Daily on Defense — Oct. 27, 2016 — Two top al-Qaida leaders targeted

Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command has revealed that U.S. drones took out five al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula terrorists last Friday in a remote area of Yemen, as the U.S. counterterrorism mission against AQAP continues to fly just below the radar.

RAQQA CAN’T WAIT: You couldn’t miss the urgency in the voice of U.S. counter-Islamic State commander Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend when he was briefing reporters at the Pentagon yesterday from Baghdad. Townsend said the assault on the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Raqqa, Syria, can’t wait for the fall of Mosul in Iraq. He seemed to be channeling Donald Rumsfeld’s famous adage, “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you hope to have in the future,” when Townsend said “I think we need to go pretty soon. And I think that we’ll go with the forces that can go on the timeline that we need.” Townsend said two factors were driving the short timeline: intelligence that the Islamic State is planning an external attack from its base in Raqqa, and the desire to prevent ISIS fighters fleeing Mosul to regroup in Raqqa. Townsend says Turkey wants to take part, but he also said the local forces that will go into Raqqa will be Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes Kurdish YPG militia. Turkey has been attacking that group in the north, so don’t count on it. As for timing, Townsend said simply, “soon.”

TRUMP THE MILITARY STRATEGIST: One can only imagine what Donald Trump will say about the latest U.S. general telegraphing future offensive operations to the enemy. In an interview with ABC, Trump again insisted he knows more about battlefield strategy than the generals, or in this case the former dean of the Army War College Jeff McCausland. Trump seemed to think the objective of the Mosul campaign was to capture senior Islamic State leaders and that by sacrificing the element of surprise, the U.S. and Iraq let them all get away.  That kind of talk prompted McCausland to tell the New York Times: “What this shows is Trump doesn’t know a damn thing about military strategy.” In the ABC interview, Trump told George Stephanopoulos “You can tell your military expert that I’ll sit down and I’ll teach him a couple of things.” The actual objective of the Mosul campaign is to free Iraq’s second largest city from the brutal rule by Islamic State terrorists. If they all fled in advance of the Iraqi offensive, it would be a victory in itself and spare the city and its residents from the death and destruction that seems sure to come.

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre), National Security Writer Jacqueline Klimas (@jacqklimas) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll be sure to add you to our list.

Want to learn more about Daily on Defense? See our introductory video here.

IT’S NOT OVER: The Pentagon is not promising to end its effort to recoup enlistment bonuses and educational benefits improperly bestowed on almost 2,000 California National Guard members. What it is pledging is a revamped, streamlined appeals process that will give the soldiers the benefit of any doubt. But officials are adamant about two things: There is no need for Congress to act; and there can be no blanket amnesty because not all of the soldiers who were forced to repay the bonuses were innocent victims.

Peter Levine, acting undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, attempted to sort of the numbers. An Army audit, he said, found that 14,000 members of the California Guard got bonuses. Of that number, about 4,000 were considered legit, the other 10,000 or so were questionable, and of that pool, collection proceedings were initiated against 1,900. Levine says the only way to clear this up is to go through the cases individually because some of the soldiers were well aware of the criminal scam to funnel illegal benefits.

In his order to temporarily suspend collections while that new appeals process is put in place, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said “While some soldiers knew or should have known they were ineligible for benefits they were claiming, many others did not.” Officials kept pointing to a series of reports by the Sacramento Bee in 2010 for a greater understanding of the extent of the misconduct and fraudulent activity, and to show why it’s reluctant to just forgive and forget.

Here’s an excerpt: “California’s incentives program was operated as a slush fund, doled out improperly to hundreds of soldiers with fabricated paperwork, scant supervision and little regard for the law. … Most student loan repayments, those documents show, were drawn from money designated for combat vets. Yet a large portion of those funds went to Guard members who hadn’t served a day at war. Captains and majors were among those who auditors believe improperly benefited.”

A LEGISLATIVE FIX: Despite the Pentagon’s protestations that it’s got a handle on the Guard mess, leaders of the House Armed Services Committee said Wednesday that the fiscal 2017 National Defense Authorization Act currently in conference between the House and Senate will likely include language to solve the problem of California National Guardsmen receiving bonuses erroneously. “We are working on a solution now and expect to take action in the FY17 NDAA. Congress must act to give them the peace of mind they have earned,” Rep. Mac Thornberry and Rep. Adam Smith said in a statement.

ANTI-DRONE DEMAND: Rep. Duncan Hunter on Wednesday sent a letter to the Air Force asking the service to fast-track technology to counter terrorist drones, which have been seen in combat over the past week and could also be used in attacks against the homeland, the California Republican said. Jean-Charles Ledé, a program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, said at the Unmanned Systems Defense conference that the Pentagon’s innovative office is putting out a request for proposals any day now to work on a Mobile Force Protection system to defeat multiple self-guided small aerial drones. The request for information went out this year.

WORST FEARS REALIZED: The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee said news that Iran is demanding at least $4 million for the safe return of a U.S. permanent resident confirms his fears that the Obama administration’s huge cash payment to Tehran in January is encouraging Iran to take more hostages, Susan Crabtree writes. “Just as I feared, the Iranian regime now has more American hostages and wants more money,” Rep. Ed Royce told the Washington Examiner Wednesday. “The Obama administration’s $1.7 billion cash payment to Iran wasn’t just bad policy — it put additional lives at risk. … Iran should release all American hostages immediately and unconditionally.”

CHILDREN KILLED: At least 22 people in a village in Syria’s rebel-held Idlib province were killed by Russian airstrikes, including seven children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Kelly Cohen writes. The Observatory said several locations in the Haas village were struck, including an elementary and middle school, killing at least one teacher in addition to the seven children.

That led the head of the United Nations’ children’s agency, UNICEF, to call for a stop to such attacks, Anna Giaritelli writes. “This is a tragedy. It is an outrage. And if deliberate, it is a war crime,” Anthony Lake, UNICEF’s executive director, said in a statement. “Children lost forever to their families … teachers lost forever to their students … one more scar on Syria’s future. When will the world’s revulsion at such barbarity be matched by insistence that this must stop?”

BLAME THE ‘KIDDIES:’ The Friday cyberattack on an Internet company that disrupted major websites including Twitter, PayPal and Amazon was probably carried out by low-level hackers referred to as “script kiddies,” according to new research by cybersecurity firm Flashpoint, Rudy Takala reports. “Flashpoint discovered that the infrastructure used in the attack also targeted a well-known video game company,” the company noted. “While there does not appear to have been any disruption of service, the targeting of a video game company is less indicative of hacktivists, state-actors, or social justice communities, and aligns more with the hackers that frequent online hacking forums.”

Q3 EARNINGS WEEK: Three of the top five U.S. defense companies reported their third quarter earnings yesterday. Here are the highlights:

Northrop Grumman reported a 3 percent increase in sales in the third quarter of 2016, from $6 billion over the same time period in 2015 to $6.2 billion this year. Third quarter 2016 net earnings increased 17 percent to $602 million up from $516 million in the third quarter of 2015. Northrop won the B-21 bomber contract this year, and also builds drones for the U.S. military, including the Global Hawk. It is part of the Lockheed Martin-led team building the F-35, which Reuters reported as the cause of the increase in sales.

Boeing reported profits of $2.8 billion on revenue of $23 billion for the third quarter of 2016, a 34 percent increase over the third quarter of last year. That translates to $3.60 per share in the third quarter, compared to $2.47 a share on $1.7 billion in profits a year ago. Boeing, the world’s largest maker of airliners, expects to deliver 745 to 750 commercial jets, an increase of five aircraft over previous projections, which will boost revenues another $500 million to $95.5 billion for the year. Besides commercial jets, Boeing is building the new KC-46 Pegasus tanker and the Unmanned Little Bird H-6U scout helicopter.

Earnings for General Dynamics went up 4.6 percent in the third quarter, from $733 million to $767 million, yet overall revenue dropped from $7.9 billion this time last year to $7.7 billion in the third quarter, a reduction of 3.3 percent. Diluted earnings per share were $2.48, up from $2.28, which was an 8.8 percent increase. Notable orders from the quarter included $300 million for lead-yard services for Virginia-class attack submarines, $235 million for design and engineering for active subs, and $170 million for Army Hydra-70 rockets. The USS Zumwalt stealth destroyer, which was commissioned this month in Baltimore, was built by General Dynamics Bath Iron Works in Maine.

PHILIPPINES BREAK-UP: The Philippines mercurial president, Rodrigo Duterte, is doubling down on his stated desire to “separate” from the United States. In his latest declaration, Duterte says he wants U.S. troops out of the country in the next two years and is prepared to suffer the consequences. The Cato Institute’s Christine Guluzian writes in the Washington Examiner this morning about what the pivot of a long-term U.S. ally portends.

$58 BILLION DOWN THE DRAIN: The Pentagon has spent at least $58 billion over the past two decades on weapons systems that seemed like a good idea at the time, but never made it off the ground, or even off the drawing board. The eye-popping figure is buried in an internal review of the DoD’s acquisition performance. It cites 23 big-ticket weapons programs that were canceled after billions were spent going back to 1997. The biggest boondoggles were the Army’s ill-fated Future Combat System, which accounted for more than $20 billion of the total, and the RAH-66 Comanche reconnaissance/attack helicopter, on which $9.8 billion was invested before the plug was pulled.

TRUMP’S PREDICTION: Trump said Tuesday that Hillary Clinton’s plan for Syria would take the United States into World War III in less than two months if she is elected president, Al Weaver writes. Trump said in an interview with Reuters that the U.S. should focus on defeating the Islamic State rather than getting involved in the Syrian conflict, adding that getting involved there would pit the U.S. against Syria, Russia and Iran. “What we should do is focus on ISIS. We should not be focusing on Syria. You’re going to end up in World War III over Syria if we listen to Hillary Clinton.”

That led White House spokesman Josh Earnest to conclude that Trump is all over the map when it comes to Syria, Susan Crabtree writes. “He’s called for indiscriminate bombing, other times he’s chided his opponent for being too tough on Russia … It’s difficult to discern exactly what he’s advocating for in that interview. When you look at the totality of the remarks, even over the last several months, it’s impossible to figure out if he knows what he is talking about, and even if he does, what policy” he would pursue, Earnest said.

IT’S BEDLAM, BEDLAM I TELL YA! The New York Times has published excerpts from hours of previously unpublished interviews Trump gave to his biographer Michael D’Antonio from 2014. Here’s Trump on women in the military: “Well, I went to a military academy, which was from a different planet. … We didn’t have women in the academy at that time. Today you have women, which is a whole other story, women in the Army and you see what’s going on. It’s like — it’s like bedlam. It is bedlam. … It’s something that people aren’t talking about, but what’s going on is bedlam, bringing women in the Army.” By the way, there was also a time when his running mate Mike Pence wasn’t keen on having women in the military either.

THE RUNDOWN

Marine Corps Times: Marine F/A-18C Hornet crash prompts 24-hour pause in flight operations

Military.com: Aviation Chief: Crash That Killed 12 Shouldn’t Have Happened

Defense One: Why Clinton Gets My Vote, by Former Defense Secretary William Perry

Military.com: The Final Collapse of Obama’s Syrian Policy

Defense News: Sweden and US Should Increase Technological Cooperation: Report

Breaking Defense: Davis: Marines Want VTOL Drone Before FVL

Defense One: CYBERCOM: We’re Ready For War

Army Times: Ten women graduate from the Army’s first integrated infantry officer course

Associated Press: IS driving hundreds into Mosul, using them as human shields

CNN: The Iraqi women who escaped ISIS but lost everything

Wall Street Journal: ISIS Failure in Kirkuk Shows Its Loss of Sunni Arab Support

USNI News: Analysis: Russian Carrier Deployment to Syria is Propaganda, not Practical

Reuters: Britain, U.S. sending planes, troops to deter Russia in the east

UPI: Russia designing new, faster ‘Predator’ torpedo to boost naval power

Calendar

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 27

9 a.m. 1250 S. Hayes St., Arlington, Va. The final day of the Unmanned System’s Defense conference focuses on ground-based drones. thedefenseshow.org

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A representative from the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs provides keynote remarks at an event looking at the cause of conflict in the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org

1:30 p.m. 529 14th St. NW. The Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans released a data-driven assessment of Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal. Press.org

6:30 p.m. Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter accepts the National Defense University Foundation American Patriot Award 2016 on behalf of DoD.

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 28

8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Robert Work, the deputy secretary of the defense, and Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Paul Selva speak about the third offset strategy. csis.org

MONDAY | OCTOBER 31

1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. A panel of experts discusses the relationship among the U.S., Israel and Iran in the wake of the nuclear deal. wilsoncenter.org

2 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Brookings Institution hosts a panel on what nuclear arms choices the next president will face. brookings.edu

TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 1

8:15 a.m. The Brookings Institution hosts its fourth and final podcast recording about preparing for the next president with a look at how the next administration should counter violent extremist. brookings.edu

10 a.m. Pacific. USS Midway Museum, San Diego. Rep. Scott Peters speaks at an event commemorating the beginning of National U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier month. www.aircraftcarrier.com

WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 2

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Rear Adm. Christian Becker, the program executive officer for space systems, talks about the role of space in maritime operations. csis.org

5 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Arnold Punaro launches his new book, On War and Politics: The Battlefield Inside Washington’s Beltway. csis.org

THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 3

9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts discusses the relationship between Russia and the West after the U.S. presidential election. atlanticcouncil.org