Former President Barack Obama is set to reenter the political fray with a long-awaited endorsement of presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but his magic touch has failed to rub off on others in the past, and it is unclear how much of a boost he can provide his ex-vice president.
Some Democrats fear he could even overshadow Biden.
“Biden definitely needs this endorsement,” said a Democratic strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “But you don’t want people drawing comparisons between Obama and Biden on the stump.”
Democrats are seeking to present a united front, with Bernie Sanders endorsing Biden on Monday. Obama would add another feather in Biden’s cap as the presidential race moves from the primaries to the general election against President Trump. But Obama hasn’t always been successful in transferring his popularity to other candidates.
Obama won terms in 2008 and 2012 thanks in part to high turnout from minority and millennial voters, with Democrats holding three-fifths majorities in both houses of Congress for the first half of his initial term. But the party struggled to replicate that turnout, even as Obama crisscrossed the country to help Democrats in down-ballot races. Republicans made major gains in both midterm elections, 2010 and 2014. All told, Democrats lost over 1,000 state legislative seats, 12 governorships, and 62 House seats while Obama was in office. He left behind GOP majorities in the House and Senate.
Nor was Obama able to pull Hillary Clinton across the finish line in 2016, despite the hype his endorsement received. The New York Times reported in June of that year that Clinton’s campaign saw “Mr. Obama as a one-of-a-kind resource — a popular sitting president — in the looming campaign to defeat Donald J. Trump.” The outlet said, “Mr. Obama will be on his own, cutting a path across white suburbs in the Midwest and Rust Belt and spending time in African-American communities in states like North Carolina and Virginia.” Iowa and New Hampshire were also on his list.
The Clinton campaign saw Obama as a “net asset in Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and other battleground states that he carried in 2008 and 2012 and where he is arguably more popular now,” the New York Times wrote. Her spokesman, Brian Fallon, was quoted as saying, “There is not a battleground state on the map where President Obama is not an asset.”
Clinton lost Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. She lost Wisconsin, where she appeared with Obama to announce his endorsement. Obama did help deliver some of the promised states, but Clinton’s losses in the Rust Belt cost her the presidency. Clinton was unable to turn out young voters to the same degree as Obama, having lost that demographic to Sanders in the Democratic primaries. But she similarly struggled with black voters, despite winning handily with this bloc during the primary campaign. Democrats are worried about a similar enthusiasm gap with Biden.
This coronavirus-shorted campaign against an incumbent president could be different. “Obama’s endorsement will be critical for Biden’s campaign,” said veteran Democratic pollster Douglas Schoen. “In fact, it is surprising he hasn’t endorsed Biden yet.”
Obama delayed his endorsement of Biden, reportedly believing he could be more helpful with progressives if he did not move against Sanders during the primaries. Biden has claimed he requested Obama stay out of the race so the nominee could win “on their own merits.” Trump has tried to make an issue of Obama’s neutrality. “I don’t know why President Obama hasn’t supported Joe Biden a long time ago,” the president told reporters at the White House. “There’s something he feels is wrong.”
“Ordinarily, the main risk to consider here would be that Obama could overshadow Biden, but these are not ordinary times and this isn’t an ordinary campaign,” said Kevin Madden, a strategist who has advised presidential campaigns. “Obama could actually pull Biden out of the shadows, since Biden has been pushed out of the frame during this crisis. If Obama can help him unite and excite activist Democrats while also promoting the promise of a return to normalcy or stability, there is very little downside risk.”
Obama has yet to make his Biden endorsement official.
