WISHFUL THINKING: Former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster is warning against “wishful thinking” in dealing with Iran and arguing that the experience of the nuclear deal revealed that making concessions to Tehran only emboldens Iran to intensify its proxy war in the region.
“Treating Iran as a responsible nation state did not moderate the regime’s behavior. Wishful thinking led to complacency in confronting Iran’s most egregious actions and operations. The Iranian regime took full advantage of that complacency,” McMaster writes in a foreword to a new report out this morning by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which details the “land bridge” Iran is attempting to build connecting Tehran with the Mediterranean.
“Wishful thinking on Iran among policymakers was based, in large measure, on the hope that a conciliatory policy would support moderates who would abandon the ‘Great Satan’ and ‘Death to America’ language and end their decades-long proxy wars,” McMaster writes. “But policymakers should pay more attention to the regime’s actions as the principal means of assessing its intentions.”
The report, “Burning Bridge: The Iranian Land Corridor to the Mediterranean,” reveals Iran’s determination to become the dominant power in the Middle East and warns that full evacuation of U.S. forces from Syria would hand a major strategic victory to Iran by opening a southern route, which would be extremely difficult to close off again.
MORE EVIDENCE: The Pentagon has released a series of 11 still images it says provides further evidence that ties Iran directly to the attacks against two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz last week.
Several of the images taken from a U.S. Navy MH-60R helicopter show members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy in a small patrol boat after allegedly removing an unexploded limpet mine from the Japanese tanker Kokuka Courageous.
Close-up pictures of the tanker’s hull show the magnetic attachment device used to secure the mine to the ship, along with nail holes where the mine was also nailed in place.
“The recent Iranian attacks validate the reliable, credible intelligence we have received on hostile behavior by Iranian forces and their proxy groups that threaten United States personnel and interests across the region,” acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said in a statement.
MORE ‘DEFENSIVE’ TROOPS: In response to a request from U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Frank McKenzie, Shanahan yesterday authorized the deployment of 1,000 additional U.S. troops to the region, which he emphasized are “for defensive purposes” to counter “air, naval, and ground-based threats in the Middle East.”
“The United States does not seek conflict with Iran. The action today is being taken to ensure the safety and welfare of our military personnel working throughout the region and to protect our national interests,” Shanahan said. “We will continue to monitor the situation diligently and make adjustments to force levels as necessary given intelligence reporting and credible threats.”
TRUMP TELLS TIME ATTACKS WERE ‘VERY MINOR’: In an interview with Time yesterday, Trump said he might take military action to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, but he’s not so sure about going to war to protect international oil supplies.
“I would certainly go over nuclear weapons,” Trump told Time, “and I would keep the other a question mark.” He downplayed attacks against commercial shipping, saying, “So far, it’s been very minor.”
He also downplayed the level of hostility coming from the regime in Tehran. “If you look at the rhetoric now compared to the days when they were signing that agreement [the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Trump withdrew from], where it was always ‘death to America, death to America, we will destroy America, we will kill America,’ I’m not hearing that too much anymore,” Trump said. “And I don’t expect to.”
Asked directly if he was considering military action, Trump said, “I wouldn’t say that. I can’t say that at all.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Kelly Jane Torrance (@kjtorrance). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is at U.S. Central Command and Special Operations Command at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida. He’s meeting with CENTCOM commander Gen. Frank McKenzie and SOCOM commander Gen. Richard Clarke “to discuss regional security concerns and ongoing operations.”
LOOMING CONFRONTATION: While President Trump insists he does not want war with Iran and the Pentagon continues to underscore that its military moves are designed to deter Iran and lesson the chances of miscalculation, the concern over the possibility of a military strike is palpable.
“Unfortunately, we are heading toward a confrontation, which is very serious for everybody in the region,” Hamid Baeidinejad, Iran’s ambassador to the U.K., said on CNN yesterday. “I hope that the people in Washington would be very careful not to underestimate the Iranian determination that if they would be wrongly entering into a conflict, they would be very sorry about that, because we are fully prepared, determined by our government and people, our own forces, that we would not be submitting to the will of the United States.”
TO STRIKE OR NOT TO STRIKE: Among the most strident voices is Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., who is calling for the United States to punish Iran with a military response.
“They`re hoping that they can drive up the price of oil and therefore benefit from it, since their oil exports have declined so much, and also get more pressure put on the United States to back off our campaign of maximum pressure,” Cotton said Sunday on CBS. “That’s not going to happen. If anything, we need to increase that pressure. And I think this unprovoked attack on commercial shipping warrants retaliatory military strikes.”
Other lawmakers are urging Trump to consult with Congress before taking any military action. “I agree with the president that we do not want a war with Iran,” said Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, in a statement. “Should Iran continue these nefarious actions, and military action be warranted, Congress must play an integral role in that process, and that should include a briefing by the administration on the matter.”
Still others, such as Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., argue that Trump would need a new authorization for the use of military force from Congress, unless the United States was acting purely in self-defense.
“We had a major debate last week in the Armed Services Committee as we prepared to send to the floor the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act,” Garamendi said on CNN last night. “That debate included Democrats and Republicans being very, very clear that for the president to take offensive action against Iran would require a declaration of war, or as we now call it, an authorization to use military force.”
EARTHQUAKE SCARE: A magnitude 1.3 earthquake recorded on the border between North Korea and China yesterday briefly sparked concerns that North Korea could have conducted a new nuclear test.
China’s earthquake monitoring agency says it suspects an explosion triggered the minor earthquake, in an area where seismic activity has been detected in the past following North Korean nuclear tests, according to the Associated Press.
XI-KIM VISIT: The earthquake happened just as Chinese official media reported President Xi Jinping will travel to North Korea later this week to meet with its leader, Kim Jong Un.
The two-day visit will be the first by a Chinese leader to North Korea in 14 years. Xi is scheduled to meet Kim a week before the G-20 summit in Japan, where he is expected to meet with President Trump.
WHAT’S KIM REALLY THINKING?: Voice of America says it has obtained an official North Korean document that shows Kim Jong Un has no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons but instead has told his military that he would use talks with the United States to solidify North Korea’s status as a nuclear power.
The document is described as “a teaching guide for instructing top military officials on Pyongyang’s official internal position” and was produced before Kim met Trump in Hanoi for a second summit in February. “The document makes clear that Kim saw the meeting in Hanoi to strike ‘a final deal’ as a means to acceptance as a ‘global nuclear strategic state,’” VOA reports.
Kim is quoted as saying he would use the meeting “to further consolidate nuclear power that we have created.”
TRUMP DENIES US CYBER ATTACKS: President Trump is still fuming about the New York Times report over the weekend alleging that the United States government conducted cyber intrusions into Russia’s electric power grid as a warning to President Vladimir Putin and deliberately kept Trump out of the loop.
“The story in the @nytimes about the U.S. escalating attacks on Russia’s power grid is Fake News, and the Failing New York Times knows it,” Trump tweeted last night. “They should immediately release their sources which, if they exist at all, which I doubt, are phony. Times must be held fully accountable!”
The Times cited two administration officials who said that Trump had not been briefed in any detail about the cyber operations for fear “he might countermand it or discuss it with foreign officials.”
The Rundown
Reuters: Kremlin says report on alleged U.S. power grid incursion is worrying
Wall Street Journal: U.S. Sale To Taiwan Clouds Talks With Beijing
AP: Japan Protests Chinese Activity Near Disputed Islands
Talk Media News: Trump’s past bashing of US intelligence becomes Iran’s ally
Washington Post: The U.S. is pouring millions into Somalia despite concerns over dependency on aid
Defense News: U.S. House To Vote On Low-Yield Nukes And Transgender Troops This Week
Air Force Magazine: France, Germany, Spain Unveil New Generation Fighter as US Pushes More F-35s
Business Insider: Turkey unveils new stealth-fighter concept as the US prepares to kick its ally out of the F-35 program
Air Force Magazine: Turkey Still Important Part of F-35 Team, For Now
Air Force Magazine: Lockheed Looking at Extending the F-35’s Range, Weapons Suite
Bloomberg: Lockheed’s F-35 Parts Often Aren’t Ready to Use, Watchdog Finds
The Diplomat: U.S. Warns India Over S-400 Air Defense System Deal With Russia
New York Times: Venezuela’s Collapse Frays Its Economic Ties With Russia
Slate: The Hong Kong Protests Could Be a Prelude to a Big Showdown Over Taiwan
Washington Post: Pence communications director leaving for Lockheed Martin post
Calendar
TUESDAY | JUNE 18
8 a.m. 2401 M Street N.W. Defense Writers Group breakfast with Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, vice chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu
8 a.m. 777 F Street N.W. Council on Foreign Relations discussion with Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, chairwoman of the Senate Armed Services Committee’s Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee on “Defense and Emerging Technology.” Open to media only. www.cfr.org
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. National Defense Industrial Association, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, the Air Force Association, and the Reserve Officers Association forum on “Keeping a National Consensus on Nuclear Policy.” Speaker: John Harvey, former principal deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear, chemical, and biological defense. www.afa.org/hbs
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “The Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy in Southeast Asia: A Status Report on Energy and Infrastructure Initiatives.” www.csis.org/events
12:30 p.m. 1111 19th Street N.W. Washington Institute for Near East Policy discussion on “Assad’s Thinking: How Did Syria Get Here, and Where Does the Regime Want to Go Now?” Speakers: Former U.S. ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and former French ambassador to Syria Michel Duclos. www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy
1:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Avenue N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies hosts a discussion on “Implementing Innovation: The Army’s Intellectual Property (IP) Strategy,” with Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Strategy and Acquisition Reform Alexis Lasselle Ross and Andrew Philip Hunter, director of the CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group. www.csis.org
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 19
9:30 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council East Asia Foundation Strategic Dialogue, with keynote remarks from State Department Special Representative for North Korea Stephen Biegun and Republic of Korea Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Do-hoon Lee. At 2 p.m., Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., and Rep. Ted Yoho, R-Fla., participate in a discussion on “Charting Korea’s Role in U.S.-China Strategic Competition in the Indo-Pacific.” www.atlanticcouncil.org/events
9:45 a.m. 201 Waterfront Street, National Harbor. Essye Miller, principal deputy chief information officer at the Defense Department, participates in a discussion on “Women in Leadership: Movers and Shakers, Ceiling Breakers, Ruckus Makers” at the Gartner Security and Risk Management Summit, which runs from June 17 to 20 at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center. www.gartner.com/en/conferences
10 a.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Newsmaker event with House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. www.press.org/events
11 a.m. 303 Cannon. The Sustainable Defense Task Force releases its new report, “A Sustainable Defense: More Security, Less Spending,” calling for $1.2 trillion in Pentagon budget cuts over the next decade. Speakers: Salih Booker, president, Center for International Policy; William Hartung, Center for International Policy; Mandy Smithberger, Project On Government Oversight; and Neta Crawford, Boston University. www.internationalpolicy.org
6:30 p.m. 1777 F Street, N.W. Council on Foreign Relations conversation with Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff. Moderator: David Rubenstein, chairman, Board of Directors, Council on Foreign Relations. www.cfr.org/event
THURSDAY | JUNE 20
8:30 a.m. 300 First Street S.E. The Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies holds a “Space Power to the Warfighter” seminar on “Space Superiority,” with Air Force Col. Stephen Purdy, director of the Space Missile Systems Center’s Space Superiority Systems Directorate. www.afa.org/hbs
9 a.m. 1030 15th Street N.W. Atlantic Council discussion on “Russian Troops in Venezuela: What Should the United States Do?” Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., delivers keynote remarks. Other speakers include: former undersecretary of state for global affairs Paula Dobriansky; former deputy assistant defense secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Evelyn Farkas; Francisco Monaldi, director of the Atlantic Council’s Latin America Initiative; Konstantin Eggert, columnist for Deutsche Welle; Mark Simakovsky, senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. www.atlanticcouncil.org/events
10 a.m. 310 Cannon. House Homeland Security Committee hearing on DoD’s deployment to the U.S.-Mexican border. Witnesses: Carla Provost, chief, U.S. Border Patrol; Robert Salesses, deputy assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense; Maj. Gen. Michael McGuire, adjutant general for Arizona. homeland.house.gov/hearings
1:45 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Hudson Institute and NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division host an event to discuss the future of the NATO alliance. Speakers include Jamie Fly, German Marshall Fund; Amanda Sloat, Brookings Institution; and Nadia Schadlow, Hudson Institute. Hudson Fellow Peter Rough will moderate. www.hudson.org/events
MONDAY | JUNE 24
12:30 p.m. 529 14th St. N.W. National Press Club Headliners Luncheon with Army Secretary Mark Esper. www.press.org/events
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 26
All day. NATO Headquarters, Brussels. Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan is expected to attend a two-day meeting of NATO defense ministers Wednesday and Thursday. www.nato.int
11:30 a.m. 1667 K Street N.W. Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments discussion of new book “Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy toward Iran,” with coauthors Eric Edelman and Ray Takeyh of CSBA. csbaonline.org/about/events
THURSDAY | JUNE 27
7:30 a.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. N.W. Defense One Tech Summit. Speakers include Ellen Lord, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; William Evanina, director of the national counterintelligence and security center, ODNI; Sue Gordon, principal deputy director of national intelligence, ODNI; Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; and more. www.defenseone.com
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Treating Iran as a responsible nation state did not moderate the regime’s behavior. Wishful thinking led to complacency in confronting Iran’s most egregious actions and operations. The Iranian regime took full advantage of that complacency.”
Former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, in the forward to a new report, “Burning Bridge: The Iranian Land Corridor to the Mediterranean.”
