President Trump is nearly tied with Joe Biden in a pool of 15 states considered to be the most consequential for deciding the outcome of the 2020 election.
A CNN poll conducted Aug. 12-15 found that among registered voters living in the 15 battleground states, Trump had 48% support, and the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee had 49% support. That result has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
“The pool of battleground states in this poll includes more that Trump carried in 2016 (10) than were won by Hillary Clinton (5), reflecting the reality that the President’s campaign is more on defense than offense across the states,” wrote CNN polling director Jennifer Agiesta. “Taken together, though, they represent a more Republican-leaning playing field than the nation as a whole.”
States included in the poll were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.
While Trump is close behind Biden in the 15 battleground states combined, that does not necessarily mean that he has an Electoral College advantage. Recent polls show that the president trails Biden in many closely watched swing states that could decide the election. RealClearPolitics’s averages of state polls find Biden ahead by 6.5 percentage points in Wisconsin, 5 percentage points in Florida, 6.4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 2 percentage points in Arizona.
Nationally, the CNN poll found the Trump-Pence ticket at 46% support while the Biden-Harris ticket has 50% support, putting Trump right at the edge of the 4-point margin of error.
Trump’s standing has increased 10 points since the last CNN national poll conducted June 2-5, which found Biden with a 14-point lead at 55% and Trump at 41%.
“The movement in the poll among voters nationwide since June is concentrated among men (they split about evenly in June, but now 56% back Trump, 40% Biden), those between the ages of 35 and 64 (they tilt toward Trump now, but were Biden-leaning in June) and independents (in June, Biden held a 52% to 41% lead, but now it’s a near even 46% Biden to 45% Trump divide),” Agiesta wrote.
The battleground portion of the poll was based on answers from 636 adults living in the 15 battleground states. The entire nationwide poll was based on responses from 987 registered voters.
Other recent national polls find Biden with a much larger lead. Polls from ABC News/Washington Post and CBS News/YouGov conducted last week each found Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump. The RealClearPolitics average of national polls finds Biden with a lead of 7.7 percentage points.
