The results of a recent
New York Times
/
Siena poll
that showed independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with unprecedented support amounted to a political earthquake. The news media did their predictable best to pretend they couldn’t feel the rumbling underfoot, but these results indicate that pundits from across the political spectrum will have no choice but to acknowledge that a major shift has taken place. Kennedy’s bid is no longer a political pipe dream. On the contrary, it appears deadly serious.
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Here are a few takeaways about Kennedy’s candidacy from the poll, which surveyed registered voters in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin:
- He leads President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump among independent voters by double digits.
- He leads Biden and Trump among voters between the ages of 18-34.
- His total support in the swing states is at 24%, which puts him only 9 points behind Biden and 11 points behind Trump.
- He is within single digits of the lead in Arizona and Michigan.
- His support is spread out nearly equally among demographic groups.
Lest anyone attempt to write off the New York Times/Siena poll as an outlier, these numbers correspond with other recent polls, including surveys by
Quinnipiac
and Harvard/Harris, both of which had Kennedy at 22% nationally in a three-way race with Trump and Biden.
Should his support remain comparable through next summer, his third-party bid would rank among the most formidable
since former President Theodore Roosevelt captured 27%
of the national popular vote in 1912 for the Progressive Party.
Long seen as a potential spoiler for Biden’s reelection bid, it remains unclear which major party nominee suffers the most from Kennedy’s presence on this ballot. This would account for the media blackout of the campaign since he announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primary in early October. Neither tribe seems confident of how to best leverage the insurgent third-party candidacy for their benefit, and so they largely behave as though it doesn’t exist.
The Trump campaign and its media surrogates should rightfully worry about Kennedy’s ability to credibly critique his administration’s performance during COVID, particularly his decision to confer unaccountable authority to Dr. Anthony Fauci in the pandemic response. Team Biden should similarly fear his ability to peel off support, since Kennedy was
polling at around 15% in the Democratic primary
before deciding to run as an independent.
But Kennedy’s standing in swing states should begin to shift the perception that he is primarily a spoiler candidate. And given the media’s dismal track record at political prognostication and the persistent unfavorability of the probable major party candidates, it’s possible that Kennedy’s candidacy is even more viable than these polls suggest. Perhaps he isn’t hurting either Trump or Biden so much as helping himself.
Indeed, these polls refute no one more than Kennedy’s own
family members, who accused the environmental lawyer
of waging a “vanity run” for the White House. Whatever one thinks of the man and his ideas —
my own opinions vary
, to say the least — one cannot accuse him of folly in this regard. He’s among a handful of the truly serious heavyweights in politics at present.
As such, voters deserve to have him participate in the presidential debates next fall — indeed, their sentiments in these polls demand it. For a nation mired in a tribalistic discourse, it would be difficult to conceive of anything healthier than to witness a fresh, if unpredictable, voice interact with elderly party figureheads whose axes grind us into ever deeper levels of national acrimony.
Allow me to be among the first to say Kennedy should be allowed to debate the other serious contenders for the presidency — if only to make the major party powers squirm next November.
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Peter Laffin is a contributor at the Washington Examiner. His work has also appeared in RealClearPolitics, the Catholic Thing, and the National Catholic Register.
