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FIGHTING ON TWO FRONTS: The U.S. has accelerated both its military campaign and diplomatic pressure in what increasingly feels like a desperate effort forge a peace deal with the Taliban that would end America’s longest war, now in its 18th year. The strategy that President Trump reluctantly signed on to in summer 2017 — aimed at convincing the Taliban it had no choice but to reconcile with the Afghan government — has yet to show any tangible results. Now Trump is counting on veteran diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad to breathe new life into the effort. “We are talking about peace over there with the Taliban, with the group of people that have a lot to do with it,” Trump said yesterday in a Washington Post interview. “They would like to see it after all these years, and we’ll see what happens.” KHALILZAD’S SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY: Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, has been working at a furious pace, “reaching out to many top Taliban figures as he tries to launch peace negotiations to end the war before Trump can simply pull the plug and order U.S. troops home,” reports NBC News this morning, quoting say foreign diplomats. Khalilzad is “testing all channels,” the report says. That includes meeting in the United Arab Emirates with a militant claiming to be an associate of Mullah Yaqub, son of late Taliban leader Mullah Omar and now one of two deputies to the current Taliban leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada. “I am talking to all interested parties, all Afghan groups,” said Khalilzad at a news conference in Kabul earlier this month. “I think there is an opportunity for reconciliation and peace.” He added, “The Taliban are saying they do not believe they can succeed militarily, that they would like to see the problems that remain, resolved by peaceful means, by political negotiations.” BLOOD AND TREASURE: The new sense of urgency comes as the U.S. is losing on average one American service member a month in Afghanistan, despite playing a supporting role for Afghan forces who are supposed to be doing the front-line fighting. Yesterday, the U.S. reported that three more American troops were killed, and three others wounded when an improvised explosive device detonated near Ghazni city, in the largest loss of like this year. A U.S. contractor was also wounded. The number of deaths so far in 2018 now totals 13: Eleven from hostile fire either in combat or from an “insider attack,” as well as one from “friendly fire” and one from a “non-combat” incident. The U.S. does not release comprehensive figures on the number of wounded. “It’s a very sad situation when I look — we have incredible people, incredible fighters,” Trump said in the Post interview. “We’re going to see what happens. But it’s very sad. I just heard about the three people this morning. Terrible.” WHAT IS TRUMP’S GUT TELLING HIM? The idea that Trump may be losing patience with the intractable war is no trivial concern. Recall that it took months of convincing before Trump finally announced last year the U.S. would double down in an effort to break the will of the Taliban. “My original instinct was to pull out. And historically, I like following my instincts,” Trump said in his August 21 address to the nation unveiling the new Afghanistan strategy. Now, more than a year later, Trump is again citing the judgment of others for the decision to keep U.S. troops deployed, while hedging how long he will stick it out. “A little bit too early to say what’s going to happen,” Trump told the Post. “We’re there because virtually every expert that I have and speak to say if we don’t go there, they’re going to be fighting over here.” And later in the interview, in a discussion of the Federal Reserve, Trump again referred to confidence in his instincts, overcomplicated analysis. “I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.” RUSH TO FAILURE: While the U.S. has insisted that any peace deal will be under the leadership of the Afghan government, Khalilzad’s full court press with the Taliban has rattled some allies of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. “Peace talks also must not be driven by superficial deadlines urged by a U.S. administration anxious to be done with the conflict,” writes Nader Nadery, a former senior adviser to Afghan Ghani, in an op-ed in the Washington Post this week. “History is instructive: The Nixon administration in the early 1970s, eager to end the Vietnam War, secretly pursued a ‘decent interval’ strategy that would ensure a buffer of a year or two between a U.S. military withdrawal and the collapse of the South Vietnamese government. Rushing for a settlement with the Taliban instead of doing the arduous work of building peace could be disastrous,” Nadery warned. UNDERCOUNTING THE ENEMY: An analysis by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal concludes U.S. military has “grossly underestimated the size and scope of the Taliban, in stating the group’s strength as between 28,000 and 40,000 fighters in its latest report. “[T]he Taliban’s strength is likely to number well over 100,000 fighters. US military and intelligence officials who track the Taliban agree. One official told LWJ that the Taliban likely has more than 70,000 fighters and tens of thousands of support personnel and supporters. Another said that the Taliban ‘could not possibly do what it has done with merely 40,000 fighters; double or more realistically triple that number, and you are closer to the truth.’” Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten). Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense. |
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HAPPENING TODAY, SO LONG PAUL: Defense Secretary Jim Mattis hosts an awards ceremony honoring outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan for his public service and enduring support of the U.S. military, this afternoon in the Pentagon Briefing Room. The event will be streamed live at 3:45 p.m. www.defense.gov/Watch/Live-Events INHOFE SURGICALLY TARGETS ‘THE CAP’: The 2019 defense budget fight has barely begun but Sen. Jim Inhofe is ready to do an end run. The Senate Armed Services chairman said Tuesday he aims to eliminate Budget Control Act spending limits on defense next year while leaving caps on all other federal funding firmly in place. BCA caps are set to snap back into place and take a $71 billion bite out of defense spending and slash the other federal spending. An exemption for defense could be added to the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which is crafted by the Armed Services Committee, Inhofe said. “Initially, we were just wanting to avoid a BCA [cut]. At my insistence, we changed that and instead we’ll just make military exempt from the BCA because that doesn’t get your conservatives saying that they’d be opposed to this,” Inhofe said in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “Most people agree that if we right now are being outgunned in many areas by China and Russia, then they are willing to spend more on the military.” PEELING OFF DEMS: The plan is likely to face fierce resistance from Democrats, who have brokered hard-fought deals in past years to raise both defense and nondefense caps. Any exemption for defense would only be a longshot on Capitol Hill after Democrats won the House majority in the midterm elections. “The House members are all in districts and so we will naturally get some districts where they have a defense contractor that employs three-fourths of the people in that district and so we’ll be able to pick up sum by segregating [them from the party],” Inhofe said. WHAT’S THE TOP LINE? President Trump has ordered the Pentagon to pare down its $733 billion defense budget plan to $700 billion. But Inhofe said the original $733 billion should be a minimum that ideally should be bumped up by 3-5 percent — potentially adding tens of billions of dollars next year. Inhofe does not believe Trump really wants to slash spending. “Well, I don’t think that he does. He has a lot of advisers and the advisers are looking out after his interest and trying to be consistent with his philosophy. And I suspect that his advisers don’t realize that a $733 billion budget is a zero-growth budget for 2020,” he said during the interview Tuesday. Total defense spending was $716 billion this year, and once 2 percent inflation is factored, the Pentagon’s original $733 billion plan would not mean any new money. BUILDING SUPPORT: Inhofe’s Armed Services Committee yesterday rolled out a powerful argument for hiking defense spending for the third year in a row. The co-chairs of the blue-ribbon Commission on the National Defense Strategy, Eric Edelman and retired Adm. Gary Roughead, testified on its findings. “It was the unanimous view of all commissioners that we are now on the cusp of a national security emergency because of the waning of our military advantages and the dangers that the current world presents: perhaps the most complex, volatile and difficult security environment that the United States has ever faced,” said Edelman, an ambassador in the Bush administration. The commission has recommended the three-to-five percent growth in defense spending next year as a way to avert potential disaster, including a U.S. loss in a war with Russia or China. “I believe that there is a sense that the last two years of growth have fixed the problems. And nothing could be further from the truth, whether it’s in readiness, whether it’s in conventional modernization or nuclear modernization,” said Roughead, who served as the chief of naval operations. DEM SKEPTICISM: But Sen. Elizabeth Warren gave a preview of what could be strong Democratic pushback, and perhaps a platform for a future presidential bid. “The United States will spend more than $700 billion on defense this year alone. That’s more in real terms than President Ronald Reagan spent during the Cold War, it’s more than everything the federal government spends on highways, education, medical research, border security, housing, the FBI, disaster relief, the State Department, foreign aid, everything else in the discretionary budget put together,” Warren said. “And I’ve heard a lot of talk about a hollow military in recent years. But if we continue to prioritize investment in defense at the expense of infrastructure, education, basic research, then we will have a hollow country,” she said. INHOFE’S PRIORITIES: During the interview Tuesday, Inhofe also laid out his priorities as Armed Services chairman, the position he took over following John McCain’s death in August. Here is a rundown of what he wants to accomplish in 2019:
YEMEN VOTE: The Senate is set for a vote on legislation that will terminate U.S. support for the war in Yemen amid a growing desire in Congress to punish Saudi Arabia for the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The bill, sponsored by Sens. Mike Lee, Chris Murphy, and Bernie Sanders, is set to hit the floor as lawmakers receive a briefing about Khashoggi’s death and the war in Yemen today from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. The bill was blocked earlier this year, but Khashoggi’s death will likely push it closer to passage. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker said he has not made up his mind and is waiting to hear what Mattis, Pompeo, and potentially CIA Director Gina Haspel, say at the briefing. “I do think the briefing will be very important,” said Corker. “There has to be some price to pay, and that price to pay hasn’t occurred yet. It would really be best if they would name him as being responsible and take action themselves before Thursday.” UNCLASSIFIED KHASHOGGI REPORT: As the Yemen vote nears, the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. Jack Reed, and two of his Democratic colleagues, Sens. Martin Heinrich and Ron Wyden, have also introduced a bill that would require the Trump administration to turn over an unclassified report on Khashoggi’s killing. It would require Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats to submit the report to Congress within 30 days on “who carried out, participated in, ordered, or were otherwise complicit.” “Instead of standing up for American values and basic human rights, President Trump has largely ignored this brutal murder. It is inconceivable that such an operation would be conducted without the awareness of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. So we are calling for an unclassified, public assessment of who ordered the killing and why,” Reed said in a statement. GETTING AROUND A WALL OF OPPOSITION: Republicans and Democrats aren’t budging in their fight over how much money to spend on President Trump’s border wall, which is increasing the chances of a stalemate that could lead to a partial government shutdown next month. Trump has drawn a red line on the wall, telling GOP appropriators and leaders he wants $5 billion included in the final fiscal year 2019 spending bill. The Homeland Security spending bill is where Republicans would like to include that money, and that bill needs to be passed by Dec. 7 to avert a partial government closure. But in his interview with the Post, Trump also hinted he may just have the military build more barriers, rather than shut down the government. “Now, if we don’t get it, will I get it done another way? I might get it done another way,” Trump said “There are other potential ways that I can do it. You saw what we did with the military, just coming in with the barbed wire and the fencing, and various other things.” MAYBE HE WILL, MAYBE HE WON’T: President Trump says a planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 summit is now pending following the Russian seizure of three Ukrainian naval ships and 24 sailors last week. “Maybe I won’t have the meeting. Maybe I won’t even have the meeting. We’re going to see,” Trump told the Post. The president said he is awaiting a “full report” from his national security team about Russia’s seizure of the Ukrainian ships and the team’s findings will be “very determinative” as to whether or not he meets with Putin later this week in Argentina. FLAIL-EX AT WALTER REED: There were tense moments followed by mass confusion yesterday afternoon at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, when the base was put on lockdown after what was first described as an active shooter drill, then a “real world active shooter,” and finally as a mistaken false alarm. “NSAB ACTIVE SHOOTER BLDG.19 *** LOCKDOWN LOCKDOWN *** THIS IS NOT A DRILL,” said one early all-caps warning emailed to the everyone on the base. Military and civilian workers could not get off on or off the base for two hours, while the conflicting reports were sorted out. By day’s end, the Navy admitted the whole thing was a screw-up, the “result of the improper use of a mass notification system by a tenant command aboard the installation.” “While preparing for an upcoming drill, the notification system was inadvertently enacted without containing the words ‘EXERCISE’ or ‘DRILL,’” said a statement from the Navy. “Individuals who saw the mass notification statement immediately notified NSA Bethesda security, where they responded accordingly and instituted an installation-wide active shooter response. On further investigation, they determined that the improper use of the system was the root cause and secured from the active-shooter response.” USS MCCAIN ON THE MEND: The guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain, which collided with a merchant ship in the summer of 2017, killing 10 sailors, is leaving drydock after extensive maintenance. It’s preparing to resume service in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. The Navy has posted a time-lapse video of the ship as it departs a dry dock and transits to a pier. CHINESE FORTUNE COOKIE WISDOM: President Trump is risking “a repetition” of the great military and economic catastrophes of the 20th century, a top Chinese diplomat warned yesterday. “The lessons of history are still there,” Cui Tiankai, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, told Reuters. “In the last century, we had two world wars, and, in between them, the Great Depression. I don’t think anybody should really try to have a repetition of history. These things should never happen again, so people have to act in a responsible way.” THE RUNDOWN Washington Examiner: Pompeo on the verge of major border deal with Mexico Roll Call: Yemen Resolution Could Prompt Unruly Foreign Policy Floor Debate New York Times: 3 U.S. Soldiers Died in Afghanistan: Why This Fight Drags On Washington Examiner: Colonel fired for flying F-16 to see woman who told him he made her ‘tingle’ Task and Purpose: US Military Says It Can’t Take Out Remaining ISIS Fighters Because They’re Hiding In Tunnels Bloomberg: U.S. Sanctions Nicaraguan First Lady Following Bolton Threat Washington Post: The Khashoggi killing had roots in a cutthroat Saudi family feud Defense News: As defense budgets tighten, a new engine is critical to US Army aviation’s future Breaking Defense: Pentagon Builds Mega-Database For Spectrum & Electronic Warfare New York Times: 3 U.S. Soldiers Died in Afghanistan: Why This Fight Drags On Foreign Policy: Senate Summons Pompeo and Mattis Over Saudi Arabia Military.com: Turkey’s President Lashes Out at US Troop Presence in Syria Reuters: EU foreign policy chief determined to preserve Iran nuclear deal Air Force Magazine: Tyndall to Host First Exercise Since Hurricane Michael Ravaged Base Business Insider: The 27 most powerful images of the US military in 2018 |
Calendar7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 55th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention with Ellen Lord, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, and Gen. Paul Selva, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. crows.org 9 a.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Commission on the National Defense Strategy Discusses Its Report to Congress with Ambassador Eric Edelman and Retired Adm. Gary Roughead. said-jhu.edu 9 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. Soft Power in a Sharp Power World: Countering Coercion and Information Warfare with Reps. Francis Rooney and Don Beyer. usip.org 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Maritime Security Dialogue: The Return of Great Power Competition and the Second Fleet with Vice Adm. Andrew “Woody” Lewis. Csis.org 12 p.m. 201 Waterfront St., National Harbor. Vice Adm. Raquel Bono, director, Defense Health Agency, speaks at the Society of Federal Health Professionals annual meeting, at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center. 2 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis welcomes Lithuanian Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis to the Pentagon. THURSDAY | NOV. 29 7:30 a.m. 801 Mt Vernon Pl. NW. 55th Annual AOC International Symposium and Convention with Rep. Don Bacon. crows.org 8:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. China’s Power: Up for Debate with Adm. Philip Davidson, Commander of United States Indo-Pacific Command. csis.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on Nominations of Thomas McCaffery to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs, and William Bookless to be Principal Deputy Administrator for the National Nuclear Security Administration. armed-services.senate.gov 2 p.m. Rayburn 2172. U.S. Policy Toward Syria (Part II) with James Jeffrey, Special Representative for Syria Engagement. foreignaffairs.house.gov 6 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Spiritual Health and Military Suicide Prevention. heritage.org FRIDAY | NOV. 30 9:30 a.m. 1001 16th St. NW. Saudi Arabia and UAE: Regional Adventures and U.S. Interests with Sen. Rand Paul. ff.org MONDAY | DEC. 3 8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. Robotics Division Quarterly Meeting. ndia.org 9:30 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Press Freedom Book Talk: Lindsey Hilsum on war correspondent Marie Colvin. press.org 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Book Discussion of The Kremlin Letters: Stalin’s Wartime Correspondence with Churchill and Roosevelt with Author David Reynolds. wilsoncenter.org 1:30 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Belarus and Eastern Europe Security Challenges. wilsoncenter.org 5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Rape as a Weapon of War: A Conversation with Former Kosovo President Atifete Jahjaga. csis.org TUESDAY | DEC. 4 8 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. PONI 2018 Winter Conference. csis.org 8:30 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Arctic and U.S. National Security with Sen. Lisa Murkowski; Sen. Dan Sullivan; Gen. Terrence O’Shaughnessy, U.S. Northern Command; and Adm. Karl Schultz, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. wilsoncenter.org 9:30 a.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on the Nominations of Lt. Gen. Kenneth McKenzie to be Commander of U.S. Central Command, and Lt. Gen. Richard Clarke to be Commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 1957 E St. NW. A Discussion With the Department of Justice’s Domestic Counterterrorism Coordinator Thomas Brzozowski. extremism.gwu.edu 10 a.m. 300 First St. SE. INF: Deterrence, Arms Control, and Great Power Competition Panel Discussion. mitchellaerospacepower.org 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. Voices of the Afghan People. usip.org 12:30 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Asia Transnational Threats Forum: Counterterrorism in Asia. brookings.edu 5:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. 50 Years of Propaganda – A Glimpse into North Korean Domestic Initiatives. stimson.org 6 p.m. 1425 K St. NW. NDIA Washington, D.C. Chapter Holiday Networking Social. ndia.org WEDNESDAY | DEC. 5 8 a.m. Defense Forum Washington 2018 with Thomas Modly, Under Secretary of the Navy; Veronica Daigle, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Readiness; and Reps. Rob Wittman and Joe Courtney. usni.org 8:30 a.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. NW. The First DOD Audit Report: Breakfast Discussion with Defense Department Comptroller David Norquist. cftni.org 9 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Stabilizing Syria: Toward a Human Security Framework. atlanticcouncil.org 11 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Book Launch of “Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Militant History” with Author Max Abrahms. csis.org 2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. DMGS-Kennan Distinguished Speaker Series: A Conversation with Bellingcat’s Aric Toler on Open-Source Reporting. wilsoncenter.org 2:30 p.m. Dirksen G-50. Hearing on Navy and Marine Corps Readiness with Navy Secretary Richard Spencer; Gen. Robert Neller, Marine Corps Commandant; and Adm. Bill Moran, Vice Chief Of Naval Operations. armed-services.senate.gov 3 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Diverse Boots on the Ground: EU and NATO Effectiveness. wilsoncenter.org |
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