President Trump’s funding complaints befuddle NATO

“When we speak about NATO, it’s not just about money,” French President Emmanuel Macron pushed back against Trump in their joint appearance. “The first burden we share, the first stock we pay is our soldiers’ lives,” Macron said pointing out that France, which is just below the 2% goal, is one of the countries with troops on the ground with the U.S. “When I look at the situation in Syria and Iraq, France is definitely present.”

IT’S WHAT THE MONEY BUYS: While spending 2% on the military is one measure of each nation’s commitment to its own defense, the goals adopted by NATO members in 2014 included a second, arguably more important pledge to spend at least 20% on equipment. If, for example, a country meets its 2% goal by spending money on military pensions, that does nothing to increase NATO’s warfighting capabilities.

Bulgaria’s agreement to purchase eight Lockheed Martin F-16s pushed its numbers for 2019 to 3.25% of GDP, and 59% on equipment. But what really counts is if Bulgaria’s fleet of F-16s are manned by trained pilots able to fly real-word missions, shouldering some of the burden now carried by countries like the U.S., the U.K., France, Germany, and Canada.

On this measure NATO countries are doing considerably better. While nine countries (including the U.S) meet the 2% goal, 17 meet the 20% goal for equipment.

IT’S NOT ABOUT HIM: “Look at this gentleman. When I came in, I was angry at NATO. And now I’ve raised $130 billion,” Trump bragged yesterday in one of his many impromptu news conferences.

Trump continues to push a narrative where nothing was happening until he arrived on the scene. “It was going down for close to 20 years. If you look at a chart, it was like a rollercoaster down, nothing up.”

It is true that the over-reliance on U.S. military might led many European countries to allow their militaries to atrophy. But the problem was addressed in 2014 at NATO’s Wales summit, when the spending goals were set, and countries were given 10 years, until 2024, to meet it. Since then NATO spending has been steadily rising, beginning before Trump’s election in 2016.

But NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is happy to give much of the credit to Trump, knowing full well that its an easy way to tell the American president what he wants to hear. Now Trump believes Stoltenberg is one of his biggest fans.

IT’S NOT ABOUT BACK DUES: Trump’s latest complaint, which he raised several times yesterday, is that it’s not enough for NATO countries to spend more now, but they need to make up for past underspending, labeling the laggards “delinquent.”

“For instance, if you have a country that’s paying only 1%,” Trump argues. “Now we go to a new year and they don’t pay, and now we go to yet another year and they don’t pay. Well, now, I ask you, do they have to pay for the back years, OK? Now, so why is it that they owe us for this year, but every time a new year comes out, they don’t have to pay? It’s wrong. It’s not right.”

But defense spending is not like dues or rent, where countries are in arrears. What’s past is past, and what counts is now. It’s pointless to try to go back in time, and increase readiness retroactively

THE MONEY DOESN’T GO TO NATO: Plus this is money that countries spend on themselves, not remit to NATO. There are no back payments to be made, only new funds for new investments in current military capabilities.

THE US DOESN’T PAY MORE WHEN OTHERS SPEND LESS: Unlike the situation in South Korea or Japan where Trump is asking allies to foot more of the bill to host U.S. troops, the level of defense spending by NATO nations has little to no effect on the U.S. defense budget.

If Trump gets South Korea to pay the U.S. $5 billion a year to offset the cost of keeping 28,500 American troops forward deployed, the U.S. saves that money. But if NATO countries spend $5 billion more, the U.S. is not going to shave $5 billion from its budget.

What it does do is relieve the U.S. of having to to most of the heavy lifting in the event of a military operation.

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Today is the second and final day of the NATO Leaders Meeting in London.

“I expect Leaders to address a wide range of issues when they meet here later on today: the fight against terrorism, arms control, our relationship with Russia and for the first time in NATO’s history we will also sit down with the NATO Leaders and address the rise of China,” said Secretary General Jens Stolenberg as he arrived for the first session of the morning. “And of course also Leaders will address many other issues including readiness of our forces, space as operational domain and also resilience of our critical infrastructure, including 5G.”

TAKING GERMANY TO TASK, GIVING CANADA A PASS: President Trump was to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel today, a day after he threatened Germany and other members who have yet to meet the 2% spending standard with unspecified economic measures.

“Maybe we — as I said, we’ll deal with them on trade. We have a lot of power with respect to trade. They make a fortune with the United States and then they don’t pay their bills. That’s no good.”

Germany’s $54 billion defense budget is at 1.38% of GDP, while Canada’s $22 billion budget is at 1.31%. But sitting next to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Treudeau, Trump was willing to give America’s neighbor to the north a pass.

“Slightly delinquent, I’d say, Canada. But they’ll be OK. I have confidence. Just slightly delinquent, but not a major delinquent,” Trump said, but when it comes to Germany: “They’re starting to come along. They have to. They have to. Otherwise, if they don’t want to, I’ll have to do something with respect to trade.”

PAY UP, OR MAYBE WE DON’T SHOW UP: Trump also ruffled a few feathers with his suggestion that maybe if countries don’t spend their fair share, the U.S. would not feel compelled to defend them if attacked, the bedrock principle of the alliance.

“If there’s a country that’s delinquent, as you put it, in paying for their defense spending, would you commit, as president of the United States, to defend them if they were attacked?” a repioter asked.

“Well, you know, I’m going to be discussing that today. And it’s a very interesting question, isn’t it?,” Trump replied.

MACRON FACT CHECKS TRUMP: In his appearance with Trump, French President Macron disputed Trump’s contention that Turkey was forced to buy non-compliant Russian S-400 air defenses because President Barack Obama refused to sell him American Patriot missiles.

Macrom pointed out that Europe offered to sell Turkey SAMP/T air defense systems made by France and Italy, which Turkey turned down. “It’s their own decision, even having a European option totally compliant with NATO. So they decided not to be compliant with NATO,” Macron said.

The sale of U.S. Patriots fell through over Turkey’s demands to also produce the Patriot domestically, which would have required a transfer of technology the U.S. was not willing to do. The Russian deal included a joint venture to produce future missiles.

WHITHER NATO? The occasion of the 70th anniversary of the NATO, and Macron’s assertion that it is suffering brain death, have revived the decades long debate about whether the alliance has finally outlived its usefulness.

“Macron is right about NATO’s brain death. NATO is now a zombie alliance. He also is right about the policy solution—the creation of an independent European military capability through the EU as a successor,” writes Ted Galen Carpenter, Cato Institute senior fellow and author of NATO: The Dangerous Dinosaur. “Instead of spouting increasingly irrelevant clichés about transatlantic solidarity, the NATO summit attendees should begin the important transition to a post-NATO world.”

ON THE OTHER HAND: “It is worth remembering that NATO is unquestionably the most successful military alliance in history,” argues Rep. Mac Thornberry, top Republican on the House Armed Services Committee.

“As with any organization, NATO can always be improved and updated, but before anyone signals its ‘brain death’ we should all take stock of the tremendous benefits that have flowed from its founding 70 years ago and resolve to stay committed to NATO and to its ideals,” Thornberry said in a statement. “No country has benefited more from NATO and its effects than the United States. Americans are safer, freer, and more prosperous because of it.”

NDAA HUNG UP: Members of Congress are getting anxious about the failure to come to a bipartisan agreement to pass the National Defense Authorization Act for this fiscal year which started two months ago.

“The NDAA still seems to be hung up,” said Majority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell yesterday. , “The way for this to go forward is for it to be relatively free of issues that are unrelated to the Department of Defense. That’s the way we’ve done it since 1961 and I hope we can keep doing it this year.”

But Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer says Democrats want election security provisions added to the annual defense policy bill. “When you’re talking about American security, there’s probably nothing more important, other than life and limb, than securing our elections and making sure they’re fair, making sure that a foreign power doesn’t intervene,” Schumer said.

“And the window to address election security is getting smaller and smaller. Given that Vladimir Putin’s disinformation campaign to deflect blame from — for interfering in the 2016 election has infiltrated not only the Trump White House but the Senate Republican Conference, the need for meaningful reform to secure our elections couldn’t be greater.”

MILITARY HOUSING REFORM: One the initiatives delayed by the holdup in passing the NDAA is new protections for families living in privatized military housing. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday, in which all the service secretaries and service chiefs appeared, there were more horror stories about conditions at base housing

Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine related his firsthand experience when he accompanied Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy to Fort Belvoir in Northern Virginia to inspect some newer housing.

“In one house we saw a family who were repeatedly told that they didn’t have a mold problem. The husband has some carpentry skills and he could remove some molding around a shower and find that, no, indeed there was mold. And so he was being told that there wasn’t a problem when there was,” Kaine said.

“A second family was having their home repaired. The spouse noticed that they weren’t bringing any new insulation into the home. They were supposed to clear out a mold situation and put in new insulation. They told her they had done it. She noticed that no new insulation had been brought into the home. And she said, ‘Open the wall; I think you’re lying to me.’” Kaine said. “And the wall was opened up and the old installation that was dirty had been put back in and it was already soaking wet because not only had they not put in new insulation, they hadn’t fixed the water problem behind the wall.”

Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett told the committee a new “bill of rights” for Air Force personnel living in privatized military housing was on hold pending passage of the NDAA. “We’re ready to go, could’ve issued it earlier, but don’t want to issue something today that then lies in contrast with what the NDAA might come out with.”

BAD MANNERS: Some of NATO heads of state, including British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, French President Macron, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg were caught on camera commiserating about President Trump wreaking havoc with the tightly choreographed schedule by holding extended q-and-a sessions at events that were supposed to be brief photo ops.

“That’s why you were late?” Johnson can be heard saying to Macron. Justin Trudeau says he could see people’s jaws dropping as Trump went on for 40 minutes. The four leaders could be seen on a pool video laughing about the awkward moments.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘Incredibly qualified women’: Trudeau touts gender equality when asked about NATO spending shortfall

Washington Examiner: Mold, rats, and rot: Senators slam ‘slum lords’ for conditions at private housing on military bases

Breaking Defense: Trump Mulls Turkey Sanctions As Senate Grows Impatient

Reuters: U.S. And Russia Want A New Treaty On Nuclear Weapons – Trump

Defense News: NATO Struggles With Its China Conundrum

South China Morning Post: How China Is Replacing U.S. As Thailand’s Main Defence Partner And Arms Supplier

AP: Kim Again Rides Horse Up Sacred Peak As Nuke Deadline Nears

Air Force Magazine: Lockheed Martin Gets $988.8 Million ARRW Contract Modification

Breaking Defense: Israel Asks Trump To Withhold TOWs, Drones From Lebanese Military Aid

Washington Post: North Korea just opened its socialist ‘utopia’ town. Similar endeavors elsewhere are crumbling away.

Breaking Defense: Griffin: DoD Can’t Rely on Commercial Satellite Communications

Task & Purpose: Opinion: Pardoning war criminals will hurt US troops deployed overseas. I know from experience

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 4

8 a.m. 2201 G St. N.W. — Defense Writers Group breakfast with John Rood, the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/

8:45 a.m. 701 North Fairfax St., Alexandria — Defense Strategies Institute Space Resiliency Summit,” with John Hill, principal director for space policy in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Lt. Gen. David Thompson, vice commander of Air Force Space Command; Maj. Gen. Clinton Crosier, director of the Air Force Space Force Planning Task Force; 701 North Fairfax Street, Alexandria, Va. http://space.dsigroup.org

10 a.m. 106 Dirksen. — Senate Armed Services Seapower Subcommittee and Readiness and Management Support Subcommittee joint hearing on “United States Navy Ship and Submarine Maintenance,” with James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development, and acquisition; Navy Vice Adm. Thomas Moore, commander of the Naval Sea Systems Command; and Diana Maurer, director of defense capabilities and management at the Government Accountability Office. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. N.W. — SETA Foundation discussion on “What’s Happening in Iran?: Popular Protests and the U.S. Policy,” with Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative; Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute; Sina Toossi, senior research analyst at the National Iranian American Council; and Kadir Ustun, executive director of SETA. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/whats-happening-in-iran

11:30 a.m. CVC-268, U.S. Capitol — Atlantic Council discussion on “U.S. Strategic Interests in Ukraine,” with Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn.; Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.; Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.; and Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/us-strategic-interests-in-ukraine/

2:30 p.m. 222, Russell — Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing on “Service Member, Family, and Veteran Suicides and Prevention Strategies,” with Karin Orvis, director, Defense Suicide Prevention Office; and Navy Capt. Michael Colston, director, Defense Mental Health Programs. Live streamed on https://www.defense.gov

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 5

8:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on “Restoring Civil-Military Relations,” with House Armed Services Chairman Rep. Adam Smith, D-Wash.; and Mackenzie Eaglen, resident fellow at AEI. Livestream at http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream

8:45 a.m. 701 N Fairfax St., Alexandria -— Defense Strategies Institute holds its 2019 Space Resiliency Summit,” with Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency; and Air Force Col. Eric Felt, director of the Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate. http://space.dsigroup.org

9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen. — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing “Strategic Threats, Ongoing Challenges, and National Defense Strategy Implementation,” with John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy; and Air Force Lt. Gen. David Allvin, director for strategy, plans and policy, joint staff. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

9:30 a.m. 779 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion on “NATO, Transatlantic Security, and the Future of Arms Control,” with former NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller; and former Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, president of CEIP http://carnegieendowment.org/

12 p.m. 1800 K St., N.W. — Korea Economic Institute of America discussion on “Shifting the Burden: The U.S.-Korea Alliance Amid Washington’s New Approach to Military Cost-Sharing,” with former South Korean Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Song Min-soon; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens, president and CEO of KEI; retired Army Gen. Walter “Skip” Sharp, former commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea; James Kim, senior research fellow in the Asan Institute for Policy Studies’ Center for Public Opinion Research; and Kyle Ferrier, fellow and academic affairs director at KEI. http://www.keia.org/event/shifting-burden

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 6

8:30 a.m. 1624 Crescent Pl. N.W. — Meridian International Center, the University of Michigan’s Weiser Diplomacy Center and the National Security Policy Center forum on defense and diplomacy in Afghanistan, with Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Texas; Lisa Curtis, senior director for South and Central Asia at the National Security Council; Afghan Ambassador to the United States Roya Rahmani; former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Anne Patterson; retired Army Gen. John Nicholson, former commander of the Resolute Support Mission; Javid Ali, policymaker in residence at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy and former senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council; Laurel Miller, director of the Crisis Group’s Asia Program and former acting special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the State Department; Peter Bergen, national security analyst at CNN; Melanne Verveer, executive director of the Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security; and Stuart Holliday, president and CEO of the Meridian International Center

12 p.m. 1957 E St. N.W. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies forum on “The Crisis that Has Defied Five Presidents: Covering the North Korean Nuclear Program for Three Decades,” with David Sanger, national security correspondent for the New York Times; and Yonho Kim, associate director of the GWU Institute for Korean Studies http://elliott.gwu.edu

12:15 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. — The American Security Project discussion on “A New American Message: A Discussion on U.S. Rhetoric,” with former Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel; Mohamed Younis, editor-in-chief of Gallup News; Dokhi Fassihian, executive director of Reporters Without Borders; and Matthew Wallin, director of research on public diplomacy and strategic communications at ASP. https://www.americansecurityproject.org/event

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13

9 a.m. 1301 K St. N.W. — Washington Post Live conversation with former Defense Secretary retired Gen. Jim Mattis with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius.