Arizona has not contributed its Electoral College votes to the Democratic presidential candidate this century, but that could change this year.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which is dedicated to tracking and polling political campaigns, announced on Thursday that fresh data led them to change Arizona’s rating from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.” Their decision, in part, hinged on a new poll that featured 3,479 interviews with voters in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina.
Recommended Stories
The poll shows Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Trump: 45% to 40%. The former vice president also has a slight advantage over Trump in the two other swing states, Florida and North Carolina, but both fell within the margin of error.
Should Biden wrangle Arizona away from Trump, marking the first time the state goes blue since President Bill Clinton’s reelection, it would allow him to lose a known blue state or a toss-up and still secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the presidency, according to the Cook Political Report’s updated analysis. In fact, this means Biden could achieve victory in the Electoral College solely with states that are either “solid,” “likely,” or “lean” Democrat and would not need to win any “toss up” contests such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. Cook shows Biden securing 290 votes this way, while Trump comes in at 187.
In order for Trump to win reelection, the Cook Political Report predicts that the president would need to win all of the states that are favored for Republicans, all of the “toss up” contests, and snag at least 22 Electoral College votes from the “lean Democrat” side.
Trump won the presidential election in 2016, scoring 403 votes in the Electoral College and his Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, got 227. However, Clinton won 48.2% of the popular vote, 2 points more than Trump, who got 46.1%. Overall, Clinton received nearly 3 million more votes than Trump on a national scale.
Earlier this month, the Cook Political Report had the Electoral College vote at 279 to 187 in Biden’s favor, which was a drop from where he was earlier this summer when they had him at a 308-187 advantage. Election Day is Nov. 3.
