On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted that he had spoken with Joe Biden to congratulate the former vice president on his apparent presidential election victory. The call is highly significant.
For a start, Johnson and the British government he leads are well aware that this call will infuriate President Trump. They know that Trump still believes he has been reelected and is determined to follow through on his supposed win. Considering the importance of the U.S. government to British interests, Johnson’s call thus evinces Britain’s high confidence that Biden will indeed enter office as president at midday on Jan. 20, 2021. Were London to have doubts as to whether Trump’s legal challenges would succeed or fail, this call would likely never have been made. At the very least, Johnson would not have tweeted about the call and its content.
That leads us to another point of note because Johnson’s tweet seems designed to separate Johnson from the Trump administration. Consider what the prime minister actually said.
I just spoke to @JoeBiden to congratulate him on his election. I look forward to strengthening the partnership between our countries and to working with him on our shared priorities – from tackling climate change, to promoting democracy and building back better from the pandemic.
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) November 10, 2020
First, there’s a certainty to the language: Johnson said he spoke to Biden to “congratulate him on his election,” not to “congratulate him on his presumptive election.” More interestingly, Johnson focused on “climate change” and “promoting democracy” as two priorities he is particularly interested in pursuing alongside Biden. These issues represent a striking shift from the Trump administration’s foreign policy priorities. Trump has withdrawn America from the Paris climate accord and has been far less interested in democracy promotion than in cultivating personal relationships with foreign leaders. Based on my understanding of how the British Foreign Office works, I cannot see how these two issues being referenced is accidental or coincidental. It must be deliberate. In essence, Johnson is signaling a turning of the page.
Of course, seeing as this tweet will obviously risk alienating the Trump administration for the two months it remains in office, why is Johnson doing this?
It’s because Johnson is judging that it is more important to British interests to secure an early positive start with an incoming four-year Biden administration than it is to maintain positive ties with the outgoing administration. Johnson will have his fingers crossed that any petulant retaliation Trump may now pursue against British interests will be restrained by Congress and Trump’s top advisers. He will also have confidence that U.S.-U.K. security and intelligence links will survive any political furor.
This is not to say, however, that Johnson senses some kind of upcoming mind meld with Biden.
On the contrary, the British government knows that Johnson’s populist style and ardent Brexit stance are judged skeptically by Biden and his foreign policy team. In the context of recent public pushback by senior Democrats over Britain’s post-Brexit negotiating stance with the European Union, Johnson does not want Biden to enter office and immediately exert pressure on London. This takes on added importance in that Britain believes, correctly, that Biden’s foreign policy team will quickly seek to strengthen U.S. relations with the big two European Union players, France and Germany. Johnson knows that Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel will ask Biden to put some pressure on Johnson to make concessions in the U.K.-EU trade talks.
In short, Johnson’s tweet represents two key British government assessments. First, a near certainty that Biden will enter office as president on Jan. 20, 2021. Second, that hesitating to turn the relationship page from Trump to Biden would risk alienating America’s most powerful ally for the next four years, even, that is, if doing so alienates the president for the next two months.
