Republicans’ stranglehold on North Carolina is loosening, according to a new poll.
Presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a 7 percentage point advantage on President Trump in North Carolina less than 100 days before Election Day, a Marist/NBC News survey released on Monday found.
Trump beat 2016 Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the swing state’s 15 electoral votes by 3.7 points four years ago. But the poll’s finding regarding Biden’s 51%-44% lead this cycle is reflected in data averages. RealClearPolitics puts the former vice president and 36-year Delaware senator ahead by 3 points.
Biden’s 4-point spike in the Marist/NBC News study since it was last conducted in March was propelled by his popularity with independents, 49% to 41%, and voters who said they dislike both him and Trump, 52% to 27%. That’s on top of his deep reservoirs of support with black voters and women.
Meanwhile, Trump retains his status with white voters, men, and white voters without a college degree, as well as the intensity of his base’s enthusiasm.
“Biden is in good shape in North Carolina as long as the coronavirus or race relations is top of mind,” Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff told NBC News. “His downside is if focus shifts to the economy, where Trump has the advantage.”
The Marist study also bears bad news for Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.
Tillis, a first-term incumbent, is trailing Democratic opponent Cal Cunningham in their Cook Political Report toss-up-rated race by 9 points, 50% to 41%.
Tillis was elected to the Senate in 2014 when the then-North Carolina House speaker defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by 1.5 points. He’s now behind Cunningham, a former state senator, by an average of 5.2 points, by RealClearPolitics’s count.
North Carolina is holding a gubernatorial contest in November, too.
Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is in front of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest by 20 points, 58% to 38%. Cooper got into a public spat with Trump during the spring over his refusal to guarantee the president could host a traditional, arena-style convention in Charlotte in August.
Marist spoke to 882 North Carolina registered voters between July 14-22 via landlines and cellphones. The researchers’ results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points.
