Given the importance of F-35 to the broader situational awareness of American fighting forces, that is just a horrible thing.”
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Scaparrotti told Congress earlier this month that he has recommended holding off on delivery of two Turkish F-35s that are still in the U.S. for pilot training.
“I do believe that we shouldn’t provide F-35s if there’s an S-400 in Turkey,” Scaparrotti said in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, even as he stressed the importance of maintaining the alliance.
“We work with them every day. I know their leaders well and our intent is to maintain them as an important ally and NATO ally into the future.”
Dunford conceded neither the White House nor Congress will permit what would amount to a gift to the Russians and a massive breach of national security. The bigger question is, can this marriage be saved?
“It’s a tough issue,” repeated Dunford. “Our position has been made very clear to Turkey, and we’re hopeful that we can find a way through this.”
Bowman is not so sure.
“I am not optimistic. I think we should try to do all that we can to save the relationship, but it appears that Erdogan has made his strategic decision,” he said. “Unfortunately, I think that decision is counter to American interests and the interests of the Turkish people.”
