Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party gave Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party a big win on Monday. It should assist the Conservatives in their quest to win a majority in the upcoming Dec. 12 election.
The Brexit Party did so by agreeing not to run candidates in Conservative Party-held seats. As the only major party actively promising to fulfill the 2016 Brexit referendum vote, the Conservatives are well-placed to use Farage’s decision to consolidate the pro-leave vote in their favor. Considering the frustration of many Labour-inclined voters to their party’s hesitant Brexit policy under current leader Jeremy Corbyn, the Conservatives should expect to increase their majorities in constituencies that voted to leave the European Union in 2016.
But it gets better for the Conservatives.
The Brexit Party’s decision to run candidates in non-Conservative held seats is also likely to help Johnson. In key seats in central and northern England, there are many Labour voters who fervently want to leave the EU, but who cannot stomach voting “Tory” or Conservative. That antipathy towards the Conservatives flows from lingering resentment towards the Conservative economic reform program under former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Yet the Brexit Party gives these pro-Brexit Labour voters an opportunity to register their continuing support for Brexit without voting Conservative. When we dig into the Conservative priority target seats, those the party is most optimistic about winning in this election, the Brexit Party’s possible influence quickly becomes clear.
Take three of the top 10 Conservative targets.
In Ashfield, a constituency that voted 70% leave, the Brexit Party’s charismatic candidate Martin Daubney should improve on the UK Independence Party’s poor showing in 2017. With just 441 votes separating Labour’s Member of Parliament from their Conservative challenger, Labour can ill-afford hemorrhaging any of their 2017 vote share.
In Dudley North, which voted 71% leave, Labour has a majority of just 22 votes. The Brexit Party is running a well-known candidate in the seat and should be able to fray the edges of that lead. Again, the Conservatives stand to benefit.
In Newcastle-under-Lyme, which voted 60% leave, Labour’s majority is just 30 votes. And the Brexit Party’s precursor, the UK Independence Party did not run a candidate in 2017. The Conservatives should thus be able to capitalize on even the most marginal of voter movement from Labour to the Brexit Party.
All of this leaves Labour in a tough position. While the party intends to mobilize massive voter registration, Corbyn is broadly unpopular with the electorate. The Brexit Party’s decision now means it won’t be enough for Labour to simply focus on attracting new votes. They’ll have to work even harder just to hold those they won in 2017.
For the Conservative Party, and for America, Farage’s decision is good news.
